ATL: SANDY - Models

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nashrobertsx
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#761 Postby nashrobertsx » Sat Oct 27, 2012 8:48 pm

thanks, what thread is posting things like slosh models, wind forecast models, all the good stuff they issue when the storm gets close.. i dont think they have even posted anytihng yet. no local NWS office north of wilmington has even issued local hurricane statements yet... I guess I am getting antsy for a bunch of stuff I dont see out there
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#762 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:03 pm

Here's an animation from Weatherbell. I think it's the NAM, so I don't know if it's worth watching... I know how NAM is discounted and not considered reliable in this context. But the deepening it shows is pretty striking and worrying.

Image

The commenter who posted this at Wunderground added this brief note:

4km WRF ARW-core: watch eye wobble & storm tightens hours 36-48
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Re:

#763 Postby karenfromheaven » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:45 pm

nashrobertsx wrote:thanks, what thread is posting things like slosh models, wind forecast models, all the good stuff they issue when the storm gets close.. i dont think they have even posted anytihng yet. no local NWS office north of wilmington has even issued local hurricane statements yet... I guess I am getting antsy for a bunch of stuff I dont see out there


The NHC site page for Sandy has a storm surge exceedance map that you can zoom down to street level. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031332.shtml?gm_esurge#contents You can see the water is predicted to pile up on the western end of Long Island. I'm not very familiar with the city there, but I've read the flood walls in that area are only like 5f above mean sea level, and the surge right there might overtop them. I think these are what kept Irene surge out of the subway system, but this surge could be higher. It used to be the NHC didn't publicize SLOSH runs until hurricane warnings were posted, but not they keep this cool exceedance map updated.

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#764 Postby KBBOCA » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:58 pm

Can't sleep. So I'm back to reading stuff about Sandy.

Just saw an animation of what looks to be the 00Z GFS at Wunderground. Showing 936mb?!? Can someone else confirm that? I'm not good with models.

Image

I should add that based on the caption to the picture, that's 51 hours out, at 03Z on Tuesday a.m.
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Re:

#765 Postby FutureEM » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:02 am

KBBOCA wrote:Can't sleep. So I'm back to reading stuff about Sandy.

Just saw an animation of what looks to be the 00Z GFS at Wunderground. Showing 936mb?!? Can someone else confirm that? I'm not good with models.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/A6Q-Z3PCMAATzmb.png:large

I should add that based on the caption to the picture, that's 51 hours out, at 03Z on Tuesday a.m.


Note that is at the 900mb level, not the surface.
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#766 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:13 am

Another post of the 00Z GFS. That loop is incredible. Is there any way this situation can get worse?

Image

link: http://tinyurl.com/9dhnvfy
Last edited by KBBOCA on Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#767 Postby KBBOCA » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:18 am

FutureEM wrote:
KBBOCA wrote:Can't sleep. So I'm back to reading stuff about Sandy.

Just saw an animation of what looks to be the 00Z GFS at Wunderground. Showing 936mb?!? Can someone else confirm that? I'm not good with models.


Note that is at the 900mb level, not the surface.


Thanks FutureEM. I missed that. I need to go back to bed and try to get some sleep.
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Re:

#768 Postby Hey Its Me » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:57 am

KBBOCA wrote:Another post of the 00Z GFS. That loop is incredible. Is there any way this situation can get worse?

link: http://tinyurl.com/9dhnvfy


Ditto with the above - try as best to disconnect overnight and get some sleep. Being fresh (or less sleep deprived when the time comes) is important!
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#769 Postby stephen23 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:02 am

Wow. 00z Euro looks stronger also. 48hr headed for NYC area 944mb 101kt 850mb winds right off the coast line
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#770 Postby ROCK » Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:00 am

EURO is insane....that cannot be right!!!
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Re:

#771 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:47 am

KBBOCA wrote:Can't sleep. So I'm back to reading stuff about Sandy.

Just saw an animation of what looks to be the 00Z GFS at Wunderground. Showing 936mb?!? Can someone else confirm that? I'm not good with models.

Image

I should add that based on the caption to the picture, that's 51 hours out, at 03Z on Tuesday a.m.

900mb isnt far from the surface when the storm's pressure is 936mb, 94kt winds at that level over Long Island and NYC is pretty scary...
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#772 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:57 am

12Z GFS almost looks a bit stronger and farther south--a bit closer to Assateague Island than to Atlantic City--than 00Z...is it close to 935 mb? May someone post a clear graphic (with the original source included) like that of KBBOCA?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#773 Postby Ken711 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 11:07 am

MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z GFS almost looks a bit stronger and farther south--a bit closer to Assateague Island than to Atlantic City--than 00Z...is it close to 935 mb? May someone post a clear graphic (with the original source included) like that of KBBOCA?


Does that track take it over DC?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#774 Postby HurrMark » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:55 pm

I see a *tiny* southward shift, but not that far south...maybe 15-20 miles.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#775 Postby HurrMark » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:13 pm

Where can I get the intermediate Euro model runs (30, 36, 42 hrs)?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#776 Postby stephen23 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:41 pm

Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#777 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:24 pm

12z Euro. No change on landfall in Central New Jersey but more strong from the 00z run.

Image
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#778 Postby sweetpea » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:33 pm

stephen23 wrote:Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds


What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? :double: That can't be right? Is it?
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#779 Postby stephen23 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:35 pm

That's at 850mb height level. I think it converts to around 90mph surface level but a pro met or someone with more experience would have to convert it more accurate for you.
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Models

#780 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 28, 2012 2:35 pm

sweetpea wrote:
stephen23 wrote:Wow. I hope the new Euro doesnt pan out. Its a lot stronger!!! Making the turn towards nyc with 121kt 850mb winds


What would that translate too? I converted the 121 knots to mph and it said 139 mph?????? :double: That can't be right? Is it?

No, that's correct. Its at the 850mb level though, so there would be a reduction involved in calculating surface winds. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but I'm sure someone on here knows.
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