ATL: SANDY - Models

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#561 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:14 pm

Dr. Greg Forbes

"Forecasts for Hurricane Sandy continue to be scary and getting more consistently so. Monitor forecasts, emergency manager statements"

http://twitter.com/DrGregForbes
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#562 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:16 pm

Image
GFS: 06z vs 12z
Significant SW shift.
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#563 Postby nashrobertsx » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:33 pm

I am having problems accessing the NCEP website. Is it overloaed or something? Anyone else having problems?
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#564 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:47 pm

euro is running.
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#565 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:05 pm

Is that hurricane force winds up Florida east caost dipected on Euro? How does 70kt 850mb winds translated to surface?
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Re:

#566 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:06 pm

stephen23 wrote:Is that hurricane force winds up Florida east caost dipected on Euro? How does 70kt 850mb winds translated to surface?


about 55kts.
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Re: Re:

#567 Postby jhpigott » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Is that hurricane force winds up Florida east caost dipected on Euro? How does 70kt 850mb winds translated to surface?


about 55kts.


Any west or east shifts in the Euro as Sandy approaches FL/NW Bahamas?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#568 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:09 pm

70 knots, with two little patches of 80 knot winds. Of course, this is at the 850 mb level.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=048

Compared to yesterday's 12Z run, Euro might be a tad west and slower. Winds are a bit higher for the Florida east coast too.
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#569 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:12 pm

Created a GIF to compare yesterday's 12Z and today's run at 12Z Saturday:

http://makeagif.com/i/P3jJ4A
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#570 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:17 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:70 knots, with two little patches of 80 knot winds. Of course, this is at the 850 mb level.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=048

Compared to yesterday's 12Z run, Euro might be a tad west and slower. Winds are a bit higher for the Florida east coast too.


yeah it is... it does a complete loop. its moving very slow from tomorrow into saturday.
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Re:

#571 Postby Bocadude85 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:20 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Created a GIF to compare yesterday's 12Z and today's run at 12Z Saturday:

http://makeagif.com/i/P3jJ4A


Much stronger winds for SE Fla on todays 12z run of the Euro
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#572 Postby stephen23 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:20 pm

Oh wow. Look at the size and 932mb heading toward NYC area.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#573 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:25 pm

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#574 Postby RVAHudson » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:25 pm

Hey guys... I've been lurking here for a while, but a quick question... Am I seeing this correctly that this latest euro run has Sandy coming in farther south, along the Chesapeake Bay, 96-120 hours out, or am I looking at this completely wrong? :double:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=120
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#575 Postby sicktght311 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:26 pm

Wow thats some left hook at 120h. Seems almost TOO exaggerated
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#576 Postby MWatkins » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:44 pm

RVAHudson wrote:Hey guys... I've been lurking here for a while, but a quick question... Am I seeing this correctly that this latest euro run has Sandy coming in farther south, along the Chesapeake Bay, 96-120 hours out, or am I looking at this completely wrong? :double:

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=120


You are seeing that correctly.

This isn't the usual steering deal. Usually we're used to see systems pushed west by building high pressure to the north.

This time, Sandy will be "pulled" westward by the flow around the negatively-tilted trough over the upper midwest, it's acting like a magnet.

Moreover, the Sandy will have a lot of energy injected into it from that weather system. That baroclinic forcing will make this much larger than a normal tropical system. Winds will be very strong well north of the center. Could be historic.

This isn't without precedent, this has happened a lot of times over the years. It just hasn't happened since the internet has been around, so this a new experience for a lot of weather people.

MW
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#577 Postby xironman » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:45 pm

sicktght311 wrote:Wow thats some left hook at 120h. Seems almost TOO exaggerated


The model may not have the correct depiction, but if you look at 500mb with the shape of the trough and the block to the NE the storm has no were to go except WNW.

Image
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#578 Postby MWatkins » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:52 pm

In this case (noting the graphic just posted) there will be a strong high well to the north, the flow between that ridge and the inverted trough will create a super-highway in the steering layer, so to speak...and Sandy will be sling-shotted into the US coast.

Interesting the 0Z GFS from overnight missed the connection, but all of the other models since then have not.

MW
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#579 Postby sicktght311 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:52 pm

xironman wrote:
sicktght311 wrote:Wow thats some left hook at 120h. Seems almost TOO exaggerated


The model may not have the correct depiction, but if you look at 500mb with the shape of the trough and the block to the NE the storm has no were to go except WNW.

Image


Absolutely. Theres no doubt that with the setup in place the storm will be drawn westward, i just think the 12Z Euro pulls it a little too drastically west. Not to further doomsday NY/NJ scenarios, but with the forward speed they're talking i just see it hooking left and doing more of a NW hook before it heads more WNW and impacting further north. Chesapeake just seems to drastically right angled for that huge and powerful of a storm
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#580 Postby GCANE » Thu Oct 25, 2012 1:53 pm

Well defined warm-core with Sandy prior to landfall at +96 hrs, cold air builds over land.

http://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/2615 ... to/1/large
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