ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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Re: Re:

#3841 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:10 am

HurrMark wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:How will this rank in history? My guess is the damage total will be around that of Hurricane Ike. The overall wind damage should be considerably less, but the surge damage a lot more - equalizing it out. It should rank as the 2nd or 3rd costliest storm I would think (3rd or 4th after inflation).


I was thinking 'Ike' levels all along...it might be higher depending on how much damage is in the subways...


One thing that also might raise the cost: the fact that many of the beachfront homes are extremely expensive and include some of the richest parts of the area. (Not all of them, but a lot of them).
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Re:

#3842 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:11 am

chrisjslucia wrote:Took the time to read through the first pages of this topic. Turn to pages 5 and 6 - around October 22nd - and you have posts from Wxman57 talking about East Coast hits, Joe Bastardi tweets talking about hurricane hitting NJ with a pressure as low as 950 and a CT radio station headlining with the Perfect Storm forecast. As CrazyC83 said on this page, the difference in forecasting and lives saved because we have satellite data is almost unimaginable.
We do have the data now, often a week before an event hits. It seems to me the issue is agreeing how best to communicate that in a sensible way - maximum safety and minimum panic / hype.


Almost every reliable forecaster from the NHC right down to amateurs did a good job here. We all had a good idea as well. The problem is communication more than anything. Even in the 1970s and 1980s, with satellites but weaker models, lead time would have been shorter (although they would have had warning), but before the 1960s, this could have certainly hit the coast by surprise with little warning.
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Re: Re:

#3843 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:44 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
chrisjslucia wrote:Took the time to read through the first pages of this topic. Turn to pages 5 and 6 - around October 22nd - and you have posts from Wxman57 talking about East Coast hits, Joe Bastardi tweets talking about hurricane hitting NJ with a pressure as low as 950 and a CT radio station headlining with the Perfect Storm forecast. As CrazyC83 said on this page, the difference in forecasting and lives saved because we have satellite data is almost unimaginable.
We do have the data now, often a week before an event hits. It seems to me the issue is agreeing how best to communicate that in a sensible way - maximum safety and minimum panic / hype.


Almost every reliable forecaster from the NHC right down to amateurs did a good job here. We all had a good idea as well. The problem is communication more than anything. Even in the 1970s and 1980s, with satellites but weaker models, lead time would have been shorter (although they would have had warning), but before the 1960s, this could have certainly hit the coast by surprise with little warning.


Agreed...but as recently as 05, even though the forecast was excellent, the death toll of a storm could be in the thousands if it hits at the "right" place, the infrastructure isn't there to support evacuation, and communication is not up to snuff.
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Re:

#3844 Postby Weatherguy173 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:One last thing...good riddance Sandy! Won't be seeing you in 2018, that is for sure! :Can:


she is such a @$%&#
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#3845 Postby Terry » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:37 am

Excellent commentary/post-mortem. I get it that average citizens may not have understood what was heading toward, NJ, NY, CT. But I just don't understand why a met would discount a reliable model and what tropical and surge experts were saying. Sad.

Thanks for all of your posts during this event. They were very helpful. I hope your neighborhood turned out Ok!

ozonepete wrote:In a post-mortem, I had a "disagreement" with a friend who is a meteorologist about how bad Sandy was going to be up here in the northeast. I consistently said that the storm surge north of the center would be by far the worst part of Sandy and could be record breaking because of the angle of approach. It would allow Sandy to intensify over the Gulf Stream just before taking that curve to the northwest into this area and then the winds would turn east and then southeast as Sandy was making landfall. I told my friend that this would pile up the water into NY Harbor and I posted my opinion about that on here a lot of times. He just kept saying it wouldn’t happen because Sandy would weaken as it came onshore and thus the winds would die down and there wouldn’t be much surge. I tried to explain that the wall of water ahead of Sandy, the surge, wouldn’t weaken as it came ashore even if the winds started to. A surge such as that can’t dissipate until it reaches the shoreline. In Irene some of the surge got squeezed out to the east as it moved northward but with the angle Sandy was coming in at the surge had nowhere to go but onshore and so would get forced onto the shore everywhere north of it: the Jersey shore north of the eye and NYC and Long Island. The models also indicated that Sandy wouldn’t collapse at landfall even though it would weaken fairly quickly. So there would be hours of really high southeasterly winds into north Jersey and NYC just before and during high tide. I just couldn’t get him to believe me. I actually texted him at 6PM on Monday, very frustrated, and said “so when do you think the winds will go SE over NYC” and he texted back “midnight.” I got disgusted and dropped the topic. Winds went E and quickly SE around 6PM at very high velocity and just piled the water into NY Harbor as we all know now.

All I’m saying is that we have to start believing in the science that I thought we all respected so much. We as a country have spent a lot of money and time building an incredibly sophisticated computer model based weather forecasting system to try and foresee events just this dangerous. And the computer models were very close on the intensity, the storm surge and the wind speed and direction. When virtually all of the models told us this would be a disastrous storm, no one should be saying it's not going to happen because they have a gut feeling or "it just never happens" or a couple of the models don't agree. Fortunately most people on here took it very seriously and we had all of the great pro mets and storm2k veterans who sounded the alarm and kept warning people. I'm really proud of all the storm2k people who kept up the alarm and kept people informed.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#3846 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:28 pm

Terry wrote:Excellent commentary/post-mortem. I get it that average citizens may not have understood what was heading toward, NJ, NY, CT. But I just don't understand why a met would discount a reliable model and what tropical and surge experts were saying. Sad.

Thanks for all of your posts during this event. They were very helpful. I hope your neighborhood turned out Ok!

ozonepete wrote:In a post-mortem, I had a "disagreement" with a friend who is a meteorologist about how bad Sandy was going to be up here in the northeast. I consistently said that the storm surge north of the center would be by far the worst part of Sandy and could be record breaking because of the angle of approach. It would allow Sandy to intensify over the Gulf Stream just before taking that curve to the northwest into this area and then the winds would turn east and then southeast as Sandy was making landfall. I told my friend that this would pile up the water into NY Harbor and I posted my opinion about that on here a lot of times. He just kept saying it wouldn’t happen because Sandy would weaken as it came onshore and thus the winds would die down and there wouldn’t be much surge. I tried to explain that the wall of water ahead of Sandy, the surge, wouldn’t weaken as it came ashore even if the winds started to. A surge such as that can’t dissipate until it reaches the shoreline. In Irene some of the surge got squeezed out to the east as it moved northward but with the angle Sandy was coming in at the surge had nowhere to go but onshore and so would get forced onto the shore everywhere north of it: the Jersey shore north of the eye and NYC and Long Island. The models also indicated that Sandy wouldn’t collapse at landfall even though it would weaken fairly quickly. So there would be hours of really high southeasterly winds into north Jersey and NYC just before and during high tide. I just couldn’t get him to believe me. I actually texted him at 6PM on Monday, very frustrated, and said “so when do you think the winds will go SE over NYC” and he texted back “midnight.” I got disgusted and dropped the topic. Winds went E and quickly SE around 6PM at very high velocity and just piled the water into NY Harbor as we all know now.

All I’m saying is that we have to start believing in the science that I thought we all respected so much. We as a country have spent a lot of money and time building an incredibly sophisticated computer model based weather forecasting system to try and foresee events just this dangerous. And the computer models were very close on the intensity, the storm surge and the wind speed and direction. When virtually all of the models told us this would be a disastrous storm, no one should be saying it's not going to happen because they have a gut feeling or "it just never happens" or a couple of the models don't agree. Fortunately most people on here took it very seriously and we had all of the great pro mets and storm2k veterans who sounded the alarm and kept warning people. I'm really proud of all the storm2k people who kept up the alarm and kept people informed.


If Irene hit on Sandy's path, most likely I would think the surge would have been 10 to 12 feet - still enough to swamp the subways and low-lying areas. It was the angle of approach that was key, not the intensity or setup.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3847 Postby chrisjslucia » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:32 pm

This is a link to a Google interactive map, with both track and events during Sandy's long travels. Worth checking and for those of you who met Sandy you might have info to add.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog ... nts-mapped
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3848 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:46 pm

Many people thought it wouldn't happen (myself included, until Friday afternoon - Mark (KY) would understand why I say that if I explained it to him one day), the track being so unusual for the time of year, but it did - from the NHC tweet's I read over the weekend, the NHC's biggest concern was the storm surge, and they were correct...

Brian Norcross mentioned more than once that the consistent model agreement over so many days in a row was very unusual - as we know, they usually do sway one way or another, but not this time - right at the end there was one model that showed it going out to sea, but I can't recall which one, because it appeared on a TWC graphic just one time on Sunday evening or Monday morning (I forget)...

My first hurricane experience was Donna (1960) and that absolutely raked the entire US east coast (include New York City), but this was worse - perhaps because the population has increased so much in the past half-century, but also because Sandy was much more destructive in so many ways...

Frank
Last edited by Frank2 on Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3849 Postby mitchell » Wed Oct 31, 2012 2:47 pm

Indian River Inlet, Delaware. October 30, 2012.

Image
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#3850 Postby tomboudreau » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:27 pm

NCDOT has setup this album on Flickr showing some of the damage to the Outer Banks from Sandy.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/ncdot/sets/72157631872150416/
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3851 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 6:49 pm

I get e-mail updates from the 9/11 memorial...they sent one out today:

Dear Friend,

Like many, we at the Memorial are still recovering from the impact of Sandy. I was on site yesterday with our team and have been back again today to monitor conditions. On the positive side, the Memorial came through in beautiful shape. I saw firsthand that the Survivor Tree continues to live up to its name and stands tall among the oak trees at the Memorial.

Our team took a number of preventive steps, including draining the Memorial's pools and harvest tanks. The pools are now being cleaned, and once power is restored, we will be able to get them back up and running.

The Museum's collection is largely stored offsite and we are reviewing the condition of these items to assess any impacts and ensure their care.

While the 9/11 Memorial and Museum endured Sandy, there have been extensive impacts, which we continue to manage. River surges caused serious flooding at the foundation level of the World Trade Center, where the Museum is under construction. Our Visitor Center and other facilities were also impacted by flooding.

We will have a clearer picture of the extent of the damages as our dedicated response teams continue their assessments. We are working closely with the state, city and the Port Authority to reopen the Memorial as soon as possible, as well as make any necessary repairs. We will be sure to keep you apprised of updates on conditions.

During this time of recovery, we hope that you and your family are safe. Once again, we are reminded as we were after 9/11, that together we can surmount the most unimaginable challenges.

Warm regards,
Joe Daniels
President & CEO
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#3852 Postby WeatherGuesser » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:12 pm

Reading a lot of stories about people that died that didn't have to. First, they stayed after being told to evacuate. Then, they go to their basements to wait out the storm? When storm surge flooding is forecast?

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/nationa ... -1.1195149
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#3853 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:28 pm

Run from the water, hide from the wind...and evacuate when told to (or, even if not told to, evacuate if you don't feel safe!).
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3854 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 31, 2012 9:53 pm

I've had to remove a few posts.

Please remember to be respectful of everyone, regardless of what you think of their decisions. Panic makes people do strange things, and we all have different capabilities to understand danger.

As a reminder, if you see a post you think is offensive report it rather than reply, otherwise multiple posts have to be removed. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#3855 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:07 pm

Terry wrote:Excellent commentary/post-mortem. I get it that average citizens may not have understood what was heading toward, NJ, NY, CT. But I just don't understand why a met would discount a reliable model and what tropical and surge experts were saying. Sad.

Thanks for all of your posts during this event. They were very helpful. I hope your neighborhood turned out Ok!


Thank you! We did ok here in inland Brooklyn - just a lot of downed trees. And I can't work for the time being because my NYC office building in Long Island City Queens was damaged by surge from the East River, but we are very grateful it wasn't worse here. Just really feel bad that people were killed and so much long-lasting damage has been done.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#3856 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:13 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The media machine will be all over this storm if it makes a direct hit, that is for sure! This is potentially a nightmare for the NWS as a whole, as the hybrid charcteristics create operational issues and potential for mixed messages. Some may ask what is it - a blizzard? snowstorm? hurricane? Nor'easter?

From page 8 (Mon, Oct 22). Now we know what happened...and how much of a mess it is going to cause in the offseason.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#3857 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:44 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:The media machine will be all over this storm if it makes a direct hit, that is for sure! This is potentially a nightmare for the NWS as a whole, as the hybrid charcteristics create operational issues and potential for mixed messages. Some may ask what is it - a blizzard? snowstorm? hurricane? Nor'easter?

From page 8 (Mon, Oct 22). Now we know what happened...and how much of a mess it is going to cause in the offseason.


The NWS is probably assembling a Service Assessment team as we speak. It may be too late for next season, but by 2014 surely they will make protocol changes.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3858 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 31, 2012 11:20 pm

I think the NHC did the best they could given they could for this hurricane, and not puting hurricane watches and warnings out could be a sore point, but it technically was extratropical at landfall so IMO it was the right call in the end and people should have taken the warnings that were given seriously and not think that high wind warnings < hurricane warnings because in some cases they can be equal
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3859 Postby ozonepete » Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:40 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I think the NHC did the best they could given they could for this hurricane, and not puting hurricane watches and warnings out could be a sore point, but it technically was extratropical at landfall so IMO it was the right call in the end and people should have taken the warnings that were given seriously and not think that high wind warnings < hurricane warnings because in some cases they can be equal


Well whatever else comes out of this I can tell you after a lot of discussion with other meteorologists this WAS a hurricane at landfall in every technical sense of the word and you will see it in the final analyses over the next few months. It was warm-core all way the from the surface to the top of the troposphere as it moved over Atlantic City and that is just one of many factors that tell us it was a hurricane at landfall. The satellite presentation was another easy read that this was not post-tropical at landfall. There needs to be another way to handle this than the way it was done this time. And there is NO bigger admirer of the NHC than I am. Believe me.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3860 Postby HurrMark » Thu Nov 01, 2012 6:46 am

Hurricaneman wrote:I think the NHC did the best they could given they could for this hurricane, and not puting hurricane watches and warnings out could be a sore point, but it technically was extratropical at landfall so IMO it was the right call in the end and people should have taken the warnings that were given seriously and not think that high wind warnings < hurricane warnings because in some cases they can be equal


But if that is the case, would you not say that a storm that gives a glancing blow but produces hurricane force winds on the coast...like Hurricane Alex in 2004 or Hurricane Emily in 1993...didn't deserve hurricane warnings. This is the one critique of the NHC over this storm, and I think some discussion over issuing watches/warnings will need to be addressed in the coming months/years.
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