ATL: SANDY - Models

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hurricanedude
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#81 Postby hurricanedude » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:13 pm

thats cat 4 intensity..would be a mess for sure...Im in the thick of it..wahoo..
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#82 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:15 pm

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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#83 Postby hurricanedude » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:17 pm

both of those look out to sea.....
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#84 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:19 pm

At 96 hours the Euro has it moving through the central Bahamas like the other 12Z models and starting to deepen:

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#85 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:24 pm

At 120 hours there is a more westerly component of motion and down to 971mb:

Image
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#86 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:27 pm

From 96 hrs to 120 hrs, TD18 moves NW about 100 miles off Central Florida.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
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Re: Re:

#87 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:28 pm

adam0983 wrote:Does anyone think that South Florida will be in the cone by 5pm?


Looking at the 12z Euro, the 120 hour position is about 250 west of the NHC position at 120 hours, so that tells me the NHC not to concerned with the Euro's west trend.
Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#88 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:42 pm

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#89 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:46 pm

Blown away. I think the NHC is just waiting for recon info, not that they aren't concerned about the Euro run.
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Re:

#90 Postby adam0983 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:56 pm

I am waiting to see what the new gfs at 5pm shows. Lets hope that tropical depression 18 will go out to sea.
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Re:

#91 Postby HurricaneBelle » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:57 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:ECMWF at 168hr @ 951mb.........

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... l&hour=168


Looks like it's headed out to sea, but then the Euro hooks it back at 216hr for a direct hit on Boston/SoMass/Rhode Island heading due north.
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Re: Re:

#92 Postby adam0983 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:58 pm

Storms this time of year usually get hooked out to sea because of cold fronts. Lets hope this happens.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#93 Postby Frank2 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:59 pm

It'd have to be a hybrid system by then if it moved towards New England - too cool up there for a viable hurricane...

So far it seems the NNE motion out to sea is the best scenario (Cuba is going to have a bad time with this, possibly)...

Frank
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#94 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:07 pm

The 12ZEuro is on drugs, there is not going to be a pressure of 926 heading for the NEUS, but the track I really can't discount though if this does indeed phase with the trough
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#95 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:16 pm

Image
12z Dynamic Models

:darrow: Euro pretty much alone with it's western movement into the NW Bahamas.
Image
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#96 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:17 pm

ECMWF 12z is further east with landfall in NE. It might be telling us that the GFS is not out to lunch so much.
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Models

#97 Postby Blown Away » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:27 pm

Image
Jamaica, Cuba, SE Bahamas, and out to sea looking probable! Maybe Bermuda! :D
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#98 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:30 pm

actually the 12z cmc does bend back towards the NW bahamas and gets awfully close to SE Fl. thought the spaghetti plots seem to differ then the animations. as it leaves the cuba it jogs a little more n to nnw before turning out.
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#99 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:33 pm

yeah the euro is a little on the scary side to say the least.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html
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Re:

#100 Postby adam0983 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:47 pm

Big shift east in the models. This is great news for florida.
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