ATL: SANDY - HPC Advisories

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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 3:50 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...SANDY EMERGING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF JAMAICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES
OVER EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED AFTER SANDY
MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. KINGSTON JAMAICA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM JAMAICA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN
CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 3 TO 5 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF SANDY MADE LANDFALL OVER
SOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA AROUND 1900 UTC. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
DEGRADATION TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE LANDFALL...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT OBSERVATION OF
972 MB AT KINGSTON WITH 38 KT OF WIND. ASIDE FROM LAND
INTERACTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SANDY TO AT LEAST
MAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...WHERE SOME
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
CYCLONE INTENSIFYING OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SANDY
REGAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ONLY
A LITTLE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY IS MAINTAINED AS A STRONG
CYCLONE WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESSES
THROUGH DAY 5...WHEN POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS INDICATED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12...AS SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE FASTER IN THE SHORT TERM AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
ON DAY 2...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD
SPEED ARE SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER THAT TIME...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A LARGER UPPER-TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS
HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF
MORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS
CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND
LIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF
FLORIDA.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.3N 76.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
24H 25/1800Z 23.5N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 26/0600Z 25.8N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 27.3N 77.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 33.5N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 37.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...EYE OF SANDY NOW BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 76.4W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA OVERNIGHT...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...135 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES
EASTERN CUBA...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED AS SANDY MOVES
OVER EASTERN CUBA. RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER SANDY
MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING SANDY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN
CUBA THIS EVENING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...3 TO 5 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:03 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

...EYE OF SANDY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
...COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 76.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN
INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...
AND MAYAGUANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULS MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...EMERGE FROM THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA ON THURSDAY...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING
RAPIDLY...AND SANDY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL ON THE CUBAN COAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER
CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
JAMAICA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012

CUBAN RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 954 MB...
AND A 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS DEVELOPED. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE
ESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON
A BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...ARE
AT OR ABOVE 100 KT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SANDY IS LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/11. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
LOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO
FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. FROM 48-96 HR...A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
STEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE
BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING
THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART
DUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. THUS...THE
NEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS
TIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. HOWEVER...
IT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA. WHEN
THE CENTER EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SANDY TO
STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WIND
FIELD WILL SPREAD OUT AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
TROPICAL CHARACTER IN THE PROCESS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HR. THE FORECAST WILL
STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH
THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 21.6N 76.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 24.4N 76.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 26.3N 76.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 30.5N 74.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 33.5N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 37.0N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:35 am

HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
130 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY MAKES LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 125 AM EDT...0525 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 75.9W
ABOUT 5 MI...8 KM W OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG
WITH DATA FROM THE PILON CUBA WEATHER RADAR AND NOAA SATELLITES...
INDICATE HURRICANE SANDY MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
CUBA JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA AT APPROXIMATELY 125 AM EDT...
0525 UTC.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 110 MPH...
175 KM/H. THIS MAKES SANDY A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. REPORTS FROM SANTIAGO DE CUBA
INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 114
MPH...183 KM/H...HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:36 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
...WIND GUST TO 114 MPH REPORTED IN SANTIAGO DE CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 75.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NNW OF SANTIAGO DE CUBA
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM WNW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED BY NOAA SATELLITES AND CUBAN RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 20.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER
TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING...EMERGE FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA THIS AFTERNOON...
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS
THE CENTER CROSSES CUBA THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
140 MILES...220 KM. REPORTS FROM SANTIAGO DE CUBA INDICATE SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 114 MPH...183 KM/H...
HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PAST HOUR. ALSO...GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY SUBSIDING OVER JAMAICA.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#26 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:37 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY PREPARING TO MOVE OFF THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 75.8W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 40 MI...75 KM E OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST FROM FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY NOAA SATELLITES AND CUBAN RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18
MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA THIS
MORNING...MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TONIGHT...AND
MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING...AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATE TODAY AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NNNN

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

EARLIER THIS MORNING...SANDY MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE
CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. CUBAN RADAR DATA AND
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED
THAT SANDY HAD A WELL-DEFINED 20-24 N MI DIAMETER EYE WHEN IT MADE
LANDFALL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 117 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE ESTIMATES OF 91-92 KT. A
BLEND OF THESE DATA YIELDS A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 99 KT...JUST
BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE MAIN REASON WHY SANDY WAS HELD
JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WAS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED 68-KT
WIND AND GUST TO 99 KT THAT OCCURRED AROUND 0517Z. HOWEVER...
STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED LATER WHEN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVED ONSHORE...WHICH IS THE QUADRANT WHERE
THE 117-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS OBSERVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KT IS BASED ON WIND DECAY MODELS FOR HURRICANES OVER LAND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/16 KT. AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...SANDY APPEARS TO HAVE
RESUMED A NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND A SIMILAR DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ARE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY...
WHICH WILL INDUCE MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST
BETWEEN THOSE TWO SYSTEMS. THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SANDY TO
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 24-36 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS AN
APPROACHING DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE UNITED STATES BY 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SANDY TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPING SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND NOGAPS TAKING SANDY
NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 120
HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SANDY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM THE U.S. AND OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES.
GIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TURNED SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 120 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN...AND THE FSU TRACK MODEL.

OWING TO THE HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY OF SANDY...THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36
HOURS...AND THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY
FORECAST AS INCREASING SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH BAROCLINIC
INFLUENCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL HAVE ON
SANDY...AND ALSO WHAT THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF SANDY WILL BE AFTER
48 HOURS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NEAR THE CENTER THROUGH 120 HOURS...
WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLY AN INNER-CORE WARM STRUCTURE THAT WOULD KEEP SOME TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.
THE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY
120 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 20.9N 75.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 23.1N 75.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 25.4N 76.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 26.8N 76.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 28.1N 76.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 31.2N 73.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 34.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 37.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#27 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:00 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHEAST COAST OF CUBA AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 75.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM S OF GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM NE OF HOLGUIN CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.55 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H...AND A GUST OF 51 MPH...81 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 967 MB...
28.55 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND EASTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE
RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO
6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

JAMAICA...1 TO 3 FT
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...4 TO 7 FT
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:46 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 75.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM SSW OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR HAITI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN HAITI
TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 964
MB...28.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN CUBA AND JAMAICA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
IMPRESSIVE AFTER MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE EYE IS NO LONGER
APPARENT IN IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE
CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED ON THE WESTERN SIDE BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...
AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY
REMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF
126 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB. DATA FROM THE SFMR AND
DROPSONDES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ARE NOT
CURRENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THE TYPICAL RATIO...SO A
BLEND OF THE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND...AND SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE
CYCLONE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AFTER A BIT OF A JOG TO THE
RIGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE REASONING FOR THE SHORT-TERM
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. SANDY SHOULD MOVE
NORTHWARD TODAY AND SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON
FRIDAY WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SANDY SHOULD THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS
INTERACTION AND WHERE THE NORTHWEST TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND
GFDL MODELS SHOW A QUICKER TURN...BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND BY DAY
5. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE GRADUAL TURN
WITH THE CENTER STILL OFFSHORE AT 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT
IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF
THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 22.4N 75.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 24.4N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 26.2N 76.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 27.4N 76.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 39.5N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY MOVING BETWEEN LONG ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 75.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND MOVE NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 MPH...63 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER EASTERN CUBA THIS AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

WATER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE IN CUBA AND JAMAICA THIS
AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:39 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...SANDY NEAR CAT ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...WIND FIELD EXPANDING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 75.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MOVE
NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. CAT
ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 969 MB...
28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRUCTURAL CHANGES ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING WITH SANDY. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CUBA ARE
IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE
OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-
LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE STILL 109 KT AT THE END OF THE
LAST MISSION AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 963 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME DECREASE IN
THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
SANDY BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SANDY REMAINING A VERY DEEP CYCLONE AND THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDING DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY DEEPENS AGAIN OFF THE U.S.
EAST COAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
REGARDLESS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE CYCLONE AT OR NEAR
HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/17...AS SANDY HAS BEGUN TO
ACCELERATE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LOW. THE REASONING FOR THE
TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. SANDY WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THEN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS NOW SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO SANDY INTERACTING
WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS INTERACTION...AS THE ECMWF HAS
SANDY FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SOONER
RELATIVE TO MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A WIDER
TURN AND A TRACK FARTHER NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT IS
LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT
DESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH
SANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES
WILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE
CENTER OF SANDY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 24.5N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 26.0N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 27.4N 77.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 29.8N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 33.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 40.5N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 7:04 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY BETWEEN CAT ISLAND AND ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 75.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE RAGGED ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.8 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...27 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A
HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW LARGER IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SQUALLS
WITH WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS EVENING...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 2 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 25, 2012 9:57 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

...CENTER OF SANDY PASSING NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 76.1W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
230 MILES...370 KM. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF
41 MPH...67 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS EVENING AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY
HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
AT 8000 FT WERE 90 KT...AND DROPSONDES IN WHAT REMAINED OF THE
EYEWALL SUGGESTED 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
RISEN TO 968 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.

SANDY HAS BEGUN ITS ANTICIPATED LEFT TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 335/11. THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AFTER
THAT...A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.
AFTER 72 HR...SANDY SHOULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE
BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A TRACK THAT SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
ONSHORE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
TO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE
WESTWARD POSITION AT THE 24 HOUR POINT THAT LIES BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
OTHERWISE...THE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AND NEAR SANDY...WHICH IS HELPING TO
KEEP THE STORM GOING DESPITE 35 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
RESULT OF THIS INTERACTION IS THAT SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND
IN SIZE...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE CENTRAL WINDS. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE STARTS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS EARLY
AS 96 HR...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR IT WILL HAVE PROCEEDED
BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL. THUS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES
TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE POST-TROPICAL IN 120 HR...WITH A VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION TO THE FIRST 36 HR DUE
TO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING THIS EVENING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 25.3N 76.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 34.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0000Z 40.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:34 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 76.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANDROS ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT
ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A 2-MINUTE WIND OF 46
MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 5:35 am

HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY PASSING NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
...WIND FIELD CONTINUING TO EXPAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST
TODAY...BUT SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 66 MPH...
106 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE DISPLACED MOST
OF THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT
WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD HAVE BROADENED SUBSTANTIALLY. AS A
RESULT...WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE VERY EFFICIENTLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 70 KT. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD...SOME RE-
INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LARGE CYCLONE
DEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IT
APPEARS THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF WARM SECLUSION
STRUCTURE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SANDY COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/11. AS
SANDY CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LOW IT WILL SLOW DOWN
TODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LATE IN
THE PERIOD...WHILE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SANDY TURNING
NORTHWESTWARD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE EXACT
TRACK. THE ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...AND SOME OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE SHOW
A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE THE GFS AND
UKMET SHOW A WIDER TURN WITH A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LONG
ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THE ECMWF
AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IS JUST A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT
FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE EXPECTED GROWTH IN THE SIZE OF
THE OUTER WIND FIELD...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA ON THIS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 26.3N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 27.2N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 35.5N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 38.5N 74.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:06 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCEPT ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A FURTHER DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH TONIGHT AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND MOVE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. THE WIND FIELD OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO GROW IN SIZE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING
AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN THE BAHAMAS...5 TO 8 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:59 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 76.9W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND REPLACED THE HURRICANE
WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
EXCEPT FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO
CRAIG KEY AND FOR FLORIDA BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXCEPT FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE
AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE SITE AT LAKE WORTH
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H WITH A GUST
TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD IN THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WARNING AREAS IN THE BAHAMAS...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF
THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION. USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT
LEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY
LIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL
AT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF
THE TRANSITION. REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL
OR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE
IMPACTS.

LATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION
WITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD. THE CURRENT
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS
IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS. THE FLOW ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT
FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 26.7N 76.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 30.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 36.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 39.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 31/1200Z 40.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 1:15 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY WEAKENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLANDS...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN
REEF TO DEERFIELD BEACH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING
AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 49
MPH...80 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...93 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD IN THE
WARNING AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC..WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA..WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WARNING AREAS IN THE BAHAMAS...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:02 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM GREAT ABACO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 77.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TO ST AUGUSTINE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49
MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES..ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS
OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE
THE SYSTEM. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE DROPPING BELOW
HURRICANE STATUS. THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT PENDING
THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 0000
UTC CENTER FIX. THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE THE NHC
FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE
PRESUMABLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREACST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST
THAT SANDY COULD TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3
TO 4 DAYS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SLOW AND...IN FACT...RECENT
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER.
HOWEVER A MORE REPRESENTATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NEAR 360/6.
AFTER SANDY ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS WEST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY AROUND 72
HOURS...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST
COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD AND OVER THE
U.S. COAST. INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 27.3N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 28.3N 77.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 29.7N 76.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 31.3N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 33.1N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 37.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 39.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 31/1800Z 41.0N 77.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM GREAT ABACO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 77.2W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO ST AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
275 MILES...445 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 130 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
54 MPH...86 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES..ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS
OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Fri Oct 26, 2012 9:54 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...SANDY REMAINS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 395 MI...630 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO ST AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
ON SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND SANDY MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415
MILES...665 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 49 MPH...79 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS
OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

SANDY IS SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF A HYBRID CYCLONE THIS EVENING.
OVERALL...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW.
HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS...AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN BANDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM NEAR 2000
UTC INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD A DEEP WARM CORE.
DROPSONDES AND SFMR DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONGER WINDS
WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. AN
INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN THE CONVECTION AT FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LESS THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE INITIAL
MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 010/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THIS MOTION
SHOULD PERSIST FOR 48 HR OR SO. AFTER THAT...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST...TOWARD AND OVER THE U.S. COAST. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST 48
HR...AND THE FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THERE
WAS LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE LANDFALL AREA AND TIME
IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WHICH IS DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...VERY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF
THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE SANDY TO RE-INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO
BAROCLININC ENERGY PROCESSES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SANDY
REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-72 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THIS HAPPENS...AND
WHEN THIS PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE IS UNCERTAIN. REGARDLESS OF THE
EXACT STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND
POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM
THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 27.7N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 28.8N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 32.0N 73.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 33.8N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 40.0N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z 42.0N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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