ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:32 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al992012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201230
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992012
AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 155N, 725W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113958&hilit=&start=0
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#2 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:55 am

Okie dokie then. So what are the latest model runs showing?

Update: it's ok I see there's a model thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:02 am

It's looking like a TD may form on Tue/Wed south or southeast of Jamaica then track NNE across eastern Cuba to the DR and out to sea. Could reach weak/sheared TS strength. Main threat would be heavy rain, mostly east of Jamaica through Haiti and the DR.
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#4 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:10 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:11 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:29 am

Something that this system will have in it's favor to start the developing proccess and maybe be a strong system is a very warm TCHP.

Image
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#7 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:42 am

No storm has "formed" in the Caribbean yet. Let's see if this one breaks the drought. Will be a messy week down there for sure.
Last edited by galaxy401 on Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:17 am

They made an update to the 12z Best Track to change the position more south.

AL, 99, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 146N, 728W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:09 am

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 20 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 21/2100Z A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 02EEA INVEST
C. 21/1630Z C. 22/0730Z
D. 16.0N 77.0W D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 21/2030Z TO 21/2330Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12 HOUR FIXES
AT 23/0000Z NEAR 16.0N 79.0W IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:13 am

SFLcane wrote:WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 20 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-154

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 21/2100Z A. 22/1200Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST B. AFXXX 02EEA INVEST
C. 21/1630Z C. 22/0730Z
D. 16.0N 77.0W D. 16.0N 78.0W
E. 21/2030Z TO 21/2330Z E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....CONTINUE 12 HOUR FIXES
AT 23/0000Z NEAR 16.0N 79.0W IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.


If you see the positions from Sunday thru Tuesday,they are stationary at 16.0N and only move two longitudes to the west. That means they think the system will not move much for a few days.
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#11 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 10:27 am

Looks to be consolidating farther west than it should be right now.

It may just be the wave axis though.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby Frank2 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:16 am

Still SE of Jamaica, though - looks better for Florida, that's for sure - cool and foggy here at sunrise this morning, very Fall/Winter like...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:19 am

Saturdays discussion of 99L by Dr Jeff Masters:

A tropical wave embedded in a large trough of low pressure (Invest 99L) covers a large portion of the Central Caribbean between Hispaniola and the northern coast of South America. This storm has the potential to be a dangerous rainfall threat for Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba. The disturbance is headed west at less than 5 mph, is over very warm waters of 29°C, and is in a moist environment. 99L has a large area of heavy thunderstorms that are beginning to show some organization, as seen on visible satellite loops. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and is forecast to be in the low to moderate range, 5 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow for some steady development of 99L, and there has been a good deal of model support for 99L becoming a tropical depression by Wednesday. Steering currents favor a continued slow westward movement for 99L through Tuesday, which will bring a multi-day period of heavy rains to Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba beginning on Sunday. The Dominican Republic may also see some heavy rains, though not as great. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will approaching the Eastern U.S., and the GFS and ECMWF models predict that this trough will turn 99L to the north, bringing the storm into the southeast Bahama Islands on Thursday or Friday. In their 8 am EDT tropical weather outlook, NHC gave 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Monday morning. I put these odds higher, at 40%. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 99L on Sunday afternoon.
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Re:

#14 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:19 am

galaxy401 wrote:No storm has "formed" in the Caribbean yet. Let's see if this one breaks the drought. Will be a messy week down there for sure.


You're forgetting Rafael, which formed a week ago in the Caribbean:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:23 am

Frank2 wrote:Still SE of Jamaica, though - looks better for Florida, that's for sure - cool and foggy here at sunrise this morning, very Fall/Winter like...

Frank


Even though what ever developes down there will likely get sheared apart and stay to ur east but i think its a Little premature to say something like this. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to the development, strength and track on this possbile developing system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby fci » Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:03 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Still SE of Jamaica, though - looks better for Florida, that's for sure - cool and foggy here at sunrise this morning, very Fall/Winter like...

Frank


Even though what ever developes down there will likely get sheared apart and stay to ur east but i think its a Little premature to say something like this. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to the development, strength and track on this possbile developing system.


With all due respect I don't think Frank said anything prematurely.
He said that it looks better for Florida.
How is that a little premature?
I agree with Frank, no one is predicting this to be a Florida issue
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Re: Re:

#17 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:No storm has "formed" in the Caribbean yet. Let's see if this one breaks the drought. Will be a messy week down there for sure.


You're forgetting Rafael, which formed a week ago in the Caribbean:

Oh forgot about that. Thought he formed outside the Carib. :P

Well it might be the first storm to FORM in the central/west carib this season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:31 pm

fci wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Still SE of Jamaica, though - looks better for Florida, that's for sure - cool and foggy here at sunrise this morning, very Fall/Winter like...

Frank


Even though what ever developes down there will likely get sheared apart and stay to ur east but i think its a Little premature to say something like this. Plenty of uncertainty with regards to the development, strength and track on this possbile developing system.


With all due respect I don't think Frank said anything prematurely.
He said that it looks better for Florida.
How is that a little premature?
I agree with Frank, no one is predicting this to be a Florida issue


Oct can always have a late season suprise instore for florida so with developing storm down there its best to keep tabs on it. Having said that the upper level pattern next 2 weeks is for this to stay east of the florida.

Just having flash backs of yesterday. :wink: 10/19/05
Last edited by SFLcane on Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#19 Postby Zanthe » Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:31 pm

Let's stop saying if anythings in the woods or out of the woods. For all we know at this point, this system does nothing and goes poof, or makes landfall anywhere at any strength.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Oct 20, 2012 12:39 pm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

If it means anything the canadian model does not put florida out of the woods.
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