ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:33 pm

HURRICANE RAFAEL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
645 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT RAFAEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND ITS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
NOW NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H. THIS MAKES RAFAEL THE NINTH HURRICANE
OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON.

SUMMARY OF 645 PM AST...2245 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 65.7W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.7 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A NORTHWARD MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...
140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED
STORM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAFAEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...AND PORTIONS OF
THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:46 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL HEADED NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 65.5W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
WILL PASS NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

AFTER CHANGING LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...RAFAEL HAS UNDERGONE A
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EPISODE THIS EVENING. FLIGHT-LEVEL...
SFMR...AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO ABOUT 75 KT. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AND
REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE
NEAR THE CORE. RAFAEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS
CIRCULATION...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR.
SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS...ALONG
WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING TO
COMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH RAFAEL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR ABOUT 010/10. THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE. A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS APPROACHING
RAFAEL...AND THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS
TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...POST-TROPICAL
RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC AS IT INTERACTS WITH...AND ABSORBS...ANOTHER LARGE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THAT REGION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 25.1N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 27.6N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 31.6N 62.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 36.4N 59.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 41.2N 54.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 48.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 48.5N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 49.5N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 5:11 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAFAEL MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...
...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 65.0W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD PASS JUST EAST
OF BERMUDA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED MORE THAN 150 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS OCCURRED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE...
HOWEVER...AND THAT IS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHIFTED INTO
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CYCLONE. AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS
ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT...
T4.0/65 KT...AND ADT CI OF T4.8/85 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS...RESPECTIVELY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL
QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 25 KT.

RAFAEL IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD SPEED...OR 015/14 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK AND RATIONALE
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES. RAFAEL IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST ALONG 33-34N LATITUDE.
UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z FROM BERMUDA INDICATED 24-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS
OF 40-60 METERS FROM 700-400 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE IS
ERODING AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST APPROACHES RAFAEL LATER
TODAY...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
PASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY 48
HOURS...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND MERGE
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AND WELL AWAY FROM
CANADA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE.

DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE MERGES
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND MOVES OVER SUB-20C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AND ABUNDANCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE
STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...WHICH WILL KEEP RAFAEL AS A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND INTENSITY
MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 26.6N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 29.4N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 33.8N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 38.8N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 43.3N 49.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z 49.7N 32.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0600Z 49.3N 28.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 46.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 7:00 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAFAEL CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.0 WEST. RAFAEL
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
BY TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING TREND LIKELY TO BEGIN BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOULD BE IN
THE CENTER SHORTLY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
205 MILES...335 KM. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES
EAST OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...90 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:54 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...OUTER RAINBANDS FROM RAFAEL APPROACHING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 64.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON
SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A
FEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO
80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA. WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON
WITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT
IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH
PREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE
INITIAL WINDS.

RAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21.
THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE
PASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED
DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST
LIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE
INTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO
VERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 28.6N 64.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:51 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
200 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...RAINS FROM RAFAEL HAVE BEGUN IN BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 64.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
BY TOMORROW. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 3:38 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN BERMUDA THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY TRANSITIONED FROM A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO AN EYE PATTERN...WITH A RECENT MICROWAVE
PASS SHOWING A SOLID INNER CORE. THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SOME
STRENGTHENING...BUT THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS
REPORTED THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAD COME DOWN A BIT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE PLANE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KT...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN
AVERAGE GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND. A NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL BE
IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INTENSITY.
HOWEVER...SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET DUE TO GRADUALLY
COOLING WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE LGEM MODEL BUT A BIT BELOW
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION BETWEEN 24-36H DUE TO INTERACTION OF RAFAEL WITH A COLD
FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING A BIT LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 020/23.
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO PREDICTED STEERING FLOW WITH THE
HURRICANE MOVING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND TO MOVE FASTER. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND EVEN THE SPEED
DIFFERENCES ARE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE
CONSENSUS...BUT STILL LIES ON THE SPEEDIER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR
THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL WILL COMPLETE A LARGE CYCLONIC
LOOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.6N 63.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 34.0N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 43.1N 50.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1800Z 46.6N 40.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1800Z 52.5N 29.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1800Z 50.5N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1800Z 44.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING IN BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 63.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. RAFAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL SHOULD
PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RAFAEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND RAFAEL COULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE
WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WAS REPORTED AT
BERMUDA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS BERMUDA.

WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY RAFAEL ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND
THE EASTERN-FACING BEACHES OF THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2012 9:48 pm

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012

NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED
THAT RAFAEL WAS MORE OR LESS MAINTINING ITS INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
THE CYCLONE WAS BECOMING TILTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE
TILT OF THE VORTEX SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING WILL SOON OCCUR. COOLER
WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALSO INDUCE
WEAKENING. THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING
EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC
SOURCES.

RAFAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
NOW 030/25. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. RAFAEL OR ITS POST-TROPICAL
COUNTERPART SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE FLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND
ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS
PREDICTION...AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 32.4N 62.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 36.2N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 40.9N 54.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 44.9N 46.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0000Z 48.5N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:26 am

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012

RAFAEL IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH AN
INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.
ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING HAS PROBABLY OCCURRED SINCE THE LAST
AIRCRAFT MISSION...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 70 KT.
WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...SOME DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24H AND SHOULD
COMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF RAFAEL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH
THE AID OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...SO THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON
THESE MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/29. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. IN A FEW
DAYS...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL SHOULD MOVE IN A LARGE CYCLONIC LOOP
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AS IT WHIPS AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTER THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 35.2N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 43.0N 50.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/1800Z 46.5N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/0600Z 49.0N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/0600Z 54.5N 28.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/0600Z 43.0N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2012 12:05 pm

HURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012

RAFAEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE
TO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE REDUCED TO 65 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD....HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RAFAEL IS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW
SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN COMPLETE A
CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. GUIDANCE FROM THE
OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS HELPFUL FOR BOTH THE TRACK AND WIND
RADII FORECASTS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 37.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 18/1200Z 44.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0000Z 48.0N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1200Z 51.0N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1200Z 54.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1200Z 47.5N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 43.5N 29.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL : RAFAEL - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:55 pm

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012

ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF
RAFAEL THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME THAT OF AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. EARLIER ASCAT
DATA SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT IS
ANALYZED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...RAFAEL
HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE ASCAT DATA INDICATED A LARGE AREA
OF 50-60 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
BUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RAFAEL HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN
COMPLETE A CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 40.2N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 18/0600Z 42.9N 50.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 18/1800Z 46.0N 41.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 19/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 19/1800Z 52.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 20/1800Z 54.0N 33.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 21/1800Z 47.6N 33.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 28.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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