ATL: SANDY - Models

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HurrMark
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#481 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:26 pm

Looks like it does do a double back, but landfall is maritime Canada. There is some Fujiwara with a couple of small lows in the interior Northeast.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#482 Postby weatherwindow » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:44 pm

I rarely comment on stupidity...but given the potential disaster facing the Northeast, I feel compelled....the on camera talking head makes this statement...."after paralleling the Mid Atlantic coast, Sandy may turn back toward the Northeast, but by that time, it will only be a WEAK DEPRESSION".....ugggh
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#483 Postby JamesCaneTracker » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:49 pm

weatherwindow wrote:I rarely comment on stupidity...but given the potential disaster facing the Northeast, I feel compelled....the on camera talking head makes this statement...."after paralleling the Mid Atlantic coast, Sandy may turn back toward the Northeast, but by that time, it will only be a WEAK DEPRESSION".....ugggh


Nothing in these Forecast models indicate it will be weak Depression... It MAY not be full tropical any more but it still has the potential to be just as Destructive as a Fully Tropical Hurricane. Maybe even more so giving the location it could be impacting!
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#484 Postby Blown Away » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:54 pm

deltadog03 wrote:Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.


How far off compared to the forecast track? Can you post a graphic?
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Re: Re:

#485 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:04 pm

Blown Away wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Our RPM model, from WSI, has Sandy just offshore really lashing the coast.


How far off compared to the forecast track? Can you post a graphic?


I wish I could, but not sure if I am allowed too. I will say the new run is a bit further off the coast, but that first run I had seen today was like a EURO type track.
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#486 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:19 pm

The first 36 hours of the 18z GFS don't concur with the NHC track.
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Re:

#487 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:26 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:The first 36 hours of the 18z GFS don't concur with the NHC track.


I would take the 18Z with a grain of salt as it is intermediate...we will see what the 00Z says and if a trend eastward perhaps may be starting.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#488 Postby Steve H. » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:16 pm

so the 18z gfs is now east of the 12z?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#489 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:18 pm

Steve H. wrote:so the 18z gfs is now east of the 12z?


Yeah...the GFS at least is...it misses the connection with the trough...it eventually doubles back to the west but far to the northeast by that point, and it is a typical wintertime low for the Canadian Maritimes at that point.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#490 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 24, 2012 8:57 pm

pretty substantial shift i'd say with some of the 00z models. Image
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#491 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:07 pm

SFLcane wrote:pretty substantial shift i'd say with some of the 00z models. if this pans out or continues strong TS winds could stay over the water and away from florida.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_18



Sflcane, What 00z models have already come out, and where can I find the 00z models?
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#492 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:10 pm

I think the 00z tropical models (GFS based ones) generate somewhat from the 18z GFS op run...I think* and honestly, I wouldn't even put any weight into the tropical models right now. yes to the GFDL and HWRF, but the others...meh
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#493 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:10 pm

The BAM models would really be out of their realm here dealing with the westerlies.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#494 Postby stephen23 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:14 pm

Ok. Sounds good. Is it true the 18z gfs contains no new data and that only the 00z and 12z contain new data?
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#495 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:15 pm

^^ Nothing changed here really.All the "real" models still meet near Long Island Bahamas in 48-54 hrs...right on target..
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Re:

#496 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:17 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:^^ Nothing changed here really.All the "real" models still meet near Long Island Bahamas in 48-54 hrs...right on target..


Yup and then they all turn NNW in the general direction of Great Abaco/Grand Bahama
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#497 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:19 pm

FWIW (probably not much) the 0Z Nam takes Sandy awfully close to Miami. Pretty much right offshore Key Largo/Homestead at 36 hrs.
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Re:

#498 Postby SootyTern » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:22 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:FWIW (probably not much) the 0Z Nam takes Sandy awfully close to Miami. Pretty much right offshore Key Largo/Homestead at 36 hrs.


Oh, hooray! But it's just the NAM
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#499 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:22 pm

Thursday will be a very important day in the models world. This from Dr Jeff Masters.

An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.
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#500 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:23 pm

LOL...the NAM drives this WEST towards Miami from hour 30-36...
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