ATL: SANDY - Models
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- weatherwindow
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
I rarely comment on stupidity...but given the potential disaster facing the Northeast, I feel compelled....the on camera talking head makes this statement...."after paralleling the Mid Atlantic coast, Sandy may turn back toward the Northeast, but by that time, it will only be a WEAK DEPRESSION".....ugggh
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
weatherwindow wrote:I rarely comment on stupidity...but given the potential disaster facing the Northeast, I feel compelled....the on camera talking head makes this statement...."after paralleling the Mid Atlantic coast, Sandy may turn back toward the Northeast, but by that time, it will only be a WEAK DEPRESSION".....ugggh
Nothing in these Forecast models indicate it will be weak Depression... It MAY not be full tropical any more but it still has the potential to be just as Destructive as a Fully Tropical Hurricane. Maybe even more so giving the location it could be impacting!
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- Blown Away
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Re:
deltadog03 wrote:Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.
How far off compared to the forecast track? Can you post a graphic?
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- deltadog03
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Re: Re:
Blown Away wrote:deltadog03 wrote:Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.
How far off compared to the forecast track? Can you post a graphic?
I wish I could, but not sure if I am allowed too. I will say the new run is a bit further off the coast, but that first run I had seen today was like a EURO type track.
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- Hurricane Alexis
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The first 36 hours of the 18z GFS don't concur with the NHC track.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Hurricane Alexis wrote:The first 36 hours of the 18z GFS don't concur with the NHC track.
I would take the 18Z with a grain of salt as it is intermediate...we will see what the 00Z says and if a trend eastward perhaps may be starting.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Steve H. wrote:so the 18z gfs is now east of the 12z?
Yeah...the GFS at least is...it misses the connection with the trough...it eventually doubles back to the west but far to the northeast by that point, and it is a typical wintertime low for the Canadian Maritimes at that point.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
SFLcane wrote:pretty substantial shift i'd say with some of the 00z models. if this pans out or continues strong TS winds could stay over the water and away from florida.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_18
Sflcane, What 00z models have already come out, and where can I find the 00z models?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- deltadog03
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Ok. Sounds good. Is it true the 18z gfs contains no new data and that only the 00z and 12z contain new data?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- DESTRUCTION5
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- Bocadude85
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Re:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:^^ Nothing changed here really.All the "real" models still meet near Long Island Bahamas in 48-54 hrs...right on target..
Yup and then they all turn NNW in the general direction of Great Abaco/Grand Bahama
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Re:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:FWIW (probably not much) the 0Z Nam takes Sandy awfully close to Miami. Pretty much right offshore Key Largo/Homestead at 36 hrs.
Oh, hooray! But it's just the NAM
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models
Thursday will be a very important day in the models world. This from Dr Jeff Masters.
An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.
An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.
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