ATL: SANDY - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Nogaps, in at Miami and out near WPB. It's by itself with this idea.

not bye itself. its a little farther to the left but same synoptic thinking.

[x-y-no]

Euro at 24: nice tight system at 971mb.

[x-y-no]

Euro at 48:



A little right?

[MiamiensisWx]

My guess is that the 12Z ECMWF will shift slightly to the east, relative to 00Z, circa 36-54 hours.

Edit: I was right...

[Aric Dunn]

euro 48hrs no change from 00z yet. appears maybe a tad weaker.

[SFLcane]

12z GFDL...

[MiamiensisWx]

Euro at 48:



A little right?

It is significantly (probably four-tenths of a degree) to the right. Compare to 00Z:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif

The west shift toward S FL has stopped, based upon the east shift here. GFS and NOGAPS hug the west edge of the consensus while the ECMWF and HWRF are just to the east.

[Aric Dunn]

gfdl now in line with euro gfs cmc all doing a stall / cyclonic loop just north of the bahamas .... gfdl has hurricane force winds 20 miles offshore.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

Euro at 48:



A little right?

It is significantly (probably four-tenths of a degree) to the right. Compare to 00Z:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeurotropical850mbVortSLP072.gif

The west shift toward S FL has stopped, based upon the east shift here. GFS and NOGAPS hug the west edge of the consensus while the ECMWF and HWRF are just to the east.

you cant compare to separate maps. there is little change.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro seems alot faster getting to NW Bahamas than 00Z.

[x-y-no]

It's pretty hard to compare 12z and 0z because the timepoints are different. Remember euro does that NW jog around this timeframe.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf big cyclonic loop central bahamas almost to the florida coast.

interesting models now picking up on some ridigning developing and slowing it down and turning nw to wnw or a loop..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[gatorcane]

hwrf big cyclonic loop central bahamas almost to the florida coast.

interesting models now picking up on some ridigning developing and slowing it down and turning nw to wnw or a loop..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

uggh I know....they are sniffing out some ridge. Was looking good for Florida a couple of days ago, definitely not so much anymore.

[x-y-no]

Euro at 72:

[Aric Dunn]

yep euro at 72 hrs maintains that nnw motion and begins to slow like 12z yesterday and 00z last night. will it loop around though and approach florida

[gatorcane]

Euro has it bending NW into Florida if you loop it....bet in the next frame it starts to move it back NE or NNE...but getting close to Florida on that run.

[Aric Dunn]

euro 72 hours has 70kts onshore central florida. reduce from 850 mb and thats 55kt to 65kt.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=072

[Vortex]

Its seems quite plausible now that portions of coastal FL *may* experience near hurricane force wind gusts...The coastal flooding and beach erosion certainly could be some of the worst in recent memory for the entire US east coast...

[SFLcane]

hwrf big cyclonic loop central bahamas almost to the florida coast.

interesting models now picking up on some ridigning developing and slowing it down and turning nw to wnw or a loop..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

uggh I know....they are sniffing out some ridge. Was looking good for Florida a couple of days ago, definitely not so much anymore.

ECM is similar to the HWRF in terms of small ridigning.

[jlauderdal]

hwrf big cyclonic loop central bahamas almost to the florida coast.

interesting models now picking up on some ridigning developing and slowing it down and turning nw to wnw or a loop..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

interesting, will need to get the plane out there tomorrow and see what is actually happening and pump data into the models and see how they resolve all of this...should get the special sounding request from NHC soon