ATL: SANDY - Models

[gatorcane]

Models really want to intensify Sandy further when she interacts with the trough headed for the east coast. The 00z GFS starts at 11:30pm est

Link:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zgfs.html

[nashrobertsx]

I just cant believe no one posted anything in two hours on this thread if this is the storm of the century. I thought it went unusually quiet or broke for a moment. Glad to see someone woke up.

[KBBOCA]

I just did a little compare & contrast.
Last year's Irene models thread had 53 pages just in the first 2 days or so, and 257 pages total...

Seriously, I don't get the quiet.

And yes, while waiting for the 00z models, I did go back to the beginning of this thread. I think Blown Away should win an award for his/her comment on Oct 21:

"I have a feeling 99L is going to be a crazy October track with many surprises."

from here: viewtopic.php?p=2281458#p2281458

INDEED... all too prophetic, I'm afraid.

[gatorcane]

I just did a little compare & contrast.
Last year's Irene models thread had 53 pages just in the first 2 days or so, and 257 pages total...

Seriously, I don't get the quiet.

And yes, while waiting for the 00z models, I did go back to the beginning of this thread. I think Blown Away should win an award for his/her comment on Oct 21:

"I have a feeling 99L is going to be a crazy October track with many surprises."

from here: viewtopic.php?p=2281458#p2281458

INDEED... all too prophetic, I'm afraid.

I think three reasons:

1. The storm doesn't look all that impressive now

2. It's so late in the season many people have checked out. With Irene it was near the height of the season.

3. There is some complacency leftover from Irene - many people just don't think it will get that bad so are not worried.

[KBBOCA]

gator, thanks for the link to the 00z GFS.

And yes, I think your reasons are probably accurate.
I agree this caught me totally off guard. I too had checked out ever since Nadine.

(It didn't help that gmail started sending my NWS/NHC updates to my spam filter!)

So I was late in even knowing about Sandy. She was already battering Jamaica by the time I knew she existed.

But what's odd to me is that it is precisely because this is not a "normal storm" that has me so hooked. It is the uniqueness, utter absurdity almost of the "perfect storm" scenario (full moon, high tides, angle of approach, baroclinic intensifying...) that has me hooked, (and of course the fact that it's aiming for the most densely populated part of the country and the area where I have my roots.)

If this were just some normal Cat1 or Cat2, no matter how "pretty" a storm, headed up the east coast, I wouldn't be awake and typing this at 3a.m. (I'm on GMT).

[CrazyC83]

Also another factor is some forecasts thought Irene was going to hit Florida, and we have a lot more members in Florida and the Gulf Coast than in the Northeast.

[Duddy]

I wonder if we can expect any shifts further south like last night.

[ROCK]

I am surprised that there is not more traffic in here as well....the potential to shut down the largest city in NA is very high but yet the media is not giving this its due.....I guess when the power is out to millions of people, the subways are flooded by storm surge it will get the point across....

18Z NOGAPS in 78hrs you are going to have this knocking on millions of peoples door...pray they are prepared...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[HurrMark]

I think we aren't seeing much activity now for four reasons:

1) The Florida effects are winding down for the most part
2) The eye is gone as it transitions, so the "wobble wars" aren't as apparent...especially at night
3) We more or less know what it is going to do for the next 24-36 hours
4) It's a Friday night so many people are out.

Anyway, waiting for the 00Z GFS...should be interesting to see if there is any shift.

[Ken711]

I think we aren't seeing much activity now for four reasons:

1) The Florida effects are winding down for the most part
2) The eye is gone as it transitions, so the "wobble wars" aren't as apparent...especially at night
3) We more or less know what it is going to do for the next 24-36 hours
4) It's a Friday night so many people are out.

Anyway, waiting for the 00Z GFS...should be interesting to see if there is any shift.

When will the 00Z GFS be available? When is the next update on the Euro model?

[HurrMark]

At 33 hrs, it looks a tad west of the 12z

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121027%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=030&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=10%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

[HurrMark]

I think we aren't seeing much activity now for four reasons:

1) The Florida effects are winding down for the most part
2) The eye is gone as it transitions, so the "wobble wars" aren't as apparent...especially at night
3) We more or less know what it is going to do for the next 24-36 hours
4) It's a Friday night so many people are out.

Anyway, waiting for the 00Z GFS...should be interesting to see if there is any shift.

When will the 00Z GFS be available? When is the next update on the Euro model?

It's running now and will be running for the next hour (although by midnight or so we should know the solution). Euro won't be available until 2-3 AM EDT.

[HurrMark]

45 hours...probably a good degree or so west of the 12Z...and a bit stronger.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121027%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_042_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=042&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=10%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

[Ken711]

I think we aren't seeing much activity now for four reasons:

1) The Florida effects are winding down for the most part
2) The eye is gone as it transitions, so the "wobble wars" aren't as apparent...especially at night
3) We more or less know what it is going to do for the next 24-36 hours
4) It's a Friday night so many people are out.

Anyway, waiting for the 00Z GFS...should be interesting to see if there is any shift.

When will the 00Z GFS be available? When is the next update on the Euro model?

It's running now and will be running for the next hour (although by midnight or so we should know the solution). Euro won't be available until 2-3 AM EDT.

Thanks. I'm wondering whether they will continue to project a landfall in the Northern part of the NHC cone.

[HurrMark]

60 hours...much closer to the coast than 12Z...very nasty weather up and down the Garden State.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121027%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=057&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=10%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

[HurrMark]

Central Jersey landfall Monday evening...right around high tide in NYC...worst possible scenario.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121027%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=069&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=10%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

[cycloneye]

Wow! 00z GFS landfall.

http://img341.imageshack.us/img341/2792 ... aaf6d6.png

[HurrMark]

Wow...this thing is booking it all the way to Ohio...

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Param&image=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fgfs%2F20121027%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_090_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&fcast=090&model=GFS&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=10%2F27%2F2012+00UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=model&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes

[brunota2003]

Pending the 00Z ECMWF...I think it is safe to say we have a pretty good consensuses now. NJ.

[HurrMark]

Pending the 00Z ECMWF...I think it is safe to say we have a pretty good consensuses now. NJ.

Question is...why is the NHC still calling for a DE landfall...I can't find anymore credible models that are keeping it below Jersey except the GFDL (which isn't exactly that useful for this type of storm). They must have some explanation we don't know...