ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: Re:

#3901 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Nov 02, 2012 9:31 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
WeatherGuesser wrote:The flack and fallout is ramping up:

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012 ... ane-center

I wouldn't be too surprised to see a call for Knabb's resignation.

If calls for Knabb's resignation start popping up I will be one of the first people screaming foul!!!

I want to add a little clarification to my stance here. I received the following from a very reliable NWS source.
In this case, this was *not* NHC's call. They simply acquiesced to what the coastal NWS offices north of NC wanted. NHC did in fact propose TC watches during a couple of conference calls, however the coastal FO's - Wakefield VA, Mount Holly NJ (PHL), and Upton (NYC) - stated that they wanted to handle the storm with the non-tropical suite of products since they felt the cyclone was either going to already be post-tropical, or almost there.

I'm not saying one way or the other is better in this case, but a case such as this highlights the misperception that NHC does things unilaterally.

If anyone wants to cast alleged blame in this instance, then direct it at those NWS offices, not NHC.
There is actually more to this message but this is the actual post I initially received.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3902 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:22 pm

vbhoutex wrote:And a lot of it is concentrated near the coasts.


Of that population, nearly 200 million are in areas that are potentially at risk of tropical weather (including near-inland areas).
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#3903 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 10:46 pm

I think at least one key point came out of this storm:

Education. Education. Education. We need education. The public, the emergency managers, the police and fire departments, everyone needs to be taught more. Most of them didn't really know what a surge looked like, or what it is even capable of (despite what happened on the shores of Mississippi 7 years ago, and countless other places over the years). Most had never experienced a hurricane, other than Irene.

I think they thought what they saw from Irene was all a hurricane could do to their area (remember, Irene was called a Category 1 hurricane in real time, and was downgraded in post analysis, so most people probably never realized it WASN'T a hurricane when it impacted NJ/NYC/other northern areas!!!). Another thing is, this perception of nontropical systems being "less dangerous" than hurricanes needs to be destroyed. Each system is unique, no two are alike. Therefore, their danger ratings will never be the same. As far as nontropical goes, had we really forgotten how much damage the "Perfect Storm" caused all along the east coast? The huge amounts of coastal erosion, storm surge flooding, strong winds, power outages, etc?

Those who don't learn, or refuse to learn, from the past are doomed to repeat it. I think it is time a National Awareness program kicks off, and I mean one strictly dedicated to awareness and nothing BUT awareness. The program can have offices regionally, with at least two members from each state in their region, so that state level or lower emergency officials can have classes and learn about hazards that could potentially impact their specific areas. The two or more members per state helps focus on that state's various weather impacts only, and allows sufficient time for set ups with EOM officials, as well as various outreach classes with the general public, as requested.

For example, NYS would need at least 2 people, because of the size of the state and that the state has areas upstate that deal with Lake Effect Snow events and high wind events (you really don't grasp the impact of an LES event until you've been through one!). Then down on the coast, they deal with tropical weather and the worst effects of Nor' Easters.

Would it really be so horrible to allocate funds to such a program? One that could help, massively, mitigate property losses and save lives through the sharing of knowledge? In tornado alley (and really, elsewhere), they could work with people in setting up storm shelters in their houses, and keep on hand the laws and regulations going toward government assistance in purchasing the shelters, etc. This would allow the NWS, and other sectors, to focus on the warning aspect, versus trying to do outreach as well.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3904 Postby Ptarmigan » Fri Nov 02, 2012 11:54 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
America is more populated than compared to the past. More people are moving closer to the coast as most of America's major metropolitan areas are on or near the coast.

American Population Since 1930
1930 - 123,202,624
1940 - 132,164,569
1950 - 151,325,798
1960 - 179,323,175
1970 - 203,302,031
1980 - 226,542,199
1990 - 248,709,873
2000 - 281,421,906
2010 - 307,745,538

Since 1930, America's population has nearly tripled.

And a lot of it is concentrated near the coasts.


No doubt.

Top 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA MSA 19,015,900
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA MSA 12,944,801
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI MSA 9,504,753
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA 6,526,548
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX MSA 6,086,538
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA 5,992,414
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA 5,703,948
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL MSA 5,670,125

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA MSA 5,359,205
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH MSA 4,591,112
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA MSA 4,391,037
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA 4,304,997
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI MSA 4,285,832
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ MSA 4,263,236
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA MSA 3,500,026
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI MSA 3,318,486
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA MSA 3,140,069
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 2,824,724
St. Louis, MO-IL MSA 2,817,355
Baltimore-Towson, MD MSA 2729110

Bold denotes risk for Atlantic hurricanes.

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro ... 011-01.csv

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Last edited by Ptarmigan on Sat Nov 03, 2012 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3905 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 12:02 am

Ptarmigan wrote:
Top 20 Combined Statistical Areas
New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 22,214,083
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 18,081,569
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9,729,825
Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 8,718,083
Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH 7,601,061

San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7,563,460
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 6,887,383
Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6,562,287
Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 6,191,434

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL 5,712,148
Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5,207,434
Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA 4,269,349
Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI 3,655,558
Denver-Aurora-Boulder, CO 3,157,520
Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH 2,871,084
St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL 2,882,932
Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL 2,861,296
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Yuba City, CA-NV 2,489,230
Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,450,281
Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, NC-SC 2,442,564

Bold means in hurricane area.

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro ... 011-02.csv


Several others on that list are in hurricane areas too. I color-coded it from lowest risk (green) to highest risk (purple) - Miami is notably missing on that list.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3906 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Nov 03, 2012 12:04 am

CrazyC83 wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:
Top 20 Combined Statistical Areas
New York-Newark-Bridgeport, NY-NJ-CT-PA 22,214,083
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Riverside, CA 18,081,569
Chicago-Naperville-Michigan City, IL-IN-WI 9,729,825
Washington-Baltimore-Northern Virginia, DC-MD-VA-WV 8,718,083
Boston-Worcester-Manchester, MA-RI-NH 7,601,061

San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA 7,563,460
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 6,887,383
Philadelphia-Camden-Vineland, PA-NJ-DE-MD 6,562,287
Houston-Baytown-Huntsville, TX 6,191,434

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Gainesville, GA-AL 5,712,148
Detroit-Warren-Flint, MI 5,207,434
Seattle-Tacoma-Olympia, WA 4,269,349
Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud, MN-WI 3,655,558
Denver-Aurora-Boulder, CO 3,157,520
Cleveland-Akron-Elyria, OH 2,871,084
St. Louis-St. Charles-Farmington, MO-IL 2,882,932
Orlando-Deltona-Daytona Beach, FL 2,861,296
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Yuba City, CA-NV 2,489,230
Pittsburgh-New Castle, PA 2,450,281
Charlotte-Gastonia-Salisbury, NC-SC 2,442,564

Bold means in hurricane area.

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/metro ... 011-02.csv


Several others on that list are in hurricane areas too. I color-coded it from lowest risk (green) to highest risk (purple) - Miami is notably missing on that list.


I revised it after realizing Miami and Tampa. Metropolitan areas are defined differently.
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Re:

#3907 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:04 am

WeatherGuesser wrote:One other thing that I knew would happen and needs to be stopped.

Apparently some utility crews from Alabama were turned away because they were non-union. NYC and surrounding areas are vehemently union and there is a long history of non-union workers being thrown off jobs, assaulted and robbed among other things.

Whether or not this should be allowed under normal circumstances is for some other discussion, but it absolutely must NEVER be allowed in disaster zones.


This story was debunked:

http://blog.al.com/breaking/2012/11/hun ... es_cl.html
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#3908 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:28 am

I'm reading a lot of the stories of the tragedies...some of them totally preventable. Something like 10 to 15 of the deaths were from things like CO2 poisoning from generators (which will count as indirect deaths in the final total). Sometimes the aftermath can be deadlier than the storm itself. Sad :'(
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3909 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:34 am

They should have cancelled the Marathon right away. Running past destruction, deaths and ruin doesn't make sense from the start. Instead they let the runners fly in at thousands of dollars in expense and then cancelled.


Now the Euro shows a nor-easter developing on Wednesday for New York.
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#3910 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:27 pm

65 million: The number of people impacted by the storm.
945 miles: The radius of tropical storm-force winds at landfall.
1.8 million square miles: The area impacted by Hurricane Sandy.
14.6': The maximum U.S.A. storm tide
9.45': The maximum U.S.A. storm surge
2.5': The maximum U.S.A. snowfall value recorded
12.55": Maximum U.S.A. rainfall value recorded
110: The current U.S.A. death toll
182: The current overall death toll from Sandy
$50 billion: The estimated damage total from Sandy

End result: We will not be seeing a tropical cyclone named Sandy in the Atlantic basin ever again.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3911 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:46 pm

Sanibel wrote:They should have cancelled the Marathon right away. Running past destruction, deaths and ruin doesn't make sense from the start. Instead they let the runners fly in at thousands of dollars in expense and then cancelled.


Now the Euro shows a nor-easter developing on Wednesday for New York.


Off Topic=Discussions about the Nor'easter are going on in the Winter forum on the New England thread.

viewtopic.php?f=22&t=113752&p=2289001#p2289001
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3912 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Nov 03, 2012 7:40 pm

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#3913 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:34 am

Based on that, maybe Subtropical Cyclone was the best classification at landfall. How would a hurricane-strength subtropical system be classified though?
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Re:

#3914 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:53 am

CrazyC83 wrote:Based on that, maybe Subtropical Cyclone was the best classification at landfall. How would a hurricane-strength subtropical system be classified though?

And what warnings would be issued? I would presume normal warnings, but would anyone care to take on the classification question or for that matter if I am wrong in my assumption answer that one too?
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Re: Re:

#3915 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:56 am

vbhoutex wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on that, maybe Subtropical Cyclone was the best classification at landfall. How would a hurricane-strength subtropical system be classified though?

And what warnings would be issued? I would presume normal warnings, but would anyone care to take on the classification question or for that matter if I am wrong in my assumption answer that one too?


Normal NHC warnings in that case.
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#3916 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:57 am

http://www.icenews.is/index.php/2012/11 ... s-iceland/

Sandy is not dead yet? Looking at OPC surface low tracks, that 960mb low that formed (weakened since to 982mb and expected to dissipate near/over the British Isles) was mostly due to Sandy's energy connecting to other fronts.
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Re: Re:

#3917 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Nov 04, 2012 2:22 pm

vbhoutex wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Based on that, maybe Subtropical Cyclone was the best classification at landfall. How would a hurricane-strength subtropical system be classified though?

And what warnings would be issued? I would presume normal warnings, but would anyone care to take on the classification question or for that matter if I am wrong in my assumption answer that one too?


I think this goes to the separation between meteorological science and public information. The public doesn't care how it's classified. They want to know and be warned about and prepared for the effects. If it's going to bring 70-80 mile or greater winds, heavy rains and storm surge flooding, issue Hurricane Warnings and Watches even if it doesn't meet the technical definitions due to internal structure.

Save the technical stuff for the Mets. Inform the public in terms they can understand.

High wind and related advisories and warnings are not uncommon and are not taken as seriously by the public.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3918 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Nov 04, 2012 2:33 pm

This is COMPLETELY unofficial but here is my guess for the best track. I made a few minor track changes post-landfall (farther south) and also extended it. I could track it as far as Thursday afternoon before a new low seemed to take over in Atlantic Canada, which is frontal with a deep low near Iceland. Note the disclaimer at the bottom as the peak intensity is based on a surface observation with an uncertain sustaining period.

22/1200 13.3 / 78.2 30 kt - 1003mb Tropical Depression
22/1800 12.7 / 78.4 35 kt - 1000mb Tropical Storm

23/0000 12.7 / 78.6 40 kt - 998mb
23/0600 13.1 / 78.3 40 kt - 997mb
23/1200 13.5 / 78.0 45 kt - 995mb
23/1800 14.0 / 77.7 50 kt - 993mb

24/0000 14.8 / 77.3 55 kt - 990mb
24/0600 15.7 / 77.1 60 kt - 986mb
24/1200 16.6 / 76.9 70 kt - 980mb Hurricane
24/1800 17.7 / 76.7 80 kt - 971mb
24/1915 17.9 / 76.6 80 kt - 969mb Landfall at Harbour View, Jamaica

25/0000 18.7 / 76.4 85 kt - 964mb
25/0600 19.7 / 76.0 100 kt - 955mb* *see note
25/0700 20.0 / 75.9 105 kt - 954mb* Landfall at Santiago de Cuba and maximum winds, *see note
25/1200 21.6 / 75.5 90 kt - 965mb
25/1800 23.6 / 75.3 85 kt - 963mb

26/0000 24.8 / 75.8 75 kt - 967mb
26/0600 25.8 / 76.5 70 kt - 970mb
26/1200 26.4 / 76.9 70 kt - 970mb
26/1800 27.0 / 77.1 60 kt - 972mb Tropical Storm

27/0000 27.4 / 77.2 55 kt - 970mb
27/0600 28.1 / 76.9 60 kt - 966mb
27/1200 28.8 / 76.6 70 kt - 956mb Hurricane
27/1800 29.8 / 75.6 70 kt - 959mb

28/0000 30.5 / 74.7 65 kt - 959mb
28/0600 31.4 / 73.9 65 kt - 958mb
28/1200 32.1 / 73.1 65 kt - 952mb
28/1800 32.8 / 71.9 65 kt - 951mb

29/0000 33.9 / 71.0 70 kt - 949mb
29/0600 35.2 / 70.5 80 kt - 946mb
29/1200 36.7 / 70.9 80 kt - 943mb
29/1800 38.3 / 73.0 75 kt - 940mb Extratropical
29/2330 39.2 / 74.6 70 kt - 943mb Landfall near Ocean City, NJ

30/0000 39.3 / 74.7 70 kt - 945mb
30/0600 39.2 / 76.2 60 kt - 957mb
30/1200 39.7 / 77.9 50 kt - 973mb
30/1800 40.5 / 78.9 45 kt - 983mb

31/0000 41.5 / 79.3 45 kt - 990mb
31/0600 42.8 / 79.0 40 kt - 992mb
31/1200 44.2 / 78.8 40 kt - 994mb
31/1800 45.4 / 78.2 40 kt - 993mb

01/0000 46.9 / 77.9 35 kt - 992mb
01/0600 48.3 / 77.5 35 kt - 990mb
01/1200 49.8 / 77.0 35 kt - 990mb
01/1800 51.9 / 77.0 35 kt - 990mb

02/0000 Absorbed by long cold front associated with storm near Iceland

*The 100 kt intensity at 25/0600 and the 105 kt landfall intensity are based on the assumption the measured wind of 84 kt at El Ramon (Cuban north shore) are 10-min sustained, which translates into 95 kt using the gust factor of 1.11 and adjusting for post-landfall weakening. If they are 1-min sustained, the intensity at both 25/0600 and landfall are estimated to be 95 kt in agreement with aircraft data.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3919 Postby TheEuropean » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:08 am

CrazyC83 wrote:This is COMPLETELY unofficial but here is my guess for the best track. I made a few minor track changes post-landfall (farther south) and also extended it. I could track it as far as Thursday afternoon before a new low seemed to take over in Atlantic Canada, which is frontal with a deep low near Iceland. Note the disclaimer at the bottom as the peak intensity is based on a surface observation with an uncertain sustaining period.

25/0600 19.7 / 76.0 100 kt - 955mb* *see note
25/0700 20.0 / 75.9 105 kt - 954mb* Landfall at Santiago de Cuba and maximum winds, *see note
29/1800 38.3 / 73.0 75 kt - 940mb Extratropical
29/2330 39.2 / 74.6 70 kt - 943mb Landfall near Ocean City, NJ

30/0000 39.3 / 74.7 70 kt - 945mb

*The 100 kt intensity at 25/0600 and the 105 kt landfall intensity are based on the assumption the measured wind of 84 kt at El Ramon (Cuban north shore) are 10-min sustained, which translates into 95 kt using the gust factor of 1.11 and adjusting for post-landfall weakening. If they are 1-min sustained, the intensity at both 25/0600 and landfall are estimated to be 95 kt in agreement with aircraft data.


Hello, I agree with Cat-3 at landfall in eastern cuba, but I don't believe that Sandy was fully extratropical when it hit NJ. It still had a warm core within that large extratropical system. So for me it was a hybrid system or something subtropical, not tropical and not extratropical.

I would set the central pressure at 946 mb at landfall, data from plane showed slowly rising pressure when Sandy hit land.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Remnants - Discussion

#3920 Postby angelwing » Mon Nov 05, 2012 7:12 am

I am wondering if the insurance company in PA would consider this a tropical cyclone since there were no hurricane warnings out as my deductible is 10 times for hurricane damage:(
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