WPAC: SON-TINH - Typhoon

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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#21 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:50 pm

1.5 from both PGTW and KNES so an upgrade is imminent but it's convective organization is deteriorating...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#22 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:33 am

Image

WTPN21 PGTW 231030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221021Z OCT 12//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 221030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 129.6E TO 11.5N 123.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 231000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6N 128.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 131.3E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 128.5E, APPROXIMATELY 575 SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
AREA OF FORMATIVE BUT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
LOOSELY INTO AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER. A 230416Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL IS ELONGATED WITH A POSSIBLE SECONDARY VORTEX,
WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 230121Z ASCAT PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES NO SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY OF THE SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
241030Z. //
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#23 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:46 am

Image

spreading heavy rains over visayas and mindanao...
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#24 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:44 am

Heres my latest vid guys!

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NeJI8AdZRY[/youtube]

Image
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#25 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:08 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#26 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:10 pm

Upgraded by JMA to Tropical Storm SON-TINH.

TS 1223 (SON-TINH)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 23 October 2012
<Analyses at 23/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°50'(8.8°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°50'(10.8°)
E123°30'(123.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 998hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°50'(12.8°)
E118°25'(118.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 996hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E113°20'(113.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

Image
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#27 Postby cebuboy » Tue Oct 23, 2012 7:36 pm

Weather starting to get dark here in Cebu City, Philippines. As I've observe, it will pass the islands and I hope it will not do any damage. Thanks for the update Guys.
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#28 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:36 pm

Image

possible typhoon for vietnam as our 24th system of the year gets upgraded to Tropical Storm Son-Tinh...


WTPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 9.5N 126.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 126.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.7N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 11.9N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.1N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.7N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.0N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.7N 105.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 9.8N 125.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND
250300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#29 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:38 pm

very interesting...

WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/ JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT
CONVECTIVE FEATURE AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIMETER INTO
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. RADAR IMAGERY FROM CEBU CITY,
PHILIPPINES IS BEGINNING TO BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY THE LLCC, BUT IS
CURRENTLY LIMITED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER
THE LLCC AND IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND CREATING A
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTH AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN
AMPLIFYING THE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD PORTIONS OF THE RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TS 24W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA (SCS) THROUGH TAU 72. WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO TRACKING OVER THE ISLANDS OF CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES. THIS LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY INHIBIT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL TS 24W MOVES OVER THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SCS
WHERE THE LLCC WILL PICK UP ADDITIONAL WARM MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE
SULU SEA AND SCS. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER THE SCS, THE LLCC
WILL BEGIN TO REORGANIZE, ALLOWING A STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH
TAU 72. ONE LIMITING FACTOR TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE
NORTHEASTERN COLD DRY AIR CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE SCS. THIS AIR
MASS WILL HINDER THE AVAILABILITY OF A TROPICAL AIR MASS ALONG THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 24W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VIETNAM UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR.
INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, BUT IS
EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COAST OF VIETNAM
AROUND TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK, WITH THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION SLIGHTLY BELOW
GUIDANCE BASED ON THE EFFECTS OF CROSSING THE PHILIPPINES EARLY IN
THE WARNING AND THE EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST SURGE IN THE MID TO
LATE TAUS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK BASED ON
THE TIGHT GROUPING OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE.//
NNNN
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#30 Postby ejeraldmc » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:04 am

It's brewing nicely... :/
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#31 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:24 am

24hr precip out look.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ETRAP/2012/NWPacific/SON-TINH/2012SON-TINH.p50.10240600.24.GIF

Here is the latest official track from JMA below as well.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1223.html

And if you want to check out Pats video update here it is.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzxdDFqBaYk&feature=g-high-u[/youtube]

Flash flooding has also been reported in Miranda.
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#32 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:37 pm

JTWC Upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm Son-Tinh

Image


WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 11.7N 123.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N 123.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 12.8N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.9N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.9N 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.8N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 19.9N 104.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 22.0N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 122.4E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#33 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:00 am

Image

Son-Tinh on his way to become our 15th typhoon of the season...incredible...

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 121.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 121.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.5N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 14.6N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.4N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.2N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 19.9N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.7N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 120.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#34 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:00 am

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 06//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 242121Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS OVER
THE SYSTEM AND IS PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE STRONG
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
TO THE EAST HAVE BEEN AMPLIFYING THE POLEWARD PORTION OF THE RADIAL
OUTFLOW. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.
B. TS 24W IS FORECASTED TO STEER GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY
THE STR THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE CYCLE, TRACKING OUT THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
OF THE PHILIPPINES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TS 24W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND REACH A PEAK OF
80 KNOTS JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AT TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 24W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST OF VIETNAM, JUST SOUTH OF HANOI. AFTER LANDFALL, TS 24W WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT SLOWS IN TRANSLATIONAL SPEED AND ENCOUNTERS THE
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. DUE TO THE WELL UNDERSTOOD STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUED TIGHT MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#35 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:05 pm

Image

now at 55 knots (1 min) and expected to further intensify as it makes a beeline for vietnam...

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 116.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 116.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.6N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.6N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.7N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.8N 106.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.7N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 22.7N 104.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 115.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#36 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:06 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
INDICATES CONTINUED IMPROVING DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH STRONG FORMATIVE
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. A PARTIAL 252240 SSMIS 91 GHZ
AND A 252249Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL OVERALL
IMPROVING STORM STRUCTURE CONSISTENT WITH A STRENGTHENING STORM. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGES WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON
THE IMPROVING STORM STRUCTURE AND CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW WITH A POLEWARD BIAS WHICH BEING ENHANCED BY THE WESTERLIES
TO THE NORTH AND A TUTT CELL LOCATED TO THE EAST. TS 24W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. TS 24W IS NOW FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER RATE DUE TO
OVERALL IMPROVING STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST.
B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. TS 24W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 85 KNOTS
BY TAU 36 AND MAINTAIN THAT STRENGTH THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT ENTERS THE
GULF OF TONKIN DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF WEAK
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
TS 24W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM SHORTLY AFTER TAU
48 AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS IT
SLOWS AND ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIETNAM.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND IS CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE WELL UNDERSTOOD ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Tropical Storm

#37 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:31 am

Image

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 990.2mb/ 57.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.4 3.4 3.4

KNES and PGTW at 3.5...perfect agreement with JTWC...
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Meow

#38 Postby Meow » Fri Oct 26, 2012 2:06 am

I did not expect that Son-Tinh could become a STS so fast, and it is estimated to become a TY.

Image

STS 1223 (SON-TINH)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 26 October 2012

<Analyses at 26/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N14°40'(14.7°)
E114°20'(114.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°40'(15.7°)
E112°00'(112.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area ALL200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E109°35'(109.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E105°35'(105.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E101°40'(101.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#39 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:13 pm

Image

on the verge of becoming our next typhoon! surely, son-tinh exceeded my expectations and probrably many people!

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 113.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 113.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.4N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 17.5N 108.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 18.4N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.5N 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.9N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 21.6N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 113.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND
271500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: SON-TINH - Severe Tropical Storm

#40 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:14 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 24W (SON-TINH) WARNING
NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (SON-TINH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM
EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
IMPROVED, TIGHTLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POSSIBLE
DEVELOPING, RAGGED EYE. A 261000Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. EARLIER VISIBLE
IMAGERY HAD SHOWN AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS (SC) OVER THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC AND NUMEROUS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE
SC FIELD INDICATED RELATIVELY COOLER, DRIER AIR WITH DEW POINTS
RANGING FROM 20 TO 21C AND SLP VALUES NEAR 1011MB. ADDITIONALLY, AN
UPPER-AIR SOUNDING FROM XISHA-DAO, APPROXIMATELY 170NM NORTHWEST OF
THE CURRENT CENTER, SHOWED SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS, WHICH MAY
BE HINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
HOWEVER, THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY REVEALS A DEEP, MOIST
ENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60
KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS
FROM ALL AGENCIES BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND
INCIPIENT EYE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE 26/00Z 500MB ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENDING ALONG 22N EASTWARD TO TAIWAN WITH
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TS 24W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP
STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE SOLID STEERING RIDGE AND GOOD AGREEMENT
IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 36 WITH A 125NM SPREAD. AFTER
TAU 36, MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND IS SPLIT
INTO TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS. NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE MAINTAINED A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO LAOS UNDER A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK INTO
NORTHERN VIETNAM OR THE GULF OF TONKIN WITH RAPID WEAKENING. TS 24W
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS BY TAU 24.
ALTHOUGH TS 24W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW SHOULD OFFSET ANY MITIGATING FACTORS.
BY TAU 36, TS 24W SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE
COAST OF VIETNAM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL AND IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM DUE
TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 24W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 96
AND SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER NORTHERN
VIETNAM, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION AND TURN
THE SYSTEM EASTWARD. IN GENERAL, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES RAPID
WEAKENING WITH THE REMNANTS TRACKING OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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