ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

[WilmingtonSandbar]

There is a sidewalk on the right side of the after picture. I would like verification those are actually looking in the same direction.

I believe there is also a sidewalk in the second picture, but just obscured by shadow from the fence.

[artist]

on ABC7 today I did hear there was one area where they were sending in divers for searches. I wish I could remember where.

[WeatherGuesser]

I remember seeing an interview sometime over the weekend with a couple in the 50s or 60s somewhere in NJ I think. Said they left for Irene but were staying this time no matter what.

I wish the media would do follow up interviews with these people and other like them to see how they fared and if they regret their decision.

[Ptarmigan]

Since 2005 a major hurricane doesn't make landfall in US, but Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac and Sandy have proved that intensity doesn't matter and all tropical cyclones are dangerous.

So true. In some ways, I consider Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac and Sandy major because they were large sized and created massive storm surge. I rather be hit by a small Category 5 hurricane than large Category 1 hurricane.

[Ptarmigan]

Isaac, the only landfalling hurricane this season, was nothing compared to Sandy in terms of the scale of impact...no disrespect for those in Louisiana.

I'm sorry but I was responding specifically to the term uneventful. I'm not sure what the standard is but for me uneventful is no landfalling storms. We had Isaac hit as a hurricane and before that Beryl and Debby. I'm not sure what the definition for uneventful should be.

Well, I didn't mean to say Isaac was not eventful (it did cause 2B in damage), but I guess I was referring to storms on the level of Ike, Andrew, etc. that are significant enough to be remembered by the average Joe. Unfortunately, these days, a billion dollar disaster has become so common that the general public almost tends to forget about storms like Isaac. Even Dennis in 2005 is an afterthought for most people outside the Gulf Coast since they focus on the "big three" (Katrina, Rita, Wilma).

Or Hurricane Bret in 1999. A major hurricane that hit a sparsely populated region of South Texas.

[WeatherGuesser]

Interesting set of pictures:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picture ... me=2383255

[Nicko999]

Whoa, up to 70F in Montreal today along with sunshine after some showers earlier in the day. We actually broke the record high for today!

Thanks Sandy!

In all seriousness, I enjoyed today but wish all the best to New Yorkers and people affected and good luck in the recovery.

[CrazyC83]

Since 2005 a major hurricane doesn't make landfall in US, but Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac and Sandy have proved that intensity doesn't matter and all tropical cyclones are dangerous.

So true. In some ways, I consider Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac and Sandy major because they were large sized and created massive storm surge. I rather be hit by a small Category 5 hurricane than large Category 1 hurricane.

Tell that to those who went through Charley in 2004 in Punta Gorda, Florida.

[galaxy401]

Death toll up to 48 now...New Jersey looks literally destroyed...

[bahamaswx]

Since 2005 a major hurricane doesn't make landfall in US, but Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac and Sandy have proved that intensity doesn't matter and all tropical cyclones are dangerous.

So true. In some ways, I consider Gustav, Ike, Irene, Isaac and Sandy major because they were large sized and created massive storm surge. I rather be hit by a small Category 5 hurricane than large Category 1 hurricane.

You wouldn't say that if you'd seen 170mph winds literally level buildings.

[chrisjslucia]

So the death toll for Sandy is now over 100 - 65 in the Caribbean and 48 in the USA & Canada.

It will be interesting to see the stats on those tragic fatalities. For the Caribbean many will have been caused by water, surges, flooding. For the USA many of the reports on fatalities I have read refer to cause of death as falling trees, power lines etc - I assume many of those caused by winds rather than water. Water has caused huge infrastructure damage though for the USA. In the traditional hurricane states within the USA building codes are now highly developed and strictly enforced, reducing wind related injuries and deaths. It is clear that these codes do not apply in the North East as the threat is not viewed as a reoccurring, every season problem. Same logic as why my roof is not designed to take a load of snow. But will two storms in these areas, in a short space of time, become a trend or remain a rare event? Difficult planning and investment decisions for sure.

I strongly believe for my area rain is more of a killer than wind in most instances but having said that the Eastern Caribbean is generally facing hurricanes and tropical storms in the earlier part of their lives. Still, I think the issue of how storms are defined and described in regards to providing alerts, warnings and advice is something that after Sandy and as the season comes (hopefully) to an end that Storm 2K and others can continue to look at.

People have said in earlier posts they would rather face a small Cat 5 than a large Cat 1. But the issue is far too complex for that kind of choice. Speed of movement meant Tomas, which was large enough, moved slowly over St Lucia and dumped 20 inches of rain in 22 hours. Had Sandy moved at a similar pace on landfall it is likely flooding would have been even worse. 100 mph winds frighten me, I can't envisage being hit directly by a Cat 5. but whatever was heading my way, it would certainly be easier to cope with and plan for if we were able to convert data into risk scores, which this time seemed to be widely used. Scores I saw emphasised water was more of a danger -particularly the surge - than winds (that is don't assume a Cat 1 isn't a killer).

BUT was the wind threat understated for the terrain, natural environment and infrastructure to be found in New Jersey, New York etc? Maybe for Miami the risk would have been low. For the actual areas hit by Sandy, the factors in scoring the risk would need to take local conditions into account. Which gets me back to the fatalities and what was the main cause.

Whatever it was, wherever they happened my thoughts and condolences go out to their friends, families and communities.

Finally, hats off to the people of the USA for their resilience in facing Sandy and good luck to all of the countries hit by Sandy in dealing with the aftermath. Apologies for being so long winded...(Risk factor 5!!)

[Terry]

I've seen so many photos of the NJ, NY, & CT shore areas today that are just heartbreaking. I don't think it matches what we saw right along the coast in Katrina as far as long lines of totally destroyed homes, but these structures may be beyond repair just the same. It really is devastating. And that is without mentioning the shutdown of the NYC subway system. What an unreal event.

It does concern me that I'm not seeing enough coverage of other areas, such as the Outer Banks. They lost homes to the sea, too. But I do remain thankful for the experts and amateur experts on S2K & this community of people who care!

[CrazyC83]

So the death toll for Sandy is now over 100 - 65 in the Caribbean and 48 in the USA & Canada.

It will be interesting to see the stats on those tragic fatalities. For the Caribbean many will have been caused by water, surges, flooding. For the USA many of the reports on fatalities I have read refer to cause of death as falling trees, power lines etc - I assume many of those caused by winds rather than water. Water has caused huge infrastructure damage though for the USA. In the traditional hurricane states within the USA building codes are now highly developed and strictly enforced, reducing wind related injuries and deaths. It is clear that these codes do not apply in the North East as the threat is not viewed as a reoccurring, every season problem. Same logic as why my roof is not designed to take a load of snow. But will two storms in these areas, in a short space of time, become a trend or remain a rare event? Difficult planning and investment decisions for sure.

I strongly believe for my area rain is more of a killer than wind in most instances but having said that the Eastern Caribbean is generally facing hurricanes and tropical storms in the earlier part of their lives. Still, I think the issue of how storms are defined and described in regards to providing alerts, warnings and advice is something that after Sandy and as the season comes (hopefully) to an end that Storm 2K and others can continue to look at.

People have said in earlier posts they would rather face a small Cat 5 than a large Cat 1. But the issue is far too complex for that kind of choice. Speed of movement meant Tomas, which was large enough, moved slowly over St Lucia and dumped 20 inches of rain in 22 hours. Had Sandy moved at a similar pace on landfall it is likely flooding would have been even worse. 100 mph winds frighten me, I can't envisage being hit directly by a Cat 5. but whatever was heading my way, it would certainly be easier to cope with and plan for if we were able to convert data into risk scores, which this time seemed to be widely used. Scores I saw emphasised water was more of a danger -particularly the surge - than winds (that is don't assume a Cat 1 isn't a killer).

BUT was the wind threat understated for the terrain, natural environment and infrastructure to be found in New Jersey, New York etc? Maybe for Miami the risk would have been low. For the actual areas hit by Sandy, the factors in scoring the risk would need to take local conditions into account. Which gets me back to the fatalities and what was the main cause.

Whatever it was, wherever they happened my thoughts and condolences go out to their friends, families and communities.

Finally, hats off to the people of the USA for their resilience in facing Sandy and good luck to all of the countries hit by Sandy in dealing with the aftermath. Apologies for being so long winded...(Risk factor 5!!)

In the case of the New York/New Jersey area, geography does not help. The angle of approach sent high water into a right angle on the coastline where Long Island and New Jersey nearly meet. That allowed water to funnel up New York Harbor into the area at the time the eyewall moved through. It was probably a worst case scenario for Manhattan and the New York Harbor area, but not Long Island or New England (that would be a straight-on hit, if Sandy was transposed onto Irene's track).

Where do the extreme scenarios of a hurricane bringing a 30 foot surge to NYC (i.e. flooding Zone C) come from? I don't see such a storm possible, since any Cat 3 at that latitude would likely be small and fast-moving (that would be the worst case with wind!)

[Ptarmigan]

Tell that to those who went through Charley in 2004 in Punta Gorda, Florida.

You wouldn't say that if you'd seen 170mph winds literally level buildings.

Fair enough. It is just I do not like the term major hurricane. I just see storm surge more dangerous than wind as people evacuate for them, save people in trailer parks. I would not laugh at strong 160 mph winds.

Now, if it was a large hurricane with strong winds (think Carla, Gilbert, or Katrina), that would be the worst period. It would bring strong wind and massive storm surge that is horrific. Now, if a hurricane had a large RMW and large area of +111 mph winds that would be really bad and create massive storm surge.

Also, let's not forget heavy rains and that causes flooding and kills many people.

[SouthernBreeze]

So the death toll for Sandy is now over 100 - 65 in the Caribbean and 48 in the USA & Canada.

It will be interesting to see the stats on those tragic fatalities. For the Caribbean many will have been caused by water, surges, flooding. For the USA many of the reports on fatalities I have read refer to cause of death as falling trees, power lines etc - I assume many of those caused by winds rather than water. Water has caused huge infrastructure damage though for the USA. In the traditional hurricane states within the USA building codes are now highly developed and strictly enforced, reducing wind related injuries and deaths. It is clear that these codes do not apply in the North East as the threat is not viewed as a reoccurring, every season problem. Same logic as why my roof is not designed to take a load of snow. But will two storms in these areas, in a short space of time, become a trend or remain a rare event? Difficult planning and investment decisions for sure.

I live in a traditional hurricane state, and yes, the houses are built to withstand the high winds of hurricanes. BUT the majority of these deaths seem to have been due to falling trees, of which most houses cannot withstand 100+ yr old oak trees falling on them. Cars cannot withstand trees falling on them - so short of removing all trees, there's no way to avoid that aspect of the storm damage. Homes can be built with steel beams to help withstand falling trees, but that gets very costly.

[Kingarabian]

So sad for everyone right now on the East Coast. Just watched this video on CNN.com... It's really unfortunate.

[StormingB81]

How crazy is this!

http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/new_haven_ ... JCCZ4bJKgl

Sandy stirs up skeleton in New Haven

Officials said a woman among those passing by to look at the fallen tree spotted the visible skeletal remains of a probable victim of yellow fever or smallpox, who may have been buried between 1799 and 1821.

[HurrMark]

Where do the extreme scenarios of a hurricane bringing a 30 foot surge to NYC (i.e. flooding Zone C) come from? I don't see such a storm possible, since any Cat 3 at that latitude would likely be small and fast-moving (that would be the worst case with wind!)

Given the pictures I saw, I would have said that Zone B should have been evacuated.

[Terry]

Fascinating stuff. You just never know what a storm might reveal.

How crazy is this!

http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/news/new_haven_ ... JCCZ4bJKgl

Sandy stirs up skeleton in New Haven

Officials said a woman among those passing by to look at the fallen tree spotted the visible skeletal remains of a probable victim of yellow fever or smallpox, who may have been buried between 1799 and 1821.

[CrazyC83]

Where do the extreme scenarios of a hurricane bringing a 30 foot surge to NYC (i.e. flooding Zone C) come from? I don't see such a storm possible, since any Cat 3 at that latitude would likely be small and fast-moving (that would be the worst case with wind!)

Given the pictures I saw, I would have said that Zone B should have been evacuated.

I would agree with you, at least for the rivers and sounds (maybe not oceanside Zone B).