ARABIAN SEA: MURJAN - Cyclonic Storm

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ARABIAN SEA: MURJAN - Cyclonic Storm

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 18, 2012 8:02 pm

This was Invest 95B for a few hours but they changed it to 95A since is now at the Arabian Sea. Let's see what this system does down the road.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html
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#2 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 19, 2012 1:17 pm

BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION OVER ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 5.0N TO 11.5N EAST OF LONG 70.5E.
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#3 Postby Meow » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:51 am

Well, it is still 95B on the NRL website.
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#4 Postby alhddar » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:02 am

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#5 Postby alhddar » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:04 am

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: INVEST 95A

#6 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:24 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.2N 68.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM EAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 220144Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
FRAGMENTED, CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY-
DEFINED CENTER. A 211902Z OCEANSAT IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS. THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DYNAMIC
MODELS FORECAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. BASED ON
THE BROAD LLCC AND LACK OF CONSOLIDATION EVIDENT IN RECENT TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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#7 Postby alhddar » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:23 pm

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#8 Postby alhddar » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:24 pm

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#9 Postby Meow » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:18 am

It is now ARB 01, the second depression assigned by the IMD in 2012.

Bulletin No. ARB 01/2012/01
Dated: 23.10. 2012 , Time of issue: 1130 hours IST

Sub: Depression over southeast Arabian Sea.

Latest satellite imagery indicates that a depression has formed over southeast and adjoining southwest and central Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 23rd October, 2012 near latitude 11.00N and longitude 65.0.0E, about 800 km west of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep). The system is likely to intensify further and move west-northwestwards towards Somalia and Yemen coast during next 72 hrs.


Under the influence of this system, no adverse weather is likely along and off west coast of India and Lakshadweep area as the system would move away from Indian coast


The next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 23rd October, 2012.
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#10 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:15 pm

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ARB 01 - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby Iune » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:15 pm

It's now a Deep Depression from the IMD

THE DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED WESTWARDS, INTENSIFIED INTO A DEEP
DEPRESSION AND LAY CENTRED AT 1500 UTC OF TODAY, THE 23RD OCTOBER, 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 11.50N AND
LONGITUDE 63.5.0E, ABOUT 1000 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311) AND 1050 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SOCOTRA ISLAND(41494). IT WOULD MOVE WESTWARDS TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS.
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#12 Postby alhddar » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:21 am

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#13 Postby alhddar » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:44 am

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#14 Postby Meow » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:16 am

It is now Cyclonic Storm Murjan, the first named storm in the North Indian Ocean in 2012. :cheesy:

The Deep Depression over southwest Arabian Sea moved west-southwestwards, intensified into a cyclonic storm, MURJAN and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 24th October, 2012 near latitude 10.50N and longitude 56.50E, about 1750 km west-southwest of Amini Divi (Lakshadweep) and about 370 km southeast of Socotra Island. It would move west-southwestwards and cross Somalia coast between lat. 8.00 and 9.50 N around morning of 26th October 2012.
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#15 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:18 am

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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ARB 01 - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:21 pm

Yes, first Tropical Storm equivalent of the North Indian season:

WTIO31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (MURJAN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (MURJAN) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.5N 53.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 53.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 10.0N 52.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 9.4N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 8.8N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 53.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (MURJAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED (IR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH
FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 242151Z AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A DEFINED SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES AND IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-
LIVED, TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO THE HORN OF AFRICA, MAKING
LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24 WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED
BEFORE BEING DISSIPATED BY LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THE SOLID STEERING
MECHANISM AND THE PERSISTENCE IN STORM MOTION; FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND 260300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ARB 01 - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Macrocane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:25 pm

TROPICAL STORM ‘MURJAN’ ADVISORY NO FIVE ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 25

THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MURJAN’ MOVED FURTHER WESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 25 TH
OCTOBER, 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 10.50 N AND LONGITUDE 54.0 E, ABOUT 2050 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AMINI
DIVI (43311) AND ABOUT 250 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 400 KM EAST OF
SCUSCIUBAN (63220) SOMALIA. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOMALIA COAST NEAR
LAT. 5.00 N AROUND 2100 UTC OF 25TH OCTOBER 2012.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

25-10-2012/0000 10.5/54.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
25-10-2012/0600 10.3/53.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
25-10-2012/1200 10.1/52.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
25-10-2012/1800 9.8/51.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
26-10-2012/0000 9.5/50.0 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
26-10-2012/1200 8.6/48.5 30-40 GUSTING TO 40 LOW

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -70 C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 7.0ºN to 13.5ºN AND TO THE WEST OF LONG 55.5ºE AND ADJOINING
SOMALIA COAST. THE CONVECTION SHOWS CURVED BAND FEATURES DISAPPEARING. HOWEVER, THE
MAXIMUM INTENSE CONVECTION LIES IN THE SOUTHWEST SECTOR.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS HIGH. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

REMARK:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE > 1. AS
PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE IN PHASE 2 DURING
NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 26-28º C. OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING
WESTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50-80 KJ/CM2
SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2
OVER SOMALIA COAST AND ADJOINING SEAS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE LIES ALONG 15.0º N AND HENCE LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOWS SLIGHT DECREASE DURING PAST SIX HRS. HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AS WELL AS LOWER LEVEL RELATIVE VORTICITY. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSYEM CENTRE AND THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING PAST 24 HRS.
CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS SOMALIA COAST DURING NEXT 36 HRS. AS PER THESE MODELS, THERE
IS INDICATION OF GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT COMES NEARER TO COAST.
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ARB 01 - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:16 am

WTIO31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (MURJAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (MURJAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 9.6N 51.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 51.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 9.0N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 8.5N 46.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 9.4N 50.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (MURJAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
SOUTH OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WITH RAPIDLY DISSIPATING DEEP CONVECTION;
HOWEVER, THE LLCC REMAINS TIGHTLY-WRAPPED WITH A WELL-DEFINED
CENTER, WHICH IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SOMALIA COAST. A 251042Z
AMSU IMAGE SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS
BASED PRIMARILY ON MSI. A 250543Z ASCAT IMAGE AND A 250417Z SSMIS
WIND PRODUCT SHOWED ONLY 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS, HOWEVER, DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS. TC 01A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN
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Re: ARABIAN SEA: ARB 01 - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Macrocane » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:20 am

TROPICAL STORM ‘MURJAN’ ADVISORY NO NINE ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 25TH
OCTOBER 2012 BASED ON 1200 UTC CHARTS OF 25TH OCTOBER 2012.
THE CYCLONIC STORM ‘MURJAN’ MOVED SOUTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 25TH
OCTOBER, 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 9.5°N AND LONGITUDE 51.5°E, ABOUT 2300 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF AMINI DIVI (43311), 430 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOCOTRA ISLAND (41494) AND 160 KM EAST OF SCUSCIUBAN (63220), SOMALIA. IT WOULD MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOMALIA COAST NEAR LAT. 9.0° N BETWEEN 1800 & 2100 UTC OF 25 TH
OCTOBER 2012.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES, ESTIMATED
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:


25-10-2012/1200 9.5/51.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
25-10-2012/1800 9.0/50.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
26-10-2012/0000 8.5/49.5 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
26-10-2012/0600 8.0/48.5 55-65 GUSTING TO 75 DEEP DEPRESSION
26-10-2012/1200 7.5/47.5 30-40 GUSTING TO 40 LOW

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS T 2.5. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURE (CTT) IS ABOUT -70°C. ASSOCIATED BROKEN MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER
THE ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LAT 7.0ºN to 14.0ºN AND TO THE WEST OF LONG 54.5ºE AND ADJOINING SOMALIA.
SUSTAINED MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS
AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THE STATE OF THE SEA AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE IS HIGH. THE ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1000 HPA.

AT 1200 UTC OF 25TH SOCOTRA ISLAND REPORTED 1006 HPA MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE (MSLP) AND 070/30 KTS
WIND .

REMARK:
THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 2 WITH AMPLITUDE > 1. AS PER
STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE IN PHASE 2 DURING NEXT 3
DAYS. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 26-28º C. OVER SOUTHWEST AND ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL
ARABIAN SEA. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50-80 KJ/CM2
AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2

OVER SOMALIA COAST AND ADJOINING SEAS. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 16.0º N AND
HENCE LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS LOWER LEVEL
RELATIVE VORTICITY AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HRS. THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS MODERATE (05-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSYEM CENTRE
AND THERE HAS BEEN FALL IN WIND SHEAR BY 5-10 KTS. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH LAND SURFACE.
CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOVEMENT AND CROSSING SOMALIA COAST BETWEEN 251800 AND 260000 UTC WITHIN LAT 10 TO 7°N. AS PER
THESE MODELS, THERE IS INDICATION OF GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT COMES NEARER TO COAST.
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#20 Postby Meow » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:45 pm

Cyclonic Storm is better for the title.
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