ATL: SANDY - Models

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brunota2003
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#721 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:09 pm

HurrMark wrote:
brunota2003 wrote:Pending the 00Z ECMWF...I think it is safe to say we have a pretty good consensuses now. NJ.


Question is...why is the NHC still calling for a DE landfall...I can't find anymore credible models that are keeping it below Jersey except the GFDL (which isn't exactly that useful for this type of storm). They must have some explanation we don't know...

I think they are inching it northward, they don't want to be drastic.
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#722 Postby FutureEM » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:49 pm

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#723 Postby stephen23 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:58 am

Euro rolling
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#724 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:07 am

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#725 Postby stephen23 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:10 am

Rock, Euro looking about the same. Started run with pressure and winds very close to real time. Only at 48 hours and 103kt 850mb winds. Im wondering what the models are seeing because for past few days wind speeds have went down on models and this run it has really jumped back up like 4 days ago
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#726 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:45 am

EURO 942MB.....not as low as the 930MB that we have been seeing...little further north now coming in line with the GFS....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#727 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:46 am

Also EURO suggesting Monday or Monday night landfall......I hope the word gets out....
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#728 Postby Listeri69 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:56 am

Anyone got a link for the 06z GFS model ?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#729 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:27 am

GFS showing a much deeper asymmetrical warm-core than yesterday

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#730 Postby HurrMark » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:41 am

ROCK wrote:EURO 942MB.....not as low as the 930MB that we have been seeing...little further north now coming in line with the GFS....


http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif


The 12Z had it at 947 mb at landfall...the 00Z shows 942 mb. It also seemed to go back to a Delmarva rather than N. J. solution, so actually it has shifted south.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#731 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:43 am

GCANE wrote:GFS showing a much deeper asymmetrical warm-core than yesterday

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png

So what would that mean overall in terms of how Sandy evolves and wind mixing down effectiveness?

Since the models have held firm, my mind is now set on being blown. Its now at that level where you are thinking about it 24 hours day. I imagine starting tonight it will be in my dreams next.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#732 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:58 am

Cyclenall wrote:
GCANE wrote:GFS showing a much deeper asymmetrical warm-core than yesterday

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png

So what would that mean overall in terms of how Sandy evolves and wind mixing down effectiveness?

Since the models have held firm, my mind is now set on being blown. Its now at that level where you are thinking about it 24 hours day. I imagine starting tonight it will be in my dreams next.



Should be a much wider & stronger wind field.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#733 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:01 am

Strong front, with sharp height drops and strong vorticity, could generate some severe weather along the GOM coast Nov 1.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#734 Postby ROCK » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:40 am

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#735 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:10 am

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#736 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:38 am

Am I interpreting these recent model (Euro, Nogaps, GFS) links you all have posted that Sandy is now expected more like NYC than southern NJ, DelMarVa?

I don't understand why the NHC track we always see continues to show the track so south? It even looks more south than it did early this morning when it was central NJ?

What am I missing here? I fully understand it's not the line but the cone and even beyond, but there seems to be such a disconnect and I think it's confusing people.

Thank you.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST SEE OFFIAL SITES FOR SUCH
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#737 Postby storm4u » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:45 am

12z nogaps /ggem is scary for us in southern newengland
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#738 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:50 am

WeatherLovingDoc wrote:Am I interpreting these recent model (Euro, Nogaps, GFS) links you all have posted that Sandy is now expected more like NYC than southern NJ, DelMarVa?

I don't understand why the NHC track we always see continues to show the track so south? It even looks more south than it did early this morning when it was central NJ?

What am I missing here? I fully understand it's not the line but the cone and even beyond, but there seems to be such a disconnect and I think it's confusing people.

Thank you.

THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST SEE OFFIAL SITES FOR SUCH


The NHC forecast track isn't south of the guidance. you're being fooled by the straight line between forecast points. The actual track bends further north and then west between the 48 hour and 72 hour points.

there's a reason they always say (over and over again) "Don't focus on the line."
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#739 Postby WeatherLovingDoc » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:00 pm

Thank you x-y-no. I did read Dr. Wxman's same point on the discussion thread about the 48 to 72 hour period. I'll just keep preparing and watching you Pro's and experts. I'm sure you'll update us as soon as more is known. Thanks again to you all.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#740 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 27, 2012 12:13 pm

Latest Model landfalls. 0z Euro, 12Z GFS

Image

Image

Model pages

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
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