ATL: SANDY - Models

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#21 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 20, 2012 11:47 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 0ZGFS has shifted about 350 miles farther west into the central Bahamas at 126 while the 18ZGFS at 132 had it east of the southeastern Bahamas, I certainly hope this is not a trend, because if it is Florida might have to keep a real close eye on this


Trending towards canadian model perhaps..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#22 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:26 am

00z canadian brushes sfl..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#23 Postby boca » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:45 am

I see a west trend starting to develop Im surprised that no one is on here.Most people have moved out of hurricane season including me but the model trends are getting interesting to me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#24 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Sun Oct 21, 2012 1:48 am

00z GFS from yesterday had shifted west as well, then went back east in the 06z.

00z Euro seems to split lows after crossing Cuba, with the dominant one being the east one.

00z GFDL also shifted westward.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#25 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:02 am

UKMET is one of the most conservative models,but look how strong it has the system at the 00z run.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#26 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:28 am

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12z TVCN has shifted west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#27 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:31 am

00z GFDL minimal to strong cane right of south florida coast line.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#28 Postby Frank2 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:43 am

Any pro met opinions on this trending towards the west, a bit confusing because the WV shows a very clear demarcation that should keep Florida in the clear...
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#29 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Oct 21, 2012 9:48 am

The trend has been west no doubt.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#30 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:03 am

I hope it stays east of me with a little wind whip. Just to say I'll be back next year. Maybe it will drag a nice front through next weekend like Wilma did. Almost the same timing. :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#31 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:03 am

Frank2 wrote:Any pro met opinions on this trending towards the west, a bit confusing because the WV shows a very clear demarcation that should keep Florida in the clear...


Ridge aloft will stay in tact through mid-week... Its going to be a close.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#32 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:10 am

It all depends how far west it goes Frank. The High is already moving off the coast. I see the High clouds moving in from the Atlantic. The trough won't be here till mid to latter part of the week and will get stronger. That will turn possibly Sandy to the north and NE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#33 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:10 am

12z similar to 06z with hurricane of sfl coastline.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#34 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 11:25 am

Watch out SC/NC. The west trend continues on this 12z GFS run.

156 hours.

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168 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#35 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:31 pm

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
12z GFS

What a crazy run, at least 3 times 99L tried to push west towards the CONUS and then get kicked ENE. I have a feeling 99L is going to be a crazy October track with many surprises.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#36 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:37 pm

12z CMC a little bit more east at 12z compared with 00z.

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#37 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:38 pm

It might actually briefly make landfall on the Delmarva Peninsula in that run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#38 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:57 pm

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#39 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 1:01 pm

What impact could that upper Great Lakes low have on the system?

To me this looks like a storm going straight up at 75W with nothing to stop it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#40 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 21, 2012 1:09 pm

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12z Dynamic Models
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