ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3921 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:17 am

TheEuropean wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:This is COMPLETELY unofficial but here is my guess for the best track. I made a few minor track changes post-landfall (farther south) and also extended it. I could track it as far as Thursday afternoon before a new low seemed to take over in Atlantic Canada, which is frontal with a deep low near Iceland. Note the disclaimer at the bottom as the peak intensity is based on a surface observation with an uncertain sustaining period.

25/0600 19.7 / 76.0 100 kt - 955mb* *see note
25/0700 20.0 / 75.9 105 kt - 954mb* Landfall at Santiago de Cuba and maximum winds, *see note
29/1800 38.3 / 73.0 75 kt - 940mb Extratropical
29/2330 39.2 / 74.6 70 kt - 943mb Landfall near Ocean City, NJ

30/0000 39.3 / 74.7 70 kt - 945mb

*The 100 kt intensity at 25/0600 and the 105 kt landfall intensity are based on the assumption the measured wind of 84 kt at El Ramon (Cuban north shore) are 10-min sustained, which translates into 95 kt using the gust factor of 1.11 and adjusting for post-landfall weakening. If they are 1-min sustained, the intensity at both 25/0600 and landfall are estimated to be 95 kt in agreement with aircraft data.


Hello, I agree with Cat-3 at landfall in eastern cuba, but I don't believe that Sandy was fully extratropical when it hit NJ. It still had a warm core within that large extratropical system. So for me it was a hybrid system or something subtropical, not tropical and not extratropical.

I would set the central pressure at 946 mb at landfall, data from plane showed slowly rising pressure when Sandy hit land.


The 943 pressure at NJ landfall is based on a 945.5 reading near Atlantic City and the fact it appeared the core crossed the coast about 15 miles farther down the coast. The 70 kt landfall intensity is maintained but likely only took place over water. After landfall, I adjusted the track farther south since it appears the center went near Baltimore based on radar. Some other intensities are adjusted (up and down) based on aircraft observations. For example, I dropped it as low as 55 kt late on the 26th, before rising back to 70 kt (based on SFMR of 67 kt) by 1200Z on the 27th. The lowest pressure of 940mb also occured after the winds started dropping (and I have analyzed it as extratropical at that point).

As for the Cuban intensity, I placed a disclaimer since it is based on uncertain data. Recon supported a 95 kt intensity, but surface observations MAY have supported higher. I'm not sure what Cuba's sustaining period is.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3922 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:34 am

CrazyC83 wrote:The 943 pressure at NJ landfall is based on a 945.5 reading near Atlantic City and the fact it appeared the core crossed the coast about 15 miles farther down the coast. The 70 kt landfall intensity is maintained but likely only took place over water. After landfall, I adjusted the track farther south since it appears the center went near Baltimore based on radar. Some other intensities are adjusted (up and down) based on aircraft observations. For example, I dropped it as low as 55 kt late on the 26th, before rising back to 70 kt (based on SFMR of 67 kt) by 1200Z on the 27th. The lowest pressure of 940mb also occured after the winds started dropping (and I have analyzed it as extratropical at that point).


Ok, so around 943 mb is in fact the landfall pressure for this system, thx. But I still think it wasn't fully extratropical. We have to wait for the final report, but this can take some months.
Last edited by tolakram on Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed quotes
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3923 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Nov 06, 2012 4:10 am

angelwing wrote:I am wondering if the insurance company in PA would consider this a tropical cyclone since there were no hurricane warnings out as my deductible is 10 times for hurricane damage:(


This is a bigger point than many realize. If Hurricane Warnings were issued, that would activate clauses that the insurance companies can use to weasel their way out of claims or collect bigger deductibles. This isn't a case of the NHC fudging the data to screw the insurance companies... Sandy was not tropical at landfall. Sandy wasn't really a "hurricane" by the time it left the Bahamas... but the NHC kept it one in the operational advisories to make sure that people took Sandy seriously. Then they declared it post-tropical in the very last advisory before landfall so that the operational record would show the insurance companies it wasn't a hurricane. The post-season report will almost certainly show that Sandy was actually post-tropical or sub-tropical or extra-tropical (or whatever, non-tropical) several days before landfall... but good luck getting those deductibles refunded to everybody from the insurance companies after the TCR comes out.

From a scientific purist's perspective, the operational handling of Sandy wasn't very pretty... but from a public service standpoint, I think the NHC and the Eastern Region WFOs did a fantastic job.
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