ATL: SANDY - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#61 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:22 am

Image
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... _loop.html

00z Euro has 99L turn left towards SFL then get kicked ENE, then get bumped into the mid Atlantic.
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#62 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:25 am

It also has the system making landfall over the Delmarva and pushing NW over Pennsylvania into SWern NY. Frame before landfall, pressure was 954, next frame with the system well inland is 966.
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#63 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:16 am

That means I would be on the right side of the storm...
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#64 Postby Caribwxgirl » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:27 am

Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?
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Re:

#65 Postby artist » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:41 am

Caribwxgirl wrote:Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

here is the link for you to the latest, Caribwxgirl. Hope this thing isn't too severe fro you all there.
Click on storm 99 on the tab -
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots
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Re:

#66 Postby x-y-no » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:43 am

Caribwxgirl wrote:Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?


Here's the latest spaghetti model plot:

Image

Since this thing is looking very likely to develop soon, I think Jamaica and eastern Cuba need to be thinking in terms of a possibly fairly strong tropical storm.
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Re: Re:

#67 Postby Caribwxgirl » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:50 am

artist wrote:
Caribwxgirl wrote:Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?

here is the link for you to the latest, Caribwxgirl. Hope this thing isn't too severe fro you all there.
Click on storm 99 on the tab -
http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal ... el%20plots


x-y-no wrote:
Caribwxgirl wrote:Does anyone have any shorter range model images or spaghetti model? Since this seems by all indication to be heading my way I'm not too interested in seeing the possibilities for next week. Anyone please?


Here's the latest spaghetti model plot:

http://i.imgur.com/7skMl.gif



Since this thing is looking very likely to develop soon, I think Jamaica and eastern Cuba need to be thinking in terms of a possibly fairly strong tropical storm.



Thanks so much guys. Artist I hope so I really hope so.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#68 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 7:57 am

Looking better for FL - probably won't reach the US at all, but time will tell...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#69 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 8:49 am

Image
00z Nogaps, Miami on the west eyewall. :lol:
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Re:

#70 Postby TCmet » Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:26 am

CrazyC83 wrote:That means I would be on the right side of the storm...


You along with about 100 million other people. ;)

But really, what has me worried is the relative consistency of the models this far out. On another forum I saw a met that said the Euro and GFS have a 0.81 correlation right now, relatively high for 192 hours out.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#71 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:58 am

12z GFS has shifted a little west closer to SFL and stronger than 06Z.
Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#72 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 22, 2012 10:59 am

12z GFS rolling. It's 96 hour position is west of it's (time adjusted) position in the three previous runs.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal096.gif
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#73 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:08 am

The 12zGFS at 114hrs looks like its starting to phase with the trough, the amount of phasing will determine the track and potential intensity or god forbid a landfall in the mid atlantic or NEUS, Im going with out to sea with this but am a little leary of the model concensus
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#74 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:48 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
00z Nogaps, Miami on the west eyewall. :lol:


12Nogaps remains consistant with a close brush with S. Florida.

Just looked at the 12Z GFS and did see the westward shift. On one hand I have to agree that I believe it has been the most consistant global model this year. That said however, I am curious if it is over-amplifying the troughs and underestimating the high pressure regions. It continues to be the fasted of all the global models (GFS, EURO, CMC, NOGAPS) and has the storm on the Cuban coast at 60 hours. Conversely, the other models are all slower. Again, not knowing which will be the more accurate, at minimum though I would guess that the longer TD 18 remains in the Caribbean - then the more likely that a more northerly (or even NNW) motion might be impacted upon it at some point.

Would be curious to see where the UK plays in here. Will be especially curious to see if the EURO 12Z run begins to imply a more northward initial motion (rather than NE)
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#75 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:12 pm

12z CMC is west of the previous run. Not a substantial shift, but a shift nonetheless. Shows a stronger ridge and weaker trough than 00z run:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#76 Postby storm4u » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:23 pm

12z ggem would be devastating up here
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#77 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:27 pm

The GGEM is probably too robust with the pressure, 970 would probably be more likely not 944, but its not budging from its last few runs, If the Euro shows the same thing like it has the last couple of days then we have to say the GFS is a far right outlier as of now and may shift back to the west bend in later runs
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#78 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:58 pm

Bad News: Latest CMC is absolutely nuts, 939mb just off NC coast and heading nw. Complete devastation of the mid Atlantic (and the OBX it appears, heads wsw after landfall).

Good news: It’s the CMC. Which is always overdramatic, and never right.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#79 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:11 pm

12Z Euro is running... 48 hours:

Image

Slowly intensifying the storm with a big ridge to the North.
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#80 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:12 pm

At 72 hours it is continuing off to the NNE:

Image
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