SWIO: ANAIS - Post-Tropical

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SWIO: ANAIS - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:02 pm

Here we go with a possible Cyclone in the Southern Indian Ocean.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 91S

#2 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 11, 2012 10:32 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 74.4E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 72.5E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111632Z
AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. FORMATIVE BANDING IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111859Z OSCAT IMAGE SHOWS 30-35 KNOT WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC ON THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES
WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED THREE DEGREES NORTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
FAVORABLE (>28 DEGREES CELSIUS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED
WINDS IN RECENT SCATTEROMETRY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED
TO MEDIUM.
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#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 12, 2012 10:30 am

Why is this listed as an SPAC storm when it seems to be the TD in the SWIO with 30 knt winds?
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SWIO: Tropical Deppresion 01

#4 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:08 am

Image

Image
Its a bit pixelated, but it will have to do for now :D

Translated with google translate

BULLETIN OF 12 OCTOBER 4:19 p.m. LOCAL:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING THE MEETING, AND NO THREAT CYCLONE IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01-20122013
PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 999 HPA
POSITION OCTOBER 12 TO 16 HOURS LOCAL: 7.9 SOUTH / EAST 71.0
(SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE ELEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion: 2190 KM AREA: NORTH EAST
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 15 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 24H: 9.2 S / 68.1 E

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 48H: 10.7 S / 64.5 E

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 72H: 11.9 S / 61.3 E

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 96H: 12.7 S / 57.7 E

TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 120H: 13.1 S / 53.1 E


WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS TO CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF THE PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

-------------------------------------------------

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN TO LOCAL 10:30 p.m.
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Re: SWIO: 01 - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby Iune » Fri Oct 12, 2012 4:33 pm

Next name to be used is Anais...
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Re: SWIO: 01 - Tropical Depression

#6 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:05 pm

Image

forecast to strengthen into a cyclone!


WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ONE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 8.9S 70.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9S 70.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 10.0S 68.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 10.9S 66.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.6S 65.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.2S 63.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 13.1S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 13.9S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.3S 53.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 8.9S 70.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
STRENGTHENING SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 122213Z TRMM 85GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A
MICROWAVE EYE HAS RECENTLY FORMED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS
IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE
TRMM IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE 01S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT JUST NORTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (5 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 01S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S SHOULD INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER
TAU 72, VWS IS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE, RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SWIO: 01 - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 12, 2012 11:12 pm

20121013 0000 -8.9 -70.2 T3.0/3.0 01S NONAME
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#8 Postby Chickenzilla » Sat Oct 13, 2012 4:19 am

I think that this tropical cyclone has been named by Meteo-France.

Image
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#9 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 13, 2012 4:48 am

Moderate Tropical Storm Anias

Image
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#10 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 13, 2012 4:50 am

Translated with google Translate

BULLETIN OF 13 OCTOBER AT 10:46 LOCAL:

THERE IS NO ALERT DURING THE MEETING, AND NO THREAT CYCLONE IS PLANNED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
**************************************************

NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM ANAIS
PRESSURE ESTIMATED CENTER: 993 HPA
POSITION ON OCTOBER 13 AT 10 AM LOCAL: 9.5 SOUTH / EAST 69.3
(NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

DISTANCE FROM COAST Reunion: 1935 KM AREA: NORTH EAST
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTHWEST 15 KM / H

THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROVIDED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS:

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 24H: 10.9 S / 65.6 E

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 48H: 12.1 S / 63.1 E

MODERATE TROPICAL STORM,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 72H: 13.0 S / 60.0 E

TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 96H: 14.3 S / 56.6 E

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE,
CENTRE FOR POSITIONING IN 120H: 15.4 S / 54.4 E


WARNING: THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE PREVIOUS TO CONSIDER WITH EXTREME CAUTION IN VIEW OF THEIR UNCERTAINTY. THEY RELATE TO THE CENTRE OF THE PHENOMENON, WITHOUT REGARD TO ITS EXTENSION.

-------------------------------------------------

THIS BULLETIN IS NOW COMPLETE.
NEXT BULLETIN TO LOCAL 5:00 p.m.
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#11 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:23 am

13/1200 UTC 10.0S 68.6E T4.0/4.0 ANAIS
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Meow

#12 Postby Meow » Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:08 am

This is officially a moderate tropical storm now, not a tropical cyclone yet.
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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Moderate Tropical Storm

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 10:39 am

Image

jtwc agrees with dvorak...upgraded to our first cyclone of the season!


WTXS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 10.0S 68.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 68.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 10.9S 66.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 11.7S 65.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 12.1S 64.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 12.7S 63.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 13.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 14.6S 56.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 15.4S 52.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 68.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHWEST
OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED, CONSOLIDATED, AND FORMED A 17-NM
EYE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD DIVERGENT
CHANNEL. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER
TAU 48, INCREASING VWS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE
MODELS DIVERGE. WBAR IS THE LEFT OUTLIER TRACKING THE VORTEX INTO THE
RIDGE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140300Z AND 141500Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Moderate Tropical Storm

#14 Postby P.K. » Sat Oct 13, 2012 1:47 pm

45kt MTS at 12Z to a 65kt TC at 18Z, impressive.

WTIO20 FMEE 131842
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/10/2012
AT
1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/1 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND).
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 13/10/2012 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ANAIS) 977 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 67.8 E
(TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 190 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE,
EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE 65KT AND PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A 20NM RADIUS FROM THE
CENTRE.
STORM 50/60KT AND VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40NM RADIUS FROM THE
CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 160
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE
NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 250 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT
.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2012/10/14 AT 06 UTC:
11.2 S / 66.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2012/10/14 AT 18 UTC:
11.9 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATIONS:
SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED VERY RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.=
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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Tropical Cyclone 01

#15 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 13, 2012 11:25 pm

up to 85 knots 1 min...
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NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Tropical Cyclone 01

#16 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 14, 2012 6:22 am

euro6208 wrote:up to 85 knots 1 min...


Really, i think i have to disagree with that :darrow:

Image
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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Tropical Cyclone 01

#17 Postby P.K. » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:22 am

Upgraded again at 12Z, up to 95kts. Earliest ITC on record as well.

WTIO30 FMEE 141219

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/1/20122013
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ANAIS)

2.A POSITION 2012/10/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4 S / 65.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/18 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 280 SW: 330 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 180 SW: 200 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/10/15 00 UTC: 12.2 S / 64.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/10/15 12 UTC: 13.3 S / 63.7 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/10/16 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 62.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2012/10/16 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 60.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/10/17 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 59.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/10/17 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 57.6 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/10/18 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/10/19 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0-, CI=6.0-
ANAIS INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY SINCE 00Z AND BECOMES THE HISTORICAL
EARLIER INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN.

ON THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL CONTEXT (EFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR).

MONDAY , SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVER MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL.
AS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOWEVER FAVOURABLE, SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKENING SLOWLY IN A FIRST TIME THEN QUICKLY ON AND AFTER TUESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.

13/0000Z DETERMINISTIC NWP IFS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALADIN AND
FORECAST A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY AND A SOUTHWARDS
RECURVING MOVEMENT AT THE ENDING TERM OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.

ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE EPS SPREAD IS NOW LARGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH
SEVERAL MEMBERS THAT FORECAST THIS SOUTHWARDS RECURVING TRACK AT
MEDIUM RANGE.
RSMC LA REUNION PRIVILEGES NOW THIS SCENARIO.

SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODELS (GFS, ARPEGE) FORECAST HOWEVER A MORE
MERIDIAN AND SOUTHERN TRACK AS UKMO NWP KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY
WESTWARDS.=
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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Tropical Cyclone 01

#18 Postby Laplacian » Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:48 am

Looks very impressive on 12Z water vapor imagery:

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... /Anais.png

But the "die" are cast...too much northwesterly wind shear (averaged components for four pressure altitudes in the upper troposphere minus the averaged components for four pressure altitudes in the lower troposphere) to the east of Madagascar (forecast track... https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... ttrack.gif .

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... wm5shr.GIF
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Re: SWIO: ANAIS - Tropical Cyclone 01

#19 Postby Laplacian » Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:46 am

Forgive me, folks, because I'm relatively new here...I have a question to ask that's been bothering me. I see that people often post content that merely is a copy and paste of complete discussions from NHC, JTWC, etc. These copy-and-paste posts do not contain any analysis or insight from the person who posted.

Is the assumption here that there are people in this forum who are incapable of finding official discussions on the Web? If so, then my question is answered.

As a newcomer, I find such posts distracting. When I was teaching, I warned my students against the "diamond in the cow-dung heap" approach on exams. My warning was meant to discourage students from writing everything they knew about the topic associated with a specific exam question (these students expected me to go through all the text in order to find the nugget that perhaps answered the question).

I get the same feeling when I see an official discussion merely copied and pasted in a thread here. Wouldn't it be better just to copy and paste the relevant portion of a discussion and then comment about this relevant portion using individual insight and supporting images?

If I'm way out in left field on this one, I sincerely apologize. But I have to admit it's frustrating to see lines and lines and lines of copied and pasted text without any comment or insight. Again, I apologize if my observations as a newcomer are off base. All I'm saying is that it would be nice to see more posts with more focus. Thanks for understanding.
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#20 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:49 am

Looks to be about 120 kt (1-min) based on ADT and other Dvorak analyses.

This would be equivalent to a major hurricane in the Atlantic in April, correct?
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