ATL: SANDY - Models

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 1:49 pm

12z ECMWF shifts west.

144 hours.

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#42 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:06 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#43 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:12z ECMWF shifts west.

144 hours.

http://oi47.tinypic.com/358811i.jpg



Westward shift continues luis..Interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#44 Postby jinftl » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:26 pm

One thing we are seeing...and whether this is a problem for the U.S. or not....more model consensus right now that we will have yet another hurricane to track later this week (64 kts = 74 mph)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:34 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#46 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:41 pm

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#47 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 4:09 pm

While model guidance keeps this east of Florida, it's the westward trend the ECMWF is showing plus the temporary nw turn the models are generally showing once the system is north of Cuba that is a bit worrisome for those in South Florida. Water temps are plenty warm enough in the Florida Straits and Bahamas to support a significant system providing the upper-level conditions are favorable. It won't take much of another westward shift by the ECMWF to put South Florida in the cross-hairs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 5:26 pm

18z shifts a little bit to the east.

144 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#49 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:43 pm

[quote="cycloneye"]18z shifts a little bit to the east.

Well, not to get too lengthy here, but have just been taking a long hard look at the EURO's long range 500mb from last Thursday up until today. Then compared the present GFS and EURO forecasts which are close, with exception to the latest 12z EURO run showing a westward shift. Bottom line, it seems appearant to me that the EURO has had a pretty good over all handle on the synoptic set up with exception to the fact that 99L was expected to be caught by the East Coast trough which at this point might only seem likely to influence motion perhaps up to tomorrow night. At such a point the W. Atlantic trough starts lifting and moving east. The only other interesting note is that the EURO did not anticipate the East Conus ridge building as strongly as it is now appearing to be. The GFS meanwhile seems slightly faster with 99L's development, and furthermore appears that the heights are too low, both off the Eastern U.S. seaboard and furthermore with the eventual trough moving east in about 5 to 7 days. Bottom line, if 99L in fact develops and does not begin a forward motion until perhaps Tuesday a.m. or later, than by late tomm., we might start to see a significant westward shift of the GFS and other dynamic models. I am beginning to think that the risk to S. Florida may be becoming greater.
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#50 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:13 pm

18Z HWRF has shifted east also:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#51 Postby SFLcane » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:21 pm

eastward shift also with gfdl..

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#52 Postby ROCK » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:34 pm

one thing is for sure models like it to blow up after Cuba....might be our big major....
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#53 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:35 pm

Okay, so the models have been shifting west in the morning and east in the evening. Find the midpoint, there's your most likely track...unless one of the shifts takes over.
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#54 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:49 pm

Given the huge size, it will take quite a low pressure to be a major most likely - 950mb would still only be a Cat 1 or 2 I would think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#55 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:59 pm

The 12ZGFS would be catastrophic for the NE US if it were to verify and that would be if it is a full phaser with the trough, but the 18ZGFS took down the intensity to something I think is more likely to verify, but you can't discout the stronger full phase scenerio with the 12ZEuro and 12ZGGEM showing it but I would put the chances of that happening at 5 to 10%
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#56 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:16 pm

The east shift is misleading as those 18Z runs do not incorporate new upper-air data as the 00Z and 12Z runs (which continue to show a westward shift) do. I would await a real east trend in the 00Z and 12Z runs--for several cycles--before casting judgment.
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#57 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:19 pm

Would data from the NOAA Gulfstream help out in this situation, since this would be a phasing hybrid and not a pure tropical cyclone?
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#58 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:23 pm

Absolutely, as far as potential track goes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#59 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 10:46 pm

when their flying NOAA Gulfstream?
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#60 Postby MWatkins » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:45 am

0Z GFS takes a messy-looking system east of FL by the end of the week. This could end up being a large, odd looking gyre that never really consolidates into anything significant.

The overall structure of this system is going to be a huge determinant in how it tracks and what it does. My initial thought is it will remain broad and fairly disorganized and will take until it hits the westerlies, then it will come together some. That's just the way this season has gone.

The hope is this comes together east of the FL peninsula and not west of it.

MW
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