ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3881 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Nov 01, 2012 10:46 pm

HurrMark wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
sammy126 wrote:Why are the storms getting more violent and destructive? Is it due to climate change?


Nope. In fact, the U.S. has seen far fewer major hurricane hits in the past 20 years than back in the 1930s, 40s, 50s and 60s.


Agreed... unless something unprecedented happens in November, we would have gone seven consecutive years without a major landfall. And if you go further back, we have gone 11 out of the last 13 years without one (and the one in 1999 hit the most sparsely populated county on the coast). So we really have been lucky...most of the big storms have either shunted out to sea or stayed south.

Mayor Bloomberg feels Sandy was due to global warming, but while it was a devastating storm, it was devastating only because it was in the "right" place at the "right" time...no other reason. The only thing that might be remotely related to global warming was higher than average SSTs, but most really were not on Sandy's track...they were further north.


Quite a few historic Cat 3's may have actually been Cat 1-2 if modern technology was available, since most were based on pressure-wind relationships. (A few may have been promoted as well, mostly small and rapid deepening storms).

If you look at a lot of historic storms, they would do Katrina-like damage or worse if they happened today. For example, the 1926 Miami hurricane would probably do close to $200 billion in damage if it happened today. The 1938 Long Island Express would do about $75 billion and the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane would probably do some insane number as well.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3882 Postby ozonepete » Fri Nov 02, 2012 12:02 am

sammy126 wrote:Why are the storms getting more violent and destructive? Is it due to climate change?


Watch what people are telling you here or anywhere else when it comes to climate change. They are NOT climatologists and are not qualified to be telling you whether these storms are due to climate change or not. ONLY TRUST CLIMATOLOGISTS WHEN YOU WANT TO KNOW IF THESE STORMS ARE GETTING WORSE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, NOT METEOROLOGISTS. THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE. METEOROLOGISTS ARE NOT QUALIFIED TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. CLIMATOLOGY IS A VERY DIFFERENT AND HIGHLY SPECIALIZED BRANCH OF SCIENCE THAT MOST METEOROLOGISTS KNOW VERY LITTLE ABOUT (INCLUDING ME). AS THIS ISSUE GETS MORE SERIOUS AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT INCESSANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND MONTHS, IT'S IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHO IS QUALIFIED TO ANSWER YOUR VERY IMPORTANT AND TIMELY QUESTION.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3883 Postby Mello1 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:15 am

I totally agree with the remarks made by Ozone Pete. Well stated.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3884 Postby Terry » Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:32 am

Thank you for stating that so succinctly. It's an important reminder.

ozonepete wrote:
sammy126 wrote:Why are the storms getting more violent and destructive? Is it due to climate change?


Watch what people are telling you here or anywhere else when it comes to climate change. They are NOT climatologists and are not qualified to be telling you whether these storms are due to climate change or not. ONLY TRUST CLIMATOLOGISTS WHEN YOU WANT TO KNOW IF THESE STORMS ARE GETTING WORSE DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE, NOT METEOROLOGISTS. THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE. METEOROLOGISTS ARE NOT QUALIFIED TO TALK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE. CLIMATOLOGY IS A VERY DIFFERENT AND HIGHLY SPECIALIZED BRANCH OF SCIENCE THAT MOST METEOROLOGISTS KNOW VERY LITTLE ABOUT (INCLUDING ME). AS THIS ISSUE GETS MORE SERIOUS AND WILL BE TALKED ABOUT INCESSANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AND MONTHS, IT'S IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHO IS QUALIFIED TO ANSWER YOUR VERY IMPORTANT AND TIMELY QUESTION.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3885 Postby Terry » Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:10 am

Interesting graphic. Actually quite sad. It shows the Staten Island evacuation zone and where the deaths occurred. Does anyone have other similar graphics?
STATEN ISLAND GRAPHIC
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3886 Postby Sanibel » Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:24 am

HurrMark wrote:Mayor Bloomberg feels Sandy was due to global warming, but while it was a devastating storm, it was devastating only because it was in the "right" place at the "right" time...no other reason. The only thing that might be remotely related to global warming was higher than average SSTs, but most really were not on Sandy's track...they were further north.




I'm not sure that a more detailed criteria base might not be able to isolate some valid factors like frequency of occurrence of extreme events, out of season occurrence, Pressure-cane wide storm/low pressure, records of extremes, etc that would seriously qualify this perhaps oversimplified analysis. I personally think we're getting into the too many coincidences range and even weak seasons are producing regular disasters. You're looking for evidence in the outer data like the only season for record category 5's in July, or twin landfalling category 5's etc. You know, stuff that's easy to hide in the general data. Also, saying the SST's were higher further north ignores the connectedness of the wholistic effect incurred upon the whole system. If you strip this to a basic binary, Sandy conforms to what you would be looking for rather than doesn't.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3887 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:25 am

Terry wrote:Interesting graphic. Actually quite sad. It shows the Staten Island evacuation zone and where the deaths occurred. Does anyone have other similar graphics?
STATEN ISLAND GRAPHIC


I wonder if we will ever know (through relatives or other contacts) why they couldn't evacuate - economics? not willing to? That is really sad, and shows that people need to evacuate when ordered, and they need to use special mechanisms to seriously encourage people to leave.
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#3888 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:43 am

I think it is time to start arresting people and giving them jail sentences (or at least a very hefty fine) if they ignore mandatory evacuation notices. Reason why? It costs money for the first responders to save your rear (think of the vehicles they lost TRYING to rescue people!), and you are risking their lives to save you. If people that stay behind are charged with even just a $10,000 fine, it will make others think hard about their choice. Technically, by ignoring a mandatory evacuation, aren't they breaking the law, already?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3889 Postby Frank2 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 12:02 pm

The problem with Sandy is that it was a Cat 1 hurricane wind-wise with a Cat 3 or 4 pressure and storm surge, not to mention the timing of the full moon...

Having lived in that area as a child, from my memory residents there are not at all familiar with severe seasonal events of fire, flood, hurricane or tornado, and when they do happen are usually not prepared - the stories of people going to their basements during a flood warning was one sad example...

Frank
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Re:

#3890 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 02, 2012 2:59 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I think it is time to start arresting people and giving them jail sentences (or at least a very hefty fine) if they ignore mandatory evacuation notices.

Technically, by ignoring a mandatory evacuation, aren't they breaking the law, already?



I'd go with the fines, but not the arrests. Jails have enough problems.

Here's the kicker though that I have seen mentioned in some evacuations. NO emergency responses until after the event. NONE. You stay, you do so at your own risk and peril.

After the event, if you have to be rescued, one of two things happen:

>> You pay a fine, maybe $1,000
>> You get assigned to relief/rescue duties as community service.
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#3891 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:04 pm

One other thing that I knew would happen and needs to be stopped.

Apparently some utility crews from Alabama were turned away because they were non-union. NYC and surrounding areas are vehemently union and there is a long history of non-union workers being thrown off jobs, assaulted and robbed among other things.

Whether or not this should be allowed under normal circumstances is for some other discussion, but it absolutely must NEVER be allowed in disaster zones.
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#3892 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:46 pm

The flack and fallout is ramping up:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012 ... ane-center

I wouldn't be too surprised to see a call for Knabb's resignation.
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#3893 Postby galaxy401 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 4:32 pm

Bloomberg just canceled the NYC marathon. Seen as breaking news in various news sites.
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#3894 Postby jaxfladude » Fri Nov 02, 2012 6:08 pm

Prayer bump.
:flag:
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3895 Postby sammy126 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 6:31 pm

Thank you all for responding to my question! I learn so much about weather and hurricanes on this site. Keep up the good work. 8-)
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#3896 Postby WeatherGuesser » Fri Nov 02, 2012 6:44 pm

In a posthumously published public-access TV interview from August uploaded to YouTube on Monday, (Bounty Captain Robin) Walbridge said "we chase hurricanes" and gently boasted of surviving 70-foot waves with the Bounty.

"You try to get up as close to the eye of it as you can, and you stay down in the southeast quadrant, and when it stops, you stop, you don't want to get in front of it, you want to stay behind it, but you also get a good ride out of a hurricane," said Walbridge, 63.

A call to the HMS Bounty Organization was not answered Friday.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nati ... 3839.story

:eek: :?:
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Re:

#3897 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Nov 02, 2012 6:46 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:The flack and fallout is ramping up:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012 ... ane-center

I wouldn't be too surprised to see a call for Knabb's resignation.

If calls for Knabb's resignation start popping up I will be one of the first people screaming foul!!!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3898 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:
sammy126 wrote:Why are the storms getting more violent and destructive? Is it due to climate change?


Nope. In fact, the U.S. has seen far fewer major hurricane hits in the past 20 years than back in the 1930s, 40s, 50s and 60s.


America is more populated than compared to the past. More people are moving closer to the coast as most of America's major metropolitan areas are on or near the coast.

American Population Since 1930
1930 - 123,202,624
1940 - 132,164,569
1950 - 151,325,798
1960 - 179,323,175
1970 - 203,302,031
1980 - 226,542,199
1990 - 248,709,873
2000 - 281,421,906
2010 - 307,745,538

Since 1930, America's population has nearly tripled.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3899 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Nov 02, 2012 7:53 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Terry wrote:Interesting graphic. Actually quite sad. It shows the Staten Island evacuation zone and where the deaths occurred. Does anyone have other similar graphics?
STATEN ISLAND GRAPHIC


I wonder if we will ever know (through relatives or other contacts) why they couldn't evacuate - economics? not willing to? That is really sad, and shows that people need to evacuate when ordered, and they need to use special mechanisms to seriously encourage people to leave.


Complacency. Here is a good article about the dangers of complacency.

What does Ray Nagin, Diane Downs and Richard Reid have in common?
http://www.improvementguru.com/2009/07/ ... s-and.html
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3900 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:26 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
sammy126 wrote:Why are the storms getting more violent and destructive? Is it due to climate change?


Nope. In fact, the U.S. has seen far fewer major hurricane hits in the past 20 years than back in the 1930s, 40s, 50s and 60s.


America is more populated than compared to the past. More people are moving closer to the coast as most of America's major metropolitan areas are on or near the coast.

American Population Since 1930
1930 - 123,202,624
1940 - 132,164,569
1950 - 151,325,798
1960 - 179,323,175
1970 - 203,302,031
1980 - 226,542,199
1990 - 248,709,873
2000 - 281,421,906
2010 - 307,745,538

Since 1930, America's population has nearly tripled.

And a lot of it is concentrated near the coasts.
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