ATL: SANDY - Models

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pgoss11
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#601 Postby pgoss11 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:42 pm

ROCK wrote:12Z CMC...didnt see it posted on here....same as 0Z....brutal...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


I'm a weather enthusiast but that makes me nauseous. :eek:
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HURRICANELONNY
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#602 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Oct 25, 2012 4:57 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
ROCK wrote:12Z CMC...didnt see it posted on here....same as 0Z....brutal...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation


I'm a weather enthusiast but that makes me nauseous. :eek:

It's the CMC. :D
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#603 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:30 pm

18z GFS?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#604 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:42 pm

Does that 18z Gfs have info from the ballons today since that set off balloons 4 times today? If so it is coming around to Euro model. Now just south of NYC as well
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#605 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 6:18 pm

jhpigott wrote:18z GFS?


Image

Eeek.

You can view the loop at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#606 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:06 pm

The 18Z GFS is basically a South Jersey rather than North Jersey landfall...really won't make a difference for NYC since it will still be on the dirty side of the storm. The difference is that in this run, it drops to northern Virginia and essentially slowly craws north through 1 NOV when it finally crosses into upstate NY. The 12Z run takes it north through western New England at a slightly quicker rate. Either way, incredible inland flooding appears likely.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#607 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:21 pm

The 18Z GFDL has Sandy hooking around Cape Hatteras, and North Carolina then going over the DelMarVA peninsula inland... at 929mb.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#608 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:01 pm

BobHarlem wrote:The 18Z GFDL has Sandy hooking around Cape Hatteras, and North Carolina then going over the DelMarVA peninsula inland... at 929mb.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... lLoop.html


The regional models are probably not very reliable in this situation.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#609 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:35 pm

18Z HWRF into Jersey NYC.....930MB.....man someone wake up the upper EC....jeez


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#610 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:41 pm

Here is the spagetti.

Image
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#611 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:50 pm

A direct hit on NYC by several different models, and they swing it out to sea, before coming at NYC, so that the angle of attack is nearly perfect for a worst case scenario...wow.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#612 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:40 pm

00z GFS is running. It really doesn't move much between 12 and 36 hours does it?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#613 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:41 pm

0z GFS SW of the 18z through 24 hours
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#614 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:43 pm

I know it is just 1/3 of the BAM, but the BAMD is going right over my house in SE NC now. lol
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#615 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:43 pm

And remember, all of these runs have the extra upper air data in them, from across the country!
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#616 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:46 pm

At 54 hrs 00Z is slightly east of 12Z...also 4 mb weaker.
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#617 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:52 pm

63 hrs it is still east...most of the heavy stuff is offshore NC unlike 12Z, where the coast gets the fringes. Also 968 mb vs. 972 mb at 12Z.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#618 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 25, 2012 10:57 pm

At 78 hrs it is now actually slightly west of 12Z...with no pressure difference (964 mb). Interesting thing is that the trough is more or less vertical rather than negatively tilted like it was at this point 12Z. We will see how that impacts it...
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#619 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:03 pm

A tad north of 12Z at 90 hrs...starting to see a negative tilt but not as pronounced as the 12Z tilt.
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#620 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:05 pm

Could this go straight up like Hazel in 1954 instead of make the tricky bends?
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