ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

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ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 12, 2012 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BECOMES TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN...GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO
YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF RAFAEL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND
THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
SLOW STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FORMED A CLOSED CIRCULATION...ALBEIT ONE WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM NOW MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 43 KT AND SMFR WINDS OF 35 KT NEAR ST. VINCENT...AND BASED ON
THESE DATA THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL. MOST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
RELAXING A BIT AS THE UPPER-LOW SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.
ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SUBSEQUENTLY...AS THE SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW DECREASES...THE
CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 320/8. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND
THEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS SHOWN AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THERE IS A LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN...AND HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING AHEAD OF
A CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
SOLUTION THAT FAILS TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AS QUICKLY. THE NHC
TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED...BUT
IS FASTER THAN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2330Z 15.0N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.2N 63.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 18.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.6N 64.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 21.4N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 32.5N 65.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 12, 2012 9:35 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

...RAFAEL SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 63.4W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH
SLOW STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012

RAFAEL HAS A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. LESS CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT IT IS
LIKELY THAT SUCH WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 325/9. RAFAEL IS CURRENTLY
SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND A MID/UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER RAFAEL GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE CENTER PASSING
NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH OF RAFAEL AT
ABOUT 48 HR...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK DOWN AS A POWERFUL
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH
SHOULD RECURVE RAFAEL INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON THIS...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE DETAILS THAT THE GFS AND
CANDIAN SHOW A MUCH FASTER FORWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE THAN
THE ECMWF AND UKMET. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.
OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE OLD TRACK AND NEAR
THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR DUE TO
CONTINUED SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A
DECREASE IN SHEAR FROM 24-48 HR...WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWING INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE GLOBAL
MODELS AGREE ON INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 48 HR. DESPITE THIS...THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL RELY MORE ON THE FORECAST
SHEAR AND SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HR. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 120 HR AND LIKELY BE COMPLETE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 63.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.6N 63.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 18.4N 64.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 20.3N 65.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 22.1N 66.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 26.0N 67.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 34.5N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 44.5N 55.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 5:16 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 64.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

RAFAEL CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE CLOUD
SHIELD...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED EAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE IN A BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE
FLYING AT 5000 FT WERE 40 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE BETWEEN 35-40
KT...THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER VALUES COULD BE RAIN
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 35 KT.

RAFAEL APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...
WITH THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE MOTION STILL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
320/08. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED
SLOWLY POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA. BETWEEN
36-72 HOURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS RAFAEL JOGGING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. BY DAY 3...A COMPLEX
BUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE
RAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD
ACCELERATION. WHILE THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS GENERALLY MINIMAL...THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL. ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS
A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF RAFAEL THAT IS CAPTURED BY THE ABOVE-
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE WEAKER VERSIONS OF THE STORM THAT ARE STEERED MORE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BY A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AS A RESULT OF SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/UKMET
SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAFAEL IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD LOW
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHEARS OUT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION FOR A DAY OR TWO...THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS
ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO PRECLUDE MUCH
STRENGTHENING. REGARDLESS OF THAT...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND THAT TIME.
DESPITE THIS...HWRF...GFDL...AND SHIPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RAFAEL REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
INCREASED A BIT OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED AT
DAY 5 IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 15.7N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.0N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.8N 65.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 20.5N 65.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 22.2N 66.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 26.4N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 35.8N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 45.0N 56.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:03 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 63.9W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:48 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES AS RAFAEL MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 64.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES HAS
BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
TODAY...AND REACH CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE A
LITTLE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. DATA FROM THE
LATEST AIRCRAFT MISSION SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 35 KT...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINING 1006 MB. GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS INTENSIFICATION CONTINUING THROUGH 72 HOURS DESPITE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES BY THAT TIME...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING A HURRICANE IN
ABOUT 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40
KT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH
48 HOURS...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME.

THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/08. EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE
IS SOME SIZEABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS SHOWS A DUE
NORTHWARD MOTION AS IT MAINTAINS THE UPPER-LOW WEST OF RAFAEL A
LITTLE LONGER WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WEAKEN THE LOW FASTER AND
SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES
IN BETWEEN...SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE FIRST 24
HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT LEFT TURN ON DAY 2 AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF RAFAEL. THE NHC FORECAST DURING THIS
TIME REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE
TRACK UNCERTAINTY GROWS LARGER. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER
COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...
SHOWING RAFAEL ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE GFDL
AND HWRF...WHOSE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS OUTPUT. ON
THE OTHER HAND BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW RAFAEL INTERACTING
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND
INDICATE A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST DURING
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER
COMPARED TO EVEN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...
CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE 96-HOUR POSITIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE THAN
800 MILES APART.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 15.9N 64.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.4N 64.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 19.2N 65.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 21.0N 66.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 22.6N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 28.0N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 38.0N 61.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 45.0N 54.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 12:58 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AS IT SLOWLY ORGANIZES...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 63.9W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM SE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.9 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS RAFAEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9
MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY
TONIGHT...AND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY
42060 IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY...
AND REACH CULEBRA AND VIEQUES TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 3:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY
LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE
STATION ON BARBUDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 MPH...
56 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
AND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 56 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER LOCATION AND A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE NOTED TO THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO
3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE OBSERVED
STRENGTHENING...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS
THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE MARKEDLY AS RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH
SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY DAY 5.

WITH THE RECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 015/10 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND
ADDITIONAL JUMPS IN THE CENTER LOCATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK
FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER
HAS RESULTED IN AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BY
ABOUT A DEGREE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...DUE TO DETAIL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...THE
ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE EVELOPE AND LIES
BETWEEN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.3N 63.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 18.7N 63.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 20.9N 64.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 22.6N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 24.4N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 50.5N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 6:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...CENTER OF RAFAEL NOW BETWEEN ST. MARTIN AND ST. CROIX...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 63.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ST. MARTIN RECENTLY
REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. ST. MARTIN RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 13, 2012 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...CENTER OF RAFAEL PASSES WEST OF ST. MARTIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 63.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM WNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF ST. CROIX
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION
ON BARBUDA RECENTLY REPORTED 6-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 37 MPH...
59 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...69 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF
RAFAEL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THESE REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY ORGANIZED
NEAR THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB BASED ON DATA
FROM ST. MARTIN...WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT FIX. BASED ON THESE DATA AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY
FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.

THE CENTER HAS JUMPED AROUND SOME DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION IS NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. RAFAEL
SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS AS A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. AFTER THAT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BREAK THE RIDGE AND ALLOW
RAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. WHILE ALL THE MODELS AGREE
WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...
ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE. THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAS THE WEAKEST DEPICTION OF THE STORM...REMAINS THE
SLOWEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS AND THE
CANADIAN MODELS...WHICH FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER RAFAEL...REMAIN
THE FASTEST AND MOST NORTHERLY. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN COMPROMISING BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IT
LIES NEAR...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

RAFAEL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. AFTER
THAT...RAFAEL SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR WHICH SHOULD HALT
STRENGTHENING AND START A WEAKENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST
TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...AND THIS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER IF
THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
OCCURS.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 18.4N 63.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 19.9N 64.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.6N 65.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 23.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 25.8N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 33.5N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 44.5N 55.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 50.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 5:20 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH DISCONTINUED...
...SQUALLS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 63.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
ANGUILLA THROUGH LATE MORNING.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW IN THE WARNING AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN ALSO INDICATES A
NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS GETTING BETTER
ORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE...INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS
LESSENED. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STILL ELONGATED IN A
NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...GIVEN THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL
AND THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADY AT T3.1/47 KT
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT. A FAIR PRESENTATION IN THE
REFLECTIVITY AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT
RAFAEL HAS STARTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY SLIDES
EASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAFAEL...AND ALLOW
CYCLONE TO RECURVE INTO THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...
EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A
SLIGHT OUTLIER AFTER 72 HOURS...AND IS THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL OF THE
MODELS DUE ITS MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

RAFAEL REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BRIEF PERIODS WHERE THE SHEAR ABATES...SUCH AS
HAS BEEN HAPPENING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT WILL ALLOW
FOR RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES
THE STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL
SHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
MODELS. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...IF
NOT SOONER...WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT.

USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS
EXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 19.4N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:58 am

Tropical Storm Watch issued for Bermuda

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.1W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 850 MI...1370 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THE
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF
CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 997 MB...WHICH IS SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO.
THE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
STORM. FOR THE FIRST TIME...STRONG WINDS WERE MEASURED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER ON A PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND
RAIN CORRECTED SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 45 KT. BASED OF THIS
DATA...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT.

RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT IS EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. NEARLY ALL OF
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS RAFAEL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
SOME WEAKENING. RAFAEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN ITS TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE WITHIN 96
HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10 KT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST
AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SPEED
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT KEEPS RAFAEL WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER GFS/GFDL SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 20.0N 64.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 21.5N 65.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 23.2N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 25.5N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 29.1N 64.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 38.7N 58.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 48.5N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1200Z 50.5N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:05 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...OUTER BANDS OF RAFAEL STILL PRODUCING RAIN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 64.4W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH BERMUDA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41043...
LOCATED ABOUT 75 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...HAS RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO
47 MPH...75 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 3:43 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAIN BANDS FROM RAFAEL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 64.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 800 MI...1290 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

AFTER IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION
OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTLY AFTER
THE RELEASE OF THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 64 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT. BASED ON THESE
DATA AND 1800 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50
KT. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. MOST OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FROM RAFAEL TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE LACK OF A TIGHT INNER CORE AND THE
MARGINAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN...HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT
RAFAEL WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE.

RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/9 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. RAFAEL SHOULD
MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY TUESDAY...A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST
TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ON
THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST RAFAEL WILL GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 1200 UTC GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED EASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 20.7N 64.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 21.8N 65.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 23.5N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 26.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 29.3N 64.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 39.5N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 48.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 19/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 6:42 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 64.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:44 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM NNE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4
TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
ON SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MORE
DISTINCT CURVED BAND FEATURES NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...
NORTHEAST...AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AND AN
SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 59 KT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CORRECTING FOR RAINFALL REDUCES THIS SFMR VALUE TO 54 KT...BUT IT
IS PRESUMED THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT.

RAFAEL HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO
STRONG OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND
THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT RAFAEL COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE IN THE SHORT TERM. IN 2-3
DAYS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT
AS A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...GLOBAL
MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.

THE MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 330/9...AND THE FORECAST
STEERING SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. RAFAEL IS
EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. BY LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE
FORWARD SPEED PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS OR SO...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER MOTION
THAN MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LEANS TOWARD THE
LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 21.6N 64.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 22.8N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 31.5N 62.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 40.5N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 48.0N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:32 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.3W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND
A LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB...T3.5/55 KT
FROM SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES ARE T3.4/53 KT...BUT WITH RAW DATA
T-NUMBERS OF T4.3/72 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
RAFAEL COULD ALREADY BE A HURRICANE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THIS
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING RAFAEL AROUND 1200 UTC...AND DATA FROM THAT MISSION
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09 KT. THERE REMAINS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING...
AND THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF
THE U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY...RAFAEL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACCELERATE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE AS SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER LOW OVER THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. DESPITE THESE SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEN EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL TURNING EASTWARD OVER
THE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.

DESPITE THE 21 KT OF SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL...
THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND
IMPROVE...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE THE OUTFLOW IS BEING
ENHANCED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 40W
LONGITUDE. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SO AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. BY DAYS 2-3...
HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT AS
THE U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES RAFAEL...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE
GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY DAY 4...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
RAFAEL TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH A COLD FRONT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.

SPECIAL THANKS TO THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO PULLED
DOUBLE DUTY YESTERDAY BY HELPING LOCATE A LIGHT AIRCRAFT AND ITS
PASSENGERS THAT WENT DOWN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WELL DONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 22.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 23.9N 65.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 26.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 29.6N 63.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 33.8N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 42.6N 50.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 48.2N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 49.3N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:53 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 65.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
TODAY...AND COULD APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH....AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:52 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA
BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

RAFAEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
CENTER EMBEDDED IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.
THERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE
SATELITE IMAGERY...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED
BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE PLANE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 AND 75 KT
DURING PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH MAXIMUM
CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 55-57 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT
RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM DUE TO MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER
WATER AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

RAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THE STORM SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD VERY SOON AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THIS
TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD
IN A FEW DAYS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 23.0N 65.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 24.5N 65.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 27.4N 64.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.9N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 35.4N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 43.5N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 47.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 47.0N 20.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 65.8W
ABOUT 610 MI...985 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL REMAIN WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH BERMUDA BY LATE TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SWELLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA BEGINNING LATER TODAY
AND WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:53 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL TURNS NORTHWARD...
...NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND RAFAEL COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

THE ORGANIZATION OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THIS
MORNING. MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT SFMR SURFACE
WIND MEASUREMENTS...RAFAEL REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. NOAA AND
U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE EN ROUTE TO THE STORM
AND SHOULD PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA THIS EVENING.

DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR
RAFAEL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. HOWEVER...
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE
LESSENING AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RAFAEL WILL BE
MOVING OVER DECREASING SSTS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO
EXTRATROPICAL STATUS WITHIN 48 HOURS...AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT
WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND ATLANTIC
CANADA. THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
COMPLETE WITHIN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

IT APPEARS THAT RAFAEL HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN. THE
STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS
IT IS STEERED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NHC
FORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND THE FLORIDA
STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE...AND VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 24.1N 65.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 26.1N 65.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 29.4N 64.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 33.7N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 39.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 48.0N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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