ATL: SANDY - Models

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#461 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:52 pm

Lot bigger on the Labrador Blocking Ridge for today's 12Z Euro vs yesterday's; accounting for the sharp turn into Delmarva

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A5_hKOuCYAA0yQ_.png:large

Could be a little over doing it IMHO.

Need to watch tomorrow if feature persists.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#462 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:57 pm

From NWS Miami facebook...https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.Miami.gov

A critical factor in the eventual winds over South Florida in association with Sandy will be how large the system will be when it is east of South Florida on Friday. The image below is from the GFS model (NWS global model) and it depicts th...e pressure and wind field for Friday afternoon at 2 PM.

Keep in mind that this is only a model forecast and NOT the official NHC forecast, but it gives an idea of the type of data forecasters use in determining the extent of the wind field around a tropical system. The orange lines are the isobars, or lines of equal atmospheric pressure, and the colors are surface sustained wind speeds ranging from 25 mph or less in blue (over most of Florida) to 30-35 mph near the east coast in gray, to tropical storm force (greater than 39 mph) in green and yellow. This suggests that sustained tropical storm force will likely impact the Atlantic waters and at least come close to the SE Florida coast. Wind gusts are not accounted for on this graphic and will likely be quite a bit higher than the values below. Stay tuned for continued updates over the next few days:

Image
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#463 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:02 pm

I say Joe redeemed himself

:cheesy:

http://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#464 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:08 pm

Interesting, not to mention the massive amount of snow in the Appalachians, this could suck a ton of Lake Michigan lake-effect snow across MI, IN, and OH.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=
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Re: Re:

#465 Postby anarchiver19 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:18 pm

stephen23 wrote:
MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z ECMWF 120hr shows a powerful, 934-mb extratropical low making landfall on southern Maryland, just northeast of Virginia Beach, VA:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical850mbVortSLP120.gif



Also showing 100kt 850mb winds on coast correct?


If this model holds true are we in Virginia Beach in for something akin to "Nor'Ida" in 2009? That was truly a mess here and lasted for 2 days if I remember correctly and caused much more damage than Irene last year.
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Re:

#466 Postby OuterBanker » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:22 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Does it hit the Carolina coast first?


No, and it isn't expected to. Problem is that it will be a hybrid or extra tropical which means it will be west weighted. Euro has consistently shown hurricane (or storm) force winds in eastern NC. Fetch from the cold front and lunar cycle (full moon) will add to the effects. Then there is the prolonged winds from an expanding, transitioning, storm as it approaches from the south. This could prove to be far more destructive than a hurricane which generally gets in and out in a hurry.
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#467 Postby JC380 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:28 pm

So, what are the factors that'll prevent Sandy from taking a curve towards the US?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#468 Postby bzukajo » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:29 pm

Not a newbie, but no expert either. If I remember correctly, the models did this east vs west shift back and forth quite regularly with Irene. Should we expect the same here?
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MiamiensisWx

#469 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:32 pm

18Z models shift west again:

18Z

06Z
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#470 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:39 pm

Through 24 hours, the 18Z GFS is slightly east VS the 12Z.
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#471 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:45 pm

A tad east at 42 hrs too...
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#472 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:48 pm

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-p ... M&hour=054

Weaker and east through 54, but wind gusts still up to 60 mph along the Florida coast.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#473 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:48 pm

Does the 18z have any new data? I thought the 0z and 12z were the two models that have new data incorperated.
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#474 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:49 pm

By 60 hours, 18z is getting closer to 12z run - was well east earlier.
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#475 Postby x-y-no » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:52 pm

18z GFS: 66 hour position is almost identical to 72 hours in the 12z run.

Image
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Re:

#476 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:54 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:18Z models shift west again:

18Z

06Z


Nothing to drastic there...
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#477 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:59 pm

Still slightly east at 84 hrs...also not as deep (967 mb vs 962 mb at 12Z)
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#478 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:05 pm

The 18z GFS assumes a NNE movement for the next 18 hours. Sandy has barely made any eastward progress today, is heading North now, and isn't forecast to move back NNE until after the Bahamas. Let's see what the other models do.
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Re:

#479 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:09 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:The 18z GFS assumes a NNE movement for the next 18 hours. Sandy has barely made any eastward progress today, is heading North now, and isn't forecast to move back NNE until after the Bahamas. Let's see what the other models do.


The 18z runs of the models always seem to trend east . Not sure why this is just an observation.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#480 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:13 pm

Much further east...let's see if it still makes the connection.
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