WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

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#41 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:01 pm

Typhoon Son-Tinh, 15th TY of the 2012 season

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#42 Postby phwxenthusiast » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:52 pm

CMA radar from the Paracel Islands (i'm guessing Sansha City?) taking a shot of Son-Tinh's developing eyewall... the eye passed just south of the islands 3 hours ago and is now heading near Hainan...

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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#43 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:22 pm

now 65 knots 1 min, our 15th typhoon of the season!

Image

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 261804Z AMSU IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING,
WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION FOUND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED AMSU IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 65 KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND WEAK (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE LATEST UPPER
LEVEL SOUNDING FROM XISHA DAO SHOWS THAT 24W IS ENTRAINING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 DEGREES
CELSIUS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE SOLID STEERING RIDGE AND
GOOD AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 125
NM SPREAD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE LANDFALL SCENARIO, CALLING FOR TY 24W TO DECELERATE AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM. GFDN IS NOW THE SOLE OUTLIER, TRACKING THE
SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO LAOS. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK
OF 85 KTS BY TAU 24. ALTHOUGH TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER
MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS
SHOULD OFFSET ANY MITIGATING FACTORS. BY TAU 36, TY 24W SHOULD BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COAST OF VIETNAM, WITH RAPID
WEAKENING COMMENCING AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 24W IS FORECAST TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY
OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION AND TURN
THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. IN GENERAL, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID
WEAKENING WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF INTERACTION
BETWEEN TY 24W AND THE SUB-TROPICAL WESTERLIES, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re:

#44 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:26 pm

phwxenthusiast wrote:CMA radar from the Paracel Islands (i'm guessing Sansha City?) taking a shot of Son-Tinh's developing eyewall... the eye passed just south of the islands 3 hours ago and is now heading near Hainan...



wow clearly a typhoon in this image with an eye present...i wouldn't be surprised if this was stronger...
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#45 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:54 pm

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.9N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.7N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 110.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SON-TINH) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 18 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 270027Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS GOOD BANDING, HOWEVER
THE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
AND WEAK (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONALLY, THE
MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION REVEALS A FOUR-DEGREE WARM CORE
ANOMALY, INDICATIVE OF A STRONG SECONDARY CIRCULATION. A SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 24W WILL MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATER AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF TONKIN, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE GOOD ENVIRONMENT NOTED
IN THE ANALYSIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION, WITH A PEAK
FORECAST INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 36, SUB-
TROPICAL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM,
RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
GROWING SPREAD IN THE TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE INTERACTION WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL WESTERLIES. GFDN IS THE
SOLE OUTLIER, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO LAOS. TY 24W IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. BASED ON THE TIGHT
GROUPING OF MODELS THROUGH LANDFALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#46 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:07 pm

Image

Image

i see you!
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#47 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:26 am

Son-Tinh looks like it's rapidly intensifying!
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#48 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:49 am

yup looks like it... eye getting much clearer now... Cat-2 isn't out of the reach, i reckon... :eek: SST's in this area are around 27-28C not that warm but still supportive...

Image

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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#49 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:54 am

no way this is only 65 knots! it is likely 85 or 90 knots right now...



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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#50 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:23 am

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#51 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:39 am

wow, it looks really good now!!! kinda wondering why ADT values are still below 4 though; granted raw is about 6.1...

unfortunately, Vietnam radars are almost useless with too much noise and poor coverage.. :(
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#52 Postby Meow » Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:53 am

Son-Tinh, the thirteenth typhoon in 2012, surpassed Vicente and became the strongest tropical cyclone in the South China Sea in 2012.

Image

TY 1223 (SON-TINH)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 27 October 2012

<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N17°30'(17.5°)
E108°55'(108.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E106°50'(106.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E105°35'(105.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N20°25'(20.4°)
E105°20'(105.3°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#53 Postby Crostorm » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:23 am

Image
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#54 Postby phwxenthusiast » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:29 am

Looks like this'll be upgraded to Cat 3 (110kt) by JTWC in their next warning... :eek:
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Re:

#55 Postby Meow » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:39 am

phwxenthusiast wrote:Looks like this'll be upgraded to Cat 3 (110kt) by JTWC in their next warning... :eek:


They already did.

Image

WTPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 108.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 108.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.6N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.7N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.6N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 21.3N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.6N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 108.3E.
TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARS AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z
AND 281500Z. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#56 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:07 am

Image

WOW! the west pacific never fails to impress! another classic typhoon...category 3! major major rapid intensification :double:
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#57 Postby Meow » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:59 am

euro6208 wrote:WOW! the west pacific never fails to impress! another classic typhoon...category 3! major major rapid intensification :double:

There is another term for this— explosive intensification. Son-Tinh really did this.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#58 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:25 am

rain bands from son-tinh affecting nearly 9 million people in hainan island alone...this doesn't include vietnam and southern china... :double:
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#59 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:04 pm

Name Current Wind Max Wind ACE

SON-TINH 110 110 5.9875

ACE going up up and up...
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

#60 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:03 pm

Image


still a category 3 with 100 knots but weakening...heavy rains and strong winds impacting vietnam


WTPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.4N 107.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.4N 107.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.3N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.3N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 21.3N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 21.6N 107.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 107.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND
290300Z.
//
NNNN


WDPN31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND
OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. A 272223Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS
IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS
FROM KNES AND RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE,
AND IS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
JUST TO THE NORTH ARE PROGRESSIVELY INCREASING AND DIVERGENT WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEEN WANING OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS WHILE POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TY 24W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT
MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM PRIOR TO TAU 24.
UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS UP-WIND OF VIETNAM SHOW MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH. AFTER
LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL DEFLECT POLEWARD AS THE STR FLATTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS A RESULT OF INCREASING VWS AND
AN INFLUX OF RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM CHINA.
NEVERTHELESS, TY 24W WILL STILL BE AT A MODEST TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES HANOI. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 NEAR THE CHINESE BORDER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION
AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 24, AFTER WHICH THE MODELS SPREAD DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTERACTION OF THE SYSTEM WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND TERRAIN EFFECTS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
REMNANTS OF TY 24W MAY CURVE MORE SHARPLY, AND RE-EMERGE BACK OVER
THE GULF OF TONKIN. IN THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM WOULD BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST UP TO TAU 24.
//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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