ATL: SANDY - HPC Advisories

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ATL: SANDY - HPC Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
JAMAICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA



TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE
SYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
INCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT. REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA
SHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND
EASTERN CUBA. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. IN
FACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN
BY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDEX. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
FAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA. AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID
CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND
ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 13.5N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 13.7N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 14.3N 78.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 15.7N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 17.4N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 20.5N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA
96H 26/1200Z 24.5N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:41 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
EIGHTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD
DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH JAMAICA TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT IS
APPROACHING JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREA OF MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN AREAS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 18 - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2012 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM SANDY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HAITI HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST. SANDY IS
NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR
35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM
IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM
WATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS COULD BE
CONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO.

AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. HOWEVER...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT
NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST. THIS IS ONLY A
LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.5N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 13.6N 78.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 14.9N 78.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 16.4N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 18.2N 77.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 22.0N 76.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 26/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 74.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2012 6:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SANDY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA TONIGHT.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. SANDY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT
APPROACHES JAMAICA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2012 9:54 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...SANDY MOVING LITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 78.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST. SANDY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS EXPECTED BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT INTO SANDY AROUND 20Z...THE EARLIER
AMORPHOUS MASS OF CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS
BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IN ADDITION...INNER-CORE
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...
WITH OUTER BANDING FEATURES ALSO DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND IMPROVED IN ALL
QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT HAD BEEN
RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT
IS BASED ON A BLEND OF EARLIER SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF
42 KT AND 38 KT AROUND 20Z...AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN INNER-CORE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY. UPPER-AIR DATA AT
23/00Z INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF SANDY FROM
PUERTO RICO NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE NOT CHANGED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT
TERM...THAT LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IS LIKELY. BY 12-24 HOURS AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION TOWARD JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. BY DAYS 4 AND
5...HOWEVER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF TAKING SANDY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO
THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND
OTHER LESS RELIABLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TVCA AND TV15 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND
THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING THAT SANDY SHOULD REMAIN IN
AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT...MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT...OVER SSTS OF 29-30C...AND OVER
UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES GREATER THAN 70 UNITS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL
REFLECTS THIS WITH A 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW FORECASTS
SANDY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES
JAMAICA. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA AND CUBA...
COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 120 HOURS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD INDUCE
TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48
HOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ICON...IV15...IVCN
INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.7N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.6N 78.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.8N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.5N 77.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA
72H 26/0000Z 22.7N 75.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 27/0000Z 25.7N 75.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 28.2N 73.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 5:15 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS MOVING NORTHWARD
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 78.7W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH AND/OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED
FOR JAMAICA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST. SANDY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TODAY. A FASTER NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS FORECAST
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL BE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN
CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN JAMAICA BY
TONIGHT...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 5:15 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 78.6W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
JAMAICA...AND HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A NORTH TO NORTH-
NORTHEAST MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH
EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

BANDS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
BE VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DURING
THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT
SANDY STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5...AND THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM.

SANDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION BEGINNING TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY
WEAKENS. THE CENTER OF SANDY SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER
JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96 HOURS WITH
A TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THERE IS
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF ALONG THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE HWRF ALONG THE
EASTERN SIDE. THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE AND THE NHC FORECAST BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
AND THE FLORIDA STATE ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR...WARM WATERS...
AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING
SANDY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES
THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER SANDY CROSSES EASTERN CUBA...THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A DEEPENING CYCLONE...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES THE SYSTEM
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT SANDY COULD BE TRANSITIONING
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.3N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.1N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.6N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 17.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 19.6N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 26.8N 74.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 30.0N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:54 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.4N 77.9W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA COULD ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...AND
APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 16 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:55 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 77.8W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
JAMAICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE
INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE
WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS
993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HAITI
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. USING A BLEND OF
SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL
DEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTHWEST. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12
TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. THE INTERACTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA
SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS
THAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT
020/4. AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY
WEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IN AROUND 2-3
DAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY. THIS
IS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72
HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK
MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
PREDICTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.8N 77.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.9N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.9N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 18.9N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 21.4N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA
72H 26/1200Z 25.6N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 28.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 31.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 12:46 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HAITI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT APPROACHES JAMAICA ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS
MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 77.6W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT NEARS JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
CUBA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 4:04 pm

5 PM discussion came out very late.


TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. THE CENTER OF SANDY IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST FEATURE...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT
IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH
LAND INTERACTION BEING THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT. BY 72 HOURS...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30
KT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND
LGEM GUIDANCE. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS
SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM
BAROCLINIC SOURCES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POST-TROPICAL
STATUS AT DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
OR 020/5. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK FORECAST. AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHARP
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO WEST OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE
STORM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.3N 77.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.7N 77.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 17.9N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/1800Z 22.8N 76.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 26/1800Z 26.3N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 29.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 32.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 6:49 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...SANDY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 77.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BY THE TIME
IT NEARS JAMAICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SANDY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
CUBA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 23, 2012 9:50 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT SANDY IS STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 77.2W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF SANDY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA WEDNESDAY NIGHT OF THURSDAY
MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...
95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT NEARS JAMAICA AND CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42058 RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF
40 MPH...65 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA
EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER ON
WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF
HAITI ON WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN
CUBA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...AND
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW
THAT SANDY IS STRENGTHENING. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 50
KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB. BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO
REPORTED THAT A RAGGED EYE WAS FORMING.

SANDY IS NOW MOVING FASTER WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/9. THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD
FOR THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH AN
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR
AND SOME SPREAD THEREAFTER. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE CONSENSUS MODELS.

OVER THE CARIBBEAN...SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAKING SANDY A HURRICANE
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES JAMAICA AND CUBA. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
BECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA.
WHILE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG SHEAR OVER
SANDY...THEY ALL ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND AN INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE DUE TO BARCLINIC ENERGY FROM INTERACTION WITH THE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL LOSE
SOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROCESS. THAT BEING
SAID...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE ACTUALLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING A 60-KT
INTENSITY AFTER 36 HR AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120
HR. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE
INTENSITY AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.

THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.2N 77.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.7N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 19.0N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 21.7N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 24.3N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 27.0N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 30.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 33.0N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:20 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD
TOWARD JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65
MPH...105 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA AND CUBA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA THIS
MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HAITI BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 5:22 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES A LITTLE FASTER
TOWARD JAMAICA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. AND THE
UPPER KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTH AND WEST TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA UPPER KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO CRAIG KEY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE
TIME IT REACHES JAMAICA AND CUBA.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER. A NOAA BUOY LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF WIND 56 MPH...90 KM/H AND A
GUST OF 74 MPH...120 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB...29.12 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA THIS
MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HAITI BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY...WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...THE UPPER KEYS...AND FLORIDA
BAY BY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT
4 HOURS AGO INDICATED 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 MB. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED
THE CENTER OF SANDY AND NOAA BUOY 42058 RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST TO 64 KT MORE THAN 160 N MI
EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 60 KT.

SANDY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH NOW...OR 010/12 KT. THE
FORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH
48-72 HOURS. SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH A POTENT MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTH THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DIGGING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE
NORTH AND WEST AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE
CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15...AND THE
FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UP UNTIL SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ON
JAMAICA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH
JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING THAT TYPICALLY OCCURS UNDER SUCH
NEGATIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG
BAROCLINIC INTERACTION/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS
AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND
THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.9N 76.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR JAMAICA
24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND EASTERN CUBA
36H 25/1800Z 23.3N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 26/0600Z 25.7N 76.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 28.2N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.0N 73.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 33.4N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:57 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 76.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES JAMAICA AND CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH JAMAICA THIS
MORNING...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF HAITI BY THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN CUBA BY
THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BY EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...THE UPPER KEYS...AND FLORIDA BAY BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 7 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:12 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING IN JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 76.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE
EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS LIKELY BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE
AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN
JAMAICA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS
REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED A PEAK
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT...AND BLENDING THAT WITH THE PEAK
SFMR WINDS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO 973 MB BASED ON DATA FROM THE PLANE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
THE CYCLONE MOVES NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...
ADDITIONAL LAND INTERACTION WITH EASTERN CUBA AND STRUCTURAL
CHANGES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAKE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT
IN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION VIA LATENT HEAT
RELEASE...BUT THIS COULD BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...SHOWING SANDY BECOMING A
POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/11. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SANDY
SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SANDY INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE INTERACTION AND A TRACK
FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SANDY TURNING EAST AND MISSING
THE TROUGH. OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD
SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE
LEFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE
TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TRACK FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GIVEN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 19.1N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.9N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 24.4N 76.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 26.3N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 28.7N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 35.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:52 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 76.8W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO OCEAN
REEF
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THE GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER EASTERN JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING...AND MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE SANDY MOVES OVER JAMAICA OR EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 32 MPH...52 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH...82 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 982 MB...29.00
INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN CUBA BY
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA BY FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1
TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
COAST OF JAMAICA. A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. A
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 8 FT ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE BAHAMAS WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:22 pm

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
320 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 76.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST
OF JAMAICA NEAR KINGSTON AT APPROXIMATELY 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 MPH...
130 KM/H.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN
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