ATL: SANDY - Models

[hurricanedude]

thats cat 4 intensity..would be a mess for sure...Im in the thick of it..wahoo..

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

12z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[hurricanedude]

both of those look out to sea.....

[SouthDadeFish]

At 96 hours the Euro has it moving through the central Bahamas like the other 12Z models and starting to deepen:

[SouthDadeFish]

At 120 hours there is a more westerly component of motion and down to 971mb:

[Blown Away]

From 96 hrs to 120 hrs, TD18 moves NW about 100 miles off Central Florida.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif

[Blown Away]

Does anyone think that South Florida will be in the cone by 5pm?

Looking at the 12z Euro, the 120 hour position is about 250 west of the NHC position at 120 hours, so that tells me the NHC not to concerned with the Euro's west trend.

[Dean4Storms]

ECMWF at 168hr @ 951mb.........

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=168

[OuterBanker]

Blown away. I think the NHC is just waiting for recon info, not that they aren't concerned about the Euro run.

[adam0983]

I am waiting to see what the new gfs at 5pm shows. Lets hope that tropical depression 18 will go out to sea.

[HurricaneBelle]

ECMWF at 168hr @ 951mb.........

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=168

Looks like it's headed out to sea, but then the Euro hooks it back at 216hr for a direct hit on Boston/SoMass/Rhode Island heading due north.

[adam0983]

Storms this time of year usually get hooked out to sea because of cold fronts. Lets hope this happens.

[Frank2]

It'd have to be a hybrid system by then if it moved towards New England - too cool up there for a viable hurricane...

So far it seems the NNE motion out to sea is the best scenario (Cuba is going to have a bad time with this, possibly)...

Frank

[Hurricaneman]

The 12ZEuro is on drugs, there is not going to be a pressure of 926 heading for the NEUS, but the track I really can't discount though if this does indeed phase with the trough

[Blown Away]

12z Dynamic Models

Euro pretty much alone with it's western movement into the NW Bahamas.

[Dean4Storms]

ECMWF 12z is further east with landfall in NE. It might be telling us that the GFS is not out to lunch so much.

[Blown Away]

Jamaica, Cuba, SE Bahamas, and out to sea looking probable! Maybe Bermuda!

[Aric Dunn]

actually the 12z cmc does bend back towards the NW bahamas and gets awfully close to SE Fl. thought the spaghetti plots seem to differ then the animations. as it leaves the cuba it jogs a little more n to nnw before turning out.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the euro is a little on the scary side to say the least.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

[adam0983]

Big shift east in the models. This is great news for florida.