ATL: TONY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: TONY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby HenkL » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:34 am

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al902012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201210201236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 90, 2012, DB, O, 2012102012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL902012
AL, 90, 2012102012, , BEST, 0, 199N, 493W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#2 Postby lester » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:36 am

Image

2. A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT
1000 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 8:56 am

The topic related to this area that was at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114008&p=2281225#p2281225
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#4 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:02 am

This one isn't much of a development or impact threat. It's heading out to sea into high shear and cooler water.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:32 am

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#6 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Oct 20, 2012 9:43 am

This will probably become at least a tropical depression before becoming absorbed in 5-6 days. It will be entering an area of lower wind shear and it has more model support at this time today than it did yesterday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#7 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 6:36 pm

Up to 30%

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:04 pm

8 PM Special Feature Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N48W TO A 1009 MB LOW AT 17N46W TO
13N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1536 UTC OSCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS
THE LOW CENTER WELL. A STRONG WIND FIELD WITH E TO NE WINDS IN
THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT...IS WELL N OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS
AREA CLOSELY MIRRORS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 40W-51W AND IS LIKELY ENHANCED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N50W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#9 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:43 pm

00z Best Track

AL, 90, 2012102100, , BEST, 0, 201N, 479W, 30, 1012, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:39 am

Stays at 30%

SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTERACTING
WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5 TO 10 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:30 am

12z Best Track

AL, 90, 2012102112, , BEST, 0, 192N, 497W, 25, 1012, DB

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest
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#12 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:16 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#13 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 12:43 pm

Remains at 30%.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#14 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:43 pm

I know all the attention is and has to be for 99L,but let's not forget this invest. IMO,it looks close to TD status.

Image
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#15 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 2:52 pm

The only part of the criteria of a tropical cyclone 90L does not currently met is persistent convection. However, if the shower and thunderstorm activity that it fired about two hours ago continues to persist, then I could see this attaining TD status at 11pm EDT. Not that the NHC will declare it..they'll come up with some excuse of why it doesn't deserve a name, like Patty.
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#16 Postby galaxy401 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:35 pm

40% now.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#17 Postby Florida1118 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:12 pm

Maybe it doesn't have a surface circulation? Not sure why they are holding back on it...
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#18 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:55 pm

The models seem to like this one too? Sandy and Teddy in the days ahead?
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Re:

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:The models seem to like this one too? Sandy and Teddy in the days ahead?


You mean't Tony.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion

#20 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:44 am

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR
A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.
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