ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/fwc-n/RSS ... opical.rss


SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 76.0W TO 14.8N 78.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 211200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 75.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING INTENSIFICATION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 211200Z,
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 83 TO 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FAVORABLE UPPER AIR
ENVIRONMENT MAY ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO WARNING OR REISSUED AS REQUIRED
BY 221530Z.//

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012102118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 769W, 25, 1006, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[Sanibel]

Synoptic problems with structure.


That cool air last night might be our savior here in Florida.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Synoptic problems with structure.


That cool air last night might be our savior here in Florida.

It wasn't cool in SE florida. A real front hasn't passed yet. This might get close enough to have significant impacts.

[jinftl]

Dewpoints 64-68 deg this pm across southeast florida (quasi-drier, but not a front to write home about, expected to go back into the 70's as a ridge and strong easterly flow builds in this week. Forecast low temps in coastal southeast florida in the low 70's tonight, mid 70's tomorrow night, and later this week 78-80 deg with strong flow off ocean in the 80's.

Synoptic problems with structure.


That cool air last night might be our savior here in Florida.

It wasn't cool in SE florida. A real front hasn't passed yet. This might get close enough to have significant impacts.

[cycloneye]

18z Surface Analysis.

[gatorcane]

Still looks pretty disorganized but the model support is there so there is a high chance it develops. Just how close to South Florida will it get is the question.

[chaser1]

Still looks pretty disorganized but the model support is there so there is a high chance it develops. Just how close to South Florida will it get is the question.

I don't know about that, I'm seeing a pretty impressive low to mid level circulation on the Satellite RGB view. If I were to guess, would perhaps put a COC close to about 14.5N & 78W. Mid levels clouds close to that point seem to be thickening and am assuming that the core is continuing to warm. The deep bursting convection farther to the east is waning, and 99L continues to slide westward under an even more sprawling upper high. I am expecting that we'll see some convective bursting much closer to the COC sometime tonight. It appears to me that this system will be large and if this is the case, then we might hope those Gulfstream's get put into play for some extended upper air sampling, because as we know larger hurricane's have a greater synoptic impact on the environment around it. I am wondering also if the temporary WSW motion forecasted might be part of a small anticyclonic loop it might make as the system deepens and possibly reaches close to 80W. A scary (though unanticipated) scenario might look to unfold if somehow 99L were to develop a degree or two further west, and then commence a slow northward motion from there.

[cycloneye]

Here is what Bryan Norcross discuss about 99L in his blog at WU.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcr ... ntrynum=13

[cycloneye]

Remains at 70% at 8 PM TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS FROM THIS
DISTURBANCE ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND
EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF HIGH TERRAIN.

[wxman57]

I still think it'll be Tue PM/Wed before it develops/is classified. Interesting model runs today - showing the TC merging with a frontal system along the Mid Atlantic Coast and turning into a big ET storm for the region next Sun/Mon. Something to watch out for. Florida still looks ok.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012102200, , BEST, 0, 146N, 777W, 25, 1005, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[gatorcane]

As for Florida, I would say it is looking pretty good right now for us, but I am cautiously optimistic at this point. I just need to see the ECMWF model shift east and will feel better. It's pretty close to South Florida in the 12Z run. I think back to Isaac, where the ECMWF started the west trend with the models long before the GFS or any other model picked up on it as it had a much better handle on the upper air pattern over the United States. In fact, at one point, I know there were thoughts that Isaac would pass Florida to the east, according to the GFS. Of course the scenario now is completely different, just need that ECMWF to have a nice healthy shift east and I will feel better.

[MiamiensisWx]

I still think it'll be Tue PM/Wed before it develops/is classified. Interesting model runs today - showing the TC merging with a frontal system along the Mid Atlantic Coast and turning into a big ET storm for the region next Sun/Mon. Something to watch out for. Florida still looks ok.

So when you say FL still looks okay, are you referring deterministically to the latest model trends alone or do you have some other reasoning behind your idea? I am not questioning your judgment and expertise, but am interested in hearing whether you are relying mainly on the model consensus or a blend of models, climatology, other data, past forecasting experience, etc. I do know that a hurricane or major ET system hitting the Northeast as late / early as late October (after 25 October) would be very unusual according to climatology. Now, on the other hand, FL has had several, though not a huge number, of hits on or after 24 October: Wilma 2005, 1921, 1935, and Kate 1985, to name a few. (The last two were on 04 November and 21 November.) So I would be interested in seeing how, in your mind, the different factors become reconciled to the model projections and your thoughts.

Thanks very much!

[cycloneye]

Latest microwave. Nice structure.

[CrazyC83]

I still think it'll be Tue PM/Wed before it develops/is classified. Interesting model runs today - showing the TC merging with a frontal system along the Mid Atlantic Coast and turning into a big ET storm for the region next Sun/Mon. Something to watch out for. Florida still looks ok.

So when you say FL still looks okay, are you referring deterministically to the latest model trends alone or do you have some other reasoning behind your idea? I am not questioning your judgment and expertise, but am interested in hearing whether you are relying mainly on the model consensus or a blend of models, climatology, other data, past forecasting experience, etc. I do know that a hurricane or major ET system hitting the Northeast as late / early as late October (after 25 October) would be very unusual according to climatology. Now, on the other hand, FL has had several, though not a huge number, of hits on or after 24 October: Wilma 2005, 1921, 1935, and Kate 1985, to name a few. (The last two were on 04 November and 21 November.) So I would be interested in seeing how, in your mind, the different factors become reconciled to the model projections and your thoughts.

Thanks very much!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also this storm is likely to be ENORMOUS as well. Most likely gale force winds will cover an area up to 1,000 miles wide if the models are right! So even if it is over the Bahamas, Florida would still feel its effects.

[gatorcane]

Looping the SAT imagery, I can still see a slow west movement:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

How far west it gets and any center relocations farther west could make some differences down the road on who this impacts.

A front stretches across the NW Caribbean, will be interesting to see if any convection starts to blow up overnight tonight a bit farther west, along the frontal boundary.

We should start to see a blowup of convection near the LLC overnight though.

[StormingB81]

Here we go....a station in CT has this as a headline "Models predict perfect storm II"

[Hurricaneman]

Here we go....a station in CT has this as a headline "Models predict perfect storm II"

this smiley sums this up properly saying that is completely irresponsible of them

[tomboudreau]

Here we go....a station in CT has this as a headline "Models predict perfect storm II"

Which one of the great stations is saying this? I'll list my guess in order, and you tell me if I'm correct.

1 - Channel 8 - wtnh
2 - Channel 3 - wfsb
3 - Channel 30 - wvit