ATL: SANDY - HPC Advisories

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:16 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS...
...LARGE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 76.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...AND SANDY MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
435 MILES...705 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 54 MPH...86 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 72 MPH...115 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 969
MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:19 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY WEAKENS BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE STORM WITH
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY
41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220 KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 56 MPH...90 KM/H...
AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT
SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND
OF 46 MPH...74 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...102 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB...28.61 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE WEEKEND.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI





TROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

THE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL IS FULLY ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AROUND 969 MB...
BUT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO
AROUND 60 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. THE
STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE RECENT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AROUND 55 KT.

WHILE A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WEST OF SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE.
AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING DUE TO
BAROCLINIC FORCING WHILE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE.
THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SANDY AGAIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT
48 HOURS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL
DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SANDY
WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

SANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS
SANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP
NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48
HOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST
NOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE
TURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE
NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 28.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 29.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 31.4N 74.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 33.2N 72.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 35.7N 71.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 40.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z 41.5N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0600Z 43.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 7:11 am

HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AGAIN...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 76.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

DATA FROM NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SANDY IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 MILES...725 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 74 MPH...119 KM/H. A
NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA RECENTLY
REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 43 MPH...69 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF
53 MPH...85 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS BY
THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED
PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC
TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 10:01 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY NEAR THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 76.0W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST. OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SANDY HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...
HOWEVER...A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN
SAMPLING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND
AN AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE SFMR WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER AND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 91 KT. A
DROPSONDE RELEASED FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IN THE SAME AREA ALSO
SUPPORTED WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT ALSO
REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 956 MB FROM A DROPSONDE
AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT THE PRESSURE IS UP A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS ON
THE LATEST FIX. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INTENSITY WAS
INCREASED ON THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AND SANDY IS ONCE AGAIN
A 65-KT HURRICANE. WHILE SANDY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE AT
HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
COULD INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE SUNDAY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREPVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN
AFTER LANDFALL.

ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
MADE A JOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LONGER
TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INTIAL MOTION OF 030/8 KT. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS.
AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A
WESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF
THE UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...
SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48
HOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST...MEANING THAT SANDY
WOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...RATHER THAN
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE
BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. HAVING SAID THAT...IT
IS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER...BOTH
BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING
TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

NOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 29.0N 76.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 32.2N 73.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 34.2N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 36.4N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 39.8N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z 40.8N 77.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1200Z 43.8N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 1:13 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 75.6W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...GALE...STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.6 WEST. SANDY
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450
MILES...725 KM. NOAA BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED
WIND OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 76 MPH...122 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA IN THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND SPREAD
NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:57 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 75.2W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...
94 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING
LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BY SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

FIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY. IN ORDER TO
AVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO
NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND
HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY
HAVE CAUSED THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE
AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS FINAL PASS THROUGH SANDY AROUND 1800
UTC AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 961 MB. WIND DATA
FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A RECENT DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT
CONDUCTING A SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SANDY SUPPORT MAINTAINING
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING. SANDY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL
INTERACT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC
PROCESSES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION AND SANDY IS LIKELY TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS
TRANSFORMATION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.
AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN.

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. SANDY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING A
STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS DOES NOT
QUITE DEPICT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO LONG
ISLAND. HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE
EXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 30.2N 75.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 31.5N 73.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 33.4N 72.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 35.4N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 37.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1800Z 42.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/1800Z 45.5N 74.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:56 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD WHILE HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...
...SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS ALSO EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS
FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF SANDY
WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41013...LOCATED ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A
SUSTAINED WIND OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 63 MPH...
101 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 961 MB...28.38 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
SPREAD NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD
REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

FL EAST COAST NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...1 TO 2 FT
NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

...SANDY CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...
...STRONG WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 74.3W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ALONG WITH
OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS FORECAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...73 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH...97 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY AND REACH
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TO
NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBERMARLE SNDS...3 TO 5 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
SANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR
FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND
THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT. THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED
PRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB.

SANDY HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/12. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE
IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SANDY IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER
INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER
LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE U. S. TROUGH TO FORM
A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH THE RESULTING SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT
TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE
IMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

SANDY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY
A TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE
HURRICANE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WHILE THE
INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS...
THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...AND IF THAT HAPPENS
SANDY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 36
HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE
U. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG WITH
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 48
HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL HAVE LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE SIZE AND IMPACTS OF THIS LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM.
AFTER LANDFALL...THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO
STEADILY WEAKEN.

AS ALSO NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK
OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL
WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH
OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED
THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 30.9N 74.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 32.2N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 34.1N 71.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 36.3N 71.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0000Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0000Z 43.5N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0000Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:40 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 23A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 73.7W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ALONG WITH
OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND APPROACH THE COAST OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL
CYCLONE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...73 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW YORK INTO NEW
ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES ON SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:41 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A SIGNIFICANT STORM
SURGE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 73.3W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA IS
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ALONG WITH
OTHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS...ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AND POWERFUL
UNTIL IT CROSSES THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44
MPH...71 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY...5 TO 10 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT
FIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.
HOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT. ALTHOUGH
IT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY. THE VERTICAL
SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL
SOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM
TODAY. IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
COLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE
TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL
IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID
WEAKENING.

THE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED
NEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS SANDY INTERACTS
WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE
U.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN
NORTHWARD. AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE
VICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 31.9N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 33.2N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 35.2N 70.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 39.5N 73.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/0600Z 47.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#51 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:05 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.1N 73.1W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM E OF NEW YORK CITY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. SEE STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHEAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND APPROACH THE
COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. A SHIP LOCTAED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF
MOREHEAD CITY NORTH CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41036...LOCATED IN ONSLOW BAY
NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA...AND THESE
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND
REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT OR NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC SOUTH OF SURF CITY...1 TO 3 FT
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 2 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND AND RARITAN BAY INCLUDING NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO
11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY...3 TO 5 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#52 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:58 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 72.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520
MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63
MPH...102 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN



HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
MISSIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INTENSITY OR OVERALL STRUCTURE OF SANDY...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BENE AS LOW AS 951 MB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA...
ALONG WITH DATA FROM SHIPS...BUOYS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES
INDICATE...HOWEVER...THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST...AND THE 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO ABOUT
200 N MI IN THAT SAME QUADRANT. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING
MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME TRACK WOBBLES BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS 045/12 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A
STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD THE
U.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH UNDERCUTS
SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL
LANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE 12 TO 36-HOUR
PERIOD AND SANDY IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS
GREATER THAN 25C. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SANDY TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY WHEN
IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULFSTREAM TONIGHT. BY 36 HOURS...
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS
UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND A TRANSITION TO
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...
THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...INDICATE
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 32.5N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 34.0N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 38.7N 72.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 40.1N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1200Z 41.3N 77.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1200Z 44.5N 76.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1200Z 46.6N 73.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#53 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL...
...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE
BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW
JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND
RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62
MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE
MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#54 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:40 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 71.3W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.3 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 48 MPH...78 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 60
MPH...96 KM/H...AND A STATION AT DUCK NORTH CAROLINA 47 MPH...76
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H. A BUOY NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...
83 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 59 MPH...94 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT
951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY
QUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF
SANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS
OF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE
REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.
SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE
HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT
RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT
SLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN
DECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED
MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE
HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY
BEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 33.4N 71.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 35.0N 70.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 37.7N 71.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 39.5N 74.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 30/1800Z 40.2N 76.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 31/1800Z 42.7N 76.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 01/1800Z 44.7N 75.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 02/1800Z 45.6N 71.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#55 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:55 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK
HARBOR...
...WILL BRING COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 70.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 34.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND
THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN
FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
520 MILES...835 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT CAPE
HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...
WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH...91 KM/H...AND THE NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION
RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND
GUST OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM TWO NOAA AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#56 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:49 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

...SANDY ABOUT TO START ITS NORTHWARD TURN...EXPECTED TO BRING
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY
APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 70.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN
FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. A NATIONAL
OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE WILLOUGHBY DEGAUSSING STATION NEAR
NORFOLK NAVAL STATION VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW
STATION AT THIMBLE SHOALS VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER
TONIGHT...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...ON MONDAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE
UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012

THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
REPORTING A 25-35 MILE WIDE EYE WITH AN OPEN EYEWALL. HOWEVER...
THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE STORM ARE NOT OCCURRING IN THE
EYEWALL...AS THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FOUND A LARGE
AREA OF AT LEAST 60 KT SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 100-120 N MI SOUTHWEST
OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED 700-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.

SANDY HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 035/12. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
WITH SANDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER
NEAR OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS...
AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER
LANDFALL TIME THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...SANDY
IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. A TURN TOWARD
THE EAST IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF SANDY
SURVIVES THAT LONG.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER SANDY...AND THE CENTER IS
MOVING OVER A LOCALLY WARMER PATCH OF WATER. THESE CONDITIONS MAY
HAVE ALLOWED THE EYEWALL FORMATION...AND THEY COULD LEAD TO SOME
STRENGTHENING IN ADDITION TO THAT CAUSED BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.
HOWEVER...SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW THAT THE PROCESS OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BEGINNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD
FRONT NOW INTERACTING WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BUT IT WILL
NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE
STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. SANDY IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 34.5N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 36.4N 70.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 38.7N 73.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 39.8N 75.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z 40.6N 77.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0000Z 43.5N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0000Z 45.5N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0000Z 46.0N 70.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3470
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#57 Postby abajan » Mon Oct 29, 2012 4:06 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...EXPECTED TO BRING
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY
APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 70.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN
FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...
280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. WEATHERFLOW
STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE
UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN
THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...
WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM
SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.9N 70.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 35.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING
INLAND.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485
MILES...780 KM. NOAA DATA BUOY 41001 LOCATED EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 MPH WITH A GUST OF 85 MPH. A
WEATHERFLOW STATION IN THIRD ISLAND VIRGINIA REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 51 MPH WITH A GUST OF 59 MPH. A WEATHERFLOW STATION IN
LEWES DELAWARE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH A GUST OF 49
MPH.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH AN EYE OCCASIONALLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE...SFMR MEASUREMENTS...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...AND DROPSONDE
DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 KT. SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL TRAVERSE
THE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING...AND THE SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT
THIS TIME...SOME MORE STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MAIN MECHANISM
FOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BAROCLINIC FORCING. THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS PREDICTION
AS THAT MODEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TYPE
OF SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A WELL-MARKED WARM AND COLD FRONT LIE NOT
FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY. AS THE
CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THESE FRONTS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO
BE COMPLETE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING
RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE
GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER
LANDFALL.

CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR ABOUT
360/13...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT MOVES BETWEEN
THE CYCLONE AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR
ATLANTIC CANADA...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AS
THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 35.9N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 37.8N 72.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 39.5N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1800Z 40.0N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0600Z 40.5N 77.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0600Z 44.0N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/0600Z 45.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/0600Z 46.5N 70.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#58 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:50 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
800 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATING...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 71.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 310 MI...505 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* BERMUDA

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR
WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS
TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...
AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485
MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...AND EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS
MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY.
WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#59 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:13 am

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD SOON...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND COASTAL
HURRICANE WINDS PLUS HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 71.5W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST. SANDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH...150
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A
FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF
THE SYSTEM...AND...IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING
INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM LONG ISLAND SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND
EXTEND AS FAR INLAND AS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
DELAWARE BAY. A WEATHERFLOW REPORT INDICATES A SUSTAINED WIND OF 53
MPH...85 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...HAS RECENTLY
OCCURRED ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 943 MB...27.85 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE-FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO LONG ISLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST...NEW YORK CITY...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY THIS EVENING. WINDS
AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


HURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

SANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA
AND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER
EYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND
SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A
LITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB. BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.

RECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT
330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.
THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK
OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS
OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR
JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS
EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.
AFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL
NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND
LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.

SANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND
27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA
LOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE
IN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH
WILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD
THAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE
VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN
WATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES
THE COAST. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE
OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS
WEATHER SYSTEM. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.

INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT
FORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT
NECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND.

AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE
CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES
POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND
WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 37.5N 71.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 39.0N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1200Z 39.9N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0000Z 40.4N 77.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1200Z 41.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/1200Z 44.5N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 02/1200Z 45.9N 72.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 03/1200Z 47.5N 68.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117483
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: SANDY - Advisories

#60 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:59 pm

BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS.
THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT...
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS
OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY
AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO
MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND
SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN
ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER
WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1
WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH...
44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.

REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION
WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS
OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL
OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A
GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK.
ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61
KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET
ABOVE THE WATER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY
OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF
HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND LEVEL.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE
AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE
FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING
DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH
TIDE...

NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT

SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND
EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION...
ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE
BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AT 300 AND 400 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests