BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

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BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#1 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:02 am

This is the Invest Formerly Known As 93W.

Image
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Meow

#2 Postby Meow » Wed Oct 24, 2012 11:39 am

It is still called 93W.
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#3 Postby euro6208 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 11:12 pm

still 93W...

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
95.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 94.0E, APPROXIMATELY 410 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DISORGANIZED AND
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA IS SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVING SOME SLIGHT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA REMAINS LOW (05-
10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28-
30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
LOW.
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#4 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 12:18 pm

20121026 1430 12.1 -91.7 T1.0/1.0 93W 93W
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:32 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N
94.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 580 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS PERSISTENT CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN
IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 0544Z OSCAT PASS
REVEALS A WELL DEFINED BUT WEAK (10-15 KT) LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE AREA IS JUST
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT GIVING
SOME SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA
REMAINS LOW (05-10 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#6 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:08 pm

Image


WTIO21 PGTW 280330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1N 86.1E TO 8.8N 80.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
280200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N
84.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.6N
86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A
CLOUD-COVERED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280007Z SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALED 25-30
KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH WEAKER (10-15 KNOT)
WINDS TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
THIS SYSTEM TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS AS THE STRONGER WINDS BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290330Z.//
NNNN
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#7 Postby euro6208 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 10:44 am

20121028 0830 9.6 -85.1 T2.5/2.5 93W 93W

equivalent to a tropical storm...
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:54 am

big burst of convection!! intense rains lashing northern sri lanka


Image
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#9 Postby Macrocane » Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:53 am

Now Tropical Cyclone 02B per JTWC

WTIO31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290321ZOCT2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 8.8N 82.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 82.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 9.7N 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 10.9N 79.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 11.8N 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 9.0N 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTATED ALONG THE
NORTHERN FEEDER BAND. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE
ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 291234Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWING A PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 04 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NOTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 24 IN
THE VICINITY OF KAKINADA, INDIA. DESPITE THE INCREASING VWS, TC 02B
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE TO
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AS EVIDENCED ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO
FRICTION AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS FORECAST
IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN STORM MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
SYSTEM. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 290330Z OCT 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTIO21 PGTW 290330). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
291200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND
301500Z.//
NNNN
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#10 Postby Meow » Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:01 pm

Now it is Deep Depression BOB 02, and it will become a cyclonic storm soon.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#11 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:27 pm

Image

very large area of intense rains...


up to 40 knots 1 min and expected to intensify a little bit before making landfall in india...


20121029 2030 8.6 -81.8 T3.0/3.0 02B NONAME
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#12 Postby Meow » Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:34 am

This is now Cyclonic Storm Nilam from the IMD, also 02B from the JTWC.
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#13 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 30, 2012 8:36 am

WTIO31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (TWO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTH IO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 9.0N 83.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - QUASISTATIONARY
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.0N 83.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 10.1N 82.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 11.6N 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 13.3N 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 15.0N 77.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 83.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH A 300357Z
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED AND SLIGHTLY DISPLACED
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A LARGE AREA OF FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED UPON THE MSI
ANIMATION AND THE MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND DEMS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC.
TC 02B IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A
LARGE SPREAD BUT ALL CONTINUALLY AGREE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. TC 02B IS FORECAST TO
SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU
36 AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02B WILL DISSIPATE BY
TAU 48 AS IT SUCCUMBS TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#14 Postby Macrocane » Tue Oct 30, 2012 8:39 am

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
RSMC – TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
CHARTS OF 30TH OCTOBER 2012.
CYCLONIC STORM ‘NILAM’, REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY AND LAY CENTRED AT 1430 HOURS IST OF TODAY, THE 30TH OCTOBER 2012 NEAR LATITUDE 9.5°N AND LONGITUDE 82.0°E, ABOUT 450 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI AND 130 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF TRINCOMALEE (SRI LANKA). THE
SYSTEM WOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH TAMIL NADU & ADJOINING
SOUTH ANDHRA PRADESH COAST BETWEEN CUDDALORE AND NELLORE NEAR CHENNAI BY 31ST
OCTOBER, 2012 EVENING.

BASED ON LATEST ANALYSIS WITH NWP MODELS AND OTHER CONVENTIONAL TECHNIQUES,
ESTIMATED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM ARE GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW:

30-10-2012/0900 9.5/82.0 65-75 GUSTING TO 85 CYCLONIC STORM
30-10-2012/1200 9.5/81.8 70-80 GUSTING TO 90 CYCLONIC STORM
30-10-2012/1800 10.0/81.2 75-85 GUSTING TO 95 CYCLONIC STORM
31-10-2012/0000 10.7/80.9 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
31-10-2012/0600 11.5/80.6 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
31-10-2012/1800 12.8/80.0 80-90 GUSTING TO 100 CYCLONIC STORM
01-11-2012/0600 14.2/79.0 50-60 GUSTING TO 70 DEPRESSION
01-11-2012/1800 16.0/78.0 25-35 GUSTING TO 45 LOW

ACCORDING TO SATELLITE IMAGERIES, VORTEX OVER SW BAY ADJ SRILANKA CENTERED NEAR 9.5N/81.9E (.)
INTENSITY T2.5 RPT T2.5 (.) ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION OVER SRILANKA
GULF OF MANNAR COMORIN PALK STR TAMIL NADU ADJOINING RAYALSEEMA SW ADJOINING WEST CENTRAL
BAY BET LAT 6.5N TO 12.0N WEST OF LONG 84.0E (.)
REMARK:
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 29-30º C. OVER SOUTH
BAY OF BENGAL. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS > 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. THE MADDEN
JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 2. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT
IS EXPECTED TO LIE IN PHASE 2 DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LIES OVER CENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL (NORTHEAST SECTOR OF CYCLONE). THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 13ºN. THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND RELATIVE VORTICITY HAS INCREASED DURING PAST 06 HRS AND
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS AND IS LOW ( 5-10 KNOTS) AROUND
SYSTEM CENTRE. 24 HOURS WIND SHEAR TENDENCY SHOWS DECREASING TREND OF THE ORDER OF 20 KNOTS
OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF TAMIL NADU AND ANDHRA PRADESH COAST.
MOST MODELS SUGGEST NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT TOWARDS NORTH TAMIL NADU AND LANDFALL NEAR
CHENNAI.
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#15 Postby Meow » Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:39 am

The previous picture of Nilam’s forecast track from the IMD is really impressive... :eek:

Image
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#16 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:27 pm

Image


WTIO31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (NILAM) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 10.3N 81.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 81.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 11.7N 79.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.6N 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.4N 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 81.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE
MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WHICH IS IN
LINE WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE
LLCC REMAINS ON A STEADY TRACK AROUND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL EXTENSION OF THE STR IS CREATING
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SYSTEM, AND IS ALSO LEADING TO
MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 20 KNOT). THE
FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM SUPPORTING THE
SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
SYSTEM TRACKING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF INDIA AND WEAKENING IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING LAND INTERACTION. THERE
HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MODELS SHOWING THE LLCC COULD
APPROACH THE WESTERN COAST OF INDIA IN LATER TAUS, BUT THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ARABIAN SEA.
BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z,
312100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN
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badkhan
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#17 Postby badkhan » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:29 am

Are there any chances of it regenerating after crossing the Deccan Plateau à la Cyclone Yemyin? What are the conditions like in the Arabian sea?
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#18 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:32 am

This should be called Cyclonic Storm Nalim now. I dont have the authority to change it here. I dont believe so at least. But ya just a heads up.

Currently Making landfall near Chennai as a severe strong Cyclone.

Doppler
http://www.imd.gov.in/section/dwr/dynamic/dwr.htm

Official Track, not that JTWC Stuff

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cyclone.htm
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Re: BAY OF BENGAL: Invest 93B

#19 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:34 am

Here is my latest video on the storm as well from this morning. I will put another one out in a few hours.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=0qTpewbvdA4

Plus the public advisory from India.

http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/cwind.pdf
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#20 Postby RobWESTPACWX » Wed Oct 31, 2012 7:58 am

As far as it getting over to the east coast, I think very unlikely, the air is way to dry in the area for it to make the trek across.
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