WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Meow

WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#1 Postby Meow » Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:53 am

Image

Southeast of Yap.
Last edited by Meow on Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:57 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#2 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:34 am

Image

it is in a low shear environment but models especially euro doesn't develop this until it reaches the south china sea...

Image

pretty nice signature...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 19, 2012 11:57 am

euro has this developing as it enters the south china sea, strengthening while making a beeline towards hainan island/southern china...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:02 am

120 Hrs...
Image

144 hrs
Image

216 hrs
Image

alot of people will be affected by Son-Tinh...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1380
Age: 25
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:

Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#5 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:02 pm

0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.

Meow

#6 Postby Meow » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:51 am

Finally got some possibility to develop.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.5N 135.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 95NM SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
DUE TO CONVERGENT LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. A 210436Z AMSU IMAGE
INDICATES FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING ONLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU SHOW SUSTAINED EASTERLY
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A SHIP OBSERVATION 200NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION INDICATES A WESTERLY WIND
BURST WITH WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 17 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 21/00Z PTRO SOUNDING
ALSO DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE COLUMN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes   

Meow

#7 Postby Meow » Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:31 am

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
...
SUMMARY.
...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 06N 135E WNW SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2784
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#8 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:21 am

GFS has been showing a TC formation east of PI since last week. Maybe this is it.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:25 am

slowly taking shape...i expect our 24th tropical cyclone of the season very soon...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

#10 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:42 am

The next name to be used is Son Tinh

Image
0 likes   

Meow

#11 Postby Meow » Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:53 am

ECMWF:

Image
25 Oct, a TS near the central Philippines

Image
29 Oct, a TY near Hanoi, Vietnam
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#12 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:26 pm

Image

looks like it might get upgraded to Medium if not then a TCFA.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:58 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.5N
135.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 132.7E, APPROXIMATELY 115NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BROAD BUT SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 212348Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE INDICATES CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING BROADLY INTO THE LLCC WITH A WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PALAU SHOW SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 05 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLP NEAR 1006MB. A NUMBER OF
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP VALUES NEAR
1006MB, INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NOW LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WITH THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PREDICTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2784
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#14 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:34 am

JMA:


TD
Issued at 07:05 UTC, 22 October 2012

<Analyses at 22/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°10'(9.2°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°25'(10.4°)
E130°50'(130.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#15 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:21 am

does anybody know what happened to MTSAT 2?? JMA is saying it's in operational observation but the IR images have been from MTSAT 1R for about a week now...

anyway, 92W looking good right now, strong mid-level circulation... new convection firing off but i'm not sure if that's over the LLCC... at this rate, there is still a chance this system gets named before hitting the Philippines...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
0 likes   

phwxenthusiast
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 635
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Holbrook, NY (Long Island)

#16 Postby phwxenthusiast » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:35 am

i'll answer my own question... :D

JMA will be conducting maintenance with the ground system thru December of 2012 so MTSAT 1R will be brought back to service for the meantime... :)
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 722
Age: 19
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

#17 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:14 am

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 221030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 132.5E TO 11.0N 124.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.8N
132.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E, APPROXIMATELY 220NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. A 220900Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED
CURVED BANDING AND THE SSMIS WIND PRODUCT SHOWS 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
NOW WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A NUMBER OF RECENT SHIP
OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LLCC INDICATE SLP VALUES NEAR 1006MB,
INDICATIVE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH A POINT SOURCE
NOW LOCATED OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. DYNAMIC
MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS WITH THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PREDICTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
231030Z.//
NNNN
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:36 am

TPPN10 PGTW 221510

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 22/1430Z

C. 9.0N

D. 129.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .50 FRAGMENTED WRAP YIELDS A DT
OF 2.0. MET WAS N/A; PT WAS 1.5. DBO PT AS BROKEN CONVECTION IS
WRAPPING VERY BROADLY AROUND THE LLCC AND A HIGH CONFIDENCE
DVORAK IS DIFFICULT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LONG
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

RobWESTPACWX
WestPACMet
WestPACMet
Posts: 1615
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
Location: Tokyo, Japan
Contact:

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#19 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:57 am

This very well could be our next TS, Son-Tinh, the links below is to an article and video I wrote up here today. Hope its useful!

http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/10/22/son-tinh-developing-and-heading-towards-the-pi-meanwhile-japan-watches-a-strong-storm/
0 likes   
Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 12874
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam U.S.A

Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#20 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:07 am

euro no longer has this developing into a typhoon before it slams vietnam but we will see...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest