ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
HPC
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 6
Joined: Sun Jun 27, 2010 5:51 pm
Location: Jupiter, FL

#1181 Postby HPC » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:21 pm

Observations: 2.4 miles inland, Jupiter, FL. (local time, wind and today's rainfall data)
13:15__ Current(mph):07.3__ CurrentGust(mph):11.5__ 1HourAvg(mph):08.5__ MaxGustToday(mph):25.6__ RainToday(in):0.02
14:15__ Current(mph):08.7__ CurrentGust(mph):14.0__ 1HourAvg(mph):08.6__ MaxGustToday(mph):25.6__ RainToday(in):0.02
15:15__ Current(mph):07.1__ CurrentGust(mph):10.4__ 1HourAvg(mph):08.2__ MaxGustToday(mph):25.6__ RainToday(in):0.03
16:15__ Current(mph):11.2__ CurrentGust(mph):17.4__ 1HourAvg(mph):10.7__ MaxGustToday(mph):25.6__ RainToday(in):0.08

17:15__ Current(mph):17.0__ CurrentGust(mph):24.0__ 1HourAvg(mph):13.2__ MaxGustToday(mph):28.0__ RainToday(in):0.10
18:15__ Current(mph):13.0__ CurrentGust(mph):20.6__ 1HourAvg(mph):12.0__ MaxGustToday(mph):28.0__ RainToday(in):0.13
0 likes   

User avatar
dixiebreeze
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5140
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
Location: crystal river, fla.

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1182 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:21 pm

25/1745 UTC 23.5N 75.5W T5.0/5.0 SANDY -- Atlantic
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6771
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1183 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:24 pm

jhpigott wrote:Wind has picked up here in northern palm beach county as well (I'm a little less than a mile from the coast as the crow flies). Hope that cyclonic loop that some of the models are forecasting in the NW Bahamas doesn't push Sandy too close to the SE FL coast.


last 90 minutes have been stronger than anything isaac offered up..neighbors basketball hoop went down
0 likes   

HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 595
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1184 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:24 pm

Interesting. The NWS upped the wind gusts expected on Friday for my location:

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Windy, with a north wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
0 likes   

WeatherGuesser
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2672
Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1185 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:26 pm

Portastorm wrote:I hope and pray that folks along the East Coast (and inland areas) take this serious and spend their weekend preparing for this event.



For what it's worth, it's on pretty much every forum I frequent, most of which have nothing at all to do with weather. People are talking about it.
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

#1186 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:26 pm

center fix. is west of the 5pm advisory. seems the turn has started
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
WeatherLovingDoc
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 453
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2008 10:08 pm
Location: Washington D.C.

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1187 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:27 pm

Weatherguy173 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:This has the potential to a historic storm for the northeast. Something we'll talk about decades from now (I hope I'll be around decades from now). A very large subtropical storm with hurricane-force wind striking south of Long Island/NHC nearly head-on into the coast would be an extremely rare event. This could set the record for the number of people without power from a single storm. Flooding will be like nothing many have seen in their lifetimes. Very, very bad...


Don't you remember the 1938 new england hurricane striking long island? That's historic. It killed over 680 people - directly.


I was thinking of the 1938 storm all day today. The picture of the potential storm surge that Rock showed earlier definitely brought pictures of that storm to mind.
0 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1064
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1188 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:30 pm

I have a question for the pro-mets, once Sandy makes landfall, how quickly is it expected to lose strength and move over land on it's track?
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 33393
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#1189 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:30 pm

Looks like it weakened some for now. NOAA flight supports no higher than about 70 kt.
0 likes   

jhpigott
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 538
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 8:09 pm
Location: North Palm Beach, Florida

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1190 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:38 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Interesting. The NWS upped the wind gusts expected on Friday for my location:

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Windy, with a north wind 31 to 36 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


They upped things for us here a few miles north of you. Now saying Tropical Storm conditions expected, with sustained winds 40, gusting to 75.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 7918457029
0 likes   

User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1542
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1191 Postby bahamaswx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:43 pm

Heard from my folks in Exuma. Power is already back on. No real damage.
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1192 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:44 pm

Ken711 wrote:I have a question for the pro-mets, once Sandy makes landfall, how quickly is it expected to lose strength and move over land on it's track?


Because it is expected to be a hybrid storm (with characteristics both tropical and mid-latitude or nor'easter type) it will not weaken as quickly as a purely tropical storm would. So the winds will not come down as quickly. This also means the high seas and beach erosion will last longer.
0 likes   

User avatar
artist
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9793
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2005 3:26 pm
Location: West Palm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1193 Postby artist » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:46 pm

bahamaswx wrote:Heard from my folks in Exuma. Power is already back on. No real damage.

awesome news!
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15425
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#1194 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:46 pm

ozonepete, are Topical storms stronger than those Hybrid storms?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#1195 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:47 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like it weakened some for now. NOAA flight supports no higher than about 70 kt.


Right on schedule. The expanding wind field is causing the winds to drop near the center as long as pressure doesn't come up much.
0 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1064
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1196 Postby Ken711 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:48 pm

ozonepete wrote:
Ken711 wrote:I have a question for the pro-mets, once Sandy makes landfall, how quickly is it expected to lose strength and move over land on it's track?


Because it is expected to be a hybrid storm (with characteristics both tropical and mid-latitude or nor'easter type) it will not weaken as quickly as a purely tropical storm would. So the winds will not come down as quickly. This also means the high seas and beach erosion will last longer.


Thank you for your reply.
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1197 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:48 pm

[quote="bahamaswx"]Heard from my folks in Exuma. Power is already back on. No real damage.[/quote]

That's great!!
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138884
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1198 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:56 pm

Latest Microwave.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re:

#1199 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:ozonepete, are Topical storms stronger than those Hybrid storms?


They're all different. Some hybrid storms have been exctremely powerful, such as Hurricane Hazel in 1954. The wikipedia entry for Hazel is pretty good: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Hazel
With 100 mph + winds all over the coastal mid-Atlantic states it was clearly much more powerful than many tropical storms are.

So extratropical storms like this are rare but can happen and be devastating. They are formed when a cold 500mb trough (mid-level of the atmosphere) pushes down from Canda and the leading edge of it intercepts a hurricane. They basically change the hurricane structure from warm-core to cold-core and this allows the hurricane to remain strong when it should have weakened.

Here's an old surface chart showing Hazel as the cold front and upper level 500mb trough were about to merge with it, and the surface forecast for Sandy and the approaching front for Monday morning. Very similar setup.

Image

Image
0 likes   

ozonepete
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4743
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY

Re: ATL: SANDY - Hurricane - Discussion

#1200 Postby ozonepete » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:03 pm

:uarrow: btw, note how extremely close the isobars (lines of equal pressure) are around the hurricane. Sandy's isobars are still really packed on the Monday forecast map, indicating very high wind.
0 likes   


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 23 guests