ATL: SANDY - Models

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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#501 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:28 pm

Oh this is a good run by the NAM, diving SW into Cuba at 42 hrs. :roll:

Looks like an anticyclonic loop, now heading NE and away from Florida at 51 hrs.
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#502 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:38 pm

A tweet said they were an early run and should be pretty much disregarded (the 00Z models).

https://twitter.com/BobRyanABC7/status/ ... 0148983809
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#503 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:52 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Oh this is a good run by the NAM, diving SW into Cuba at 42 hrs. :roll:

Looks like an anticyclonic loop, now heading NE and away from Florida at 51 hrs.


Would you have a link to that NAM run, thanks.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#504 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:53 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Oh this is a good run by the NAM, diving SW into Cuba at 42 hrs. :roll:

Looks like an anticyclonic loop, now heading NE and away from Florida at 51 hrs.


Would you have a link to that NAM run, thanks.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#505 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Wed Oct 24, 2012 9:58 pm

Thank you for the link,

Strange run almost like it was decoupling or going extropical.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#506 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:37 pm

0Z GFS right in line with 18Z through 24 hours. Wind field might be a bit smaller.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#507 Postby Bocadude85 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:50 pm

Does not appear South Florida will have very many impacts from Sandy according to the 0z GFS
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#508 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:00 pm

Through 90 hours, the 00Z and 12Z are nearly identical...perhaps the 00Z is a few ticks east of 12Z. Pressure is 4mb higher at 00Z. Let's see what happens because here it becomes critical...synoptically, the midwest trough is slightly deeper at 00Z but the north Atlantic low isn't nosing as far as it did at 12Z.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#509 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:09 pm

108-132 hours...00Z is definitely to the east...not as much as 18Z but about a degree or so. There is definitely a negative tilt to the trough, though. It looks like there is a start of a hook back at 132...roughly at the latitude of Massachusetts.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#510 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:19 pm

0Z NOGAPS out 72Hrs.....close to FL then heading up the EC...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#511 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:20 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical


up into Long Island and NYC.....bam!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#512 Postby ROCK » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:22 pm

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#513 Postby HurrMark » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:24 pm

Looks like a landfall in New Brunswick late on the 31st and then enters northern Maine the next day...downeast Maine/Bay of Fundy area would have a really bad time...but most of the East Coast would be spared the worst.

So all in all...the 00Z did go back west from 18Z, but not as far as 12Z...and for US concerns, that could play a big role. So much for a trend for consensus...

And this model does not initiate 'Sandy' well in terms of intensity. At this point, the model indicates 989 mb...a few dozen off.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#514 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:11 am

HWRF shifts to the west. Hits Andros Island and then Grand Bahama

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/hwrf/00zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest024.gif
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#515 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:54 am

Euro running
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#516 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:04 am

Euro 48hr little more west. Closer to florida
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#517 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:26 am

Euro looks like landfall around D.C./ Nyc 953mb in around 110 hrs.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#518 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:31 am

The model looks like it initiated 30mb high. What will the 30mb lower do to track?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#519 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:38 am

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif


dude that is nasty and NYC is going to be toast if this verifies


add disclaimer here...
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#520 Postby ROCK » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:40 am

940MB is crazy at 96hr.....then the left hook into long island and NYC....at 120

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP096.gif


perfect storm? more like storm of the century!!!
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