EPAC: ROSA - Post-Tropical

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EPAC: ROSA - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 3:48 pm

Up on the NRL.

30% in latest outlook.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM MAY OCCUR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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I don't get hurricanes here but I do get their remnants.

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 5:57 pm

All the attention with reason is to Sandy but we may see Rosa form here.

Code: Select all

WHXX01 KMIA 272251
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2251 UTC SAT OCT 27 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP982012) 20121027 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        121027  1800   121028  0600   121028  1800   121029  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    10.8N 109.6W   11.5N 111.2W   12.4N 112.5W   13.7N 113.6W
BAMD    10.8N 109.6W   11.4N 110.9W   12.1N 112.3W   12.7N 113.6W
BAMM    10.8N 109.6W   11.3N 111.0W   11.9N 112.3W   12.6N 113.4W
LBAR    10.8N 109.6W   11.4N 110.6W   12.2N 111.7W   13.1N 112.9W
SHIP        25KTS          27KTS          36KTS          43KTS
DSHP        25KTS          27KTS          36KTS          43KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        121029  1800   121030  1800   121031  1800   121101  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.9N 114.5W   16.3N 117.0W   17.0N 119.7W   17.1N 121.7W
BAMD    13.1N 114.4W   13.4N 116.0W   13.4N 117.5W   13.2N 118.5W
BAMM    13.1N 114.3W   13.6N 116.1W   13.9N 117.9W   13.8N 119.2W
LBAR    14.2N 113.7W   16.3N 114.1W   19.2N 110.8W   22.8N 105.3W
SHIP        47KTS          49KTS          45KTS          42KTS
DSHP        47KTS          49KTS          45KTS          42KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  10.8N LONCUR = 109.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =   7KT
LATM12 =  10.5N LONM12 = 108.2W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =   8KT
LATM24 =  10.3N LONM24 = 106.7W
WNDCUR =   25KT RMAXWD =   60NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 98E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:44 pm

Up to 40%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 27 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL CONDUCIVE...
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#4 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:58 am

50%

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINAL CONDUCIVE...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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#5 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:55 pm

Stays at 50%

1. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
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#6 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:51 pm

Down to 40%


SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
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Re: EPAC: SEVENTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 30, 2012 5:44 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
300 AM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED RATHER
QUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF
GENERALLY LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...BUT THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE
SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE THAN IS
INDICATED BY ANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS
AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 295/7 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THIS MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. AFTER 48
HOURS...ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE IT TO SLOW DOWN AND
THEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST
OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...AND THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1000Z 14.4N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 14.7N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 15.1N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 15.4N 119.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 15.5N 120.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 03/0600Z 14.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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#8 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:47 am

Now Tropical Storm ROSA:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM ROSA FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 116.5W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH WEAKENING
LIKELY BEGINNING ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#9 Postby brunota2003 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:16 am

Wooo...at least it'll be a fish, right?
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Re:

#10 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 10:27 am

brunota2003 wrote:Wooo...at least it'll be a fish, right?


Definitely no threat to any landmasses as she's supposed to stay weak and remain over open water.
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 30, 2012 3:41 pm

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012

ROSA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE CENTER...A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB
RESPECTIVELY...SO A BLEND OF 40 KT IS USED FOR THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED.

THE CENTER OF ROSA REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION...A SIGN OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST ROSA WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF A BAND OF STRONG SHEAR
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE INTENSITY MODELS NOW SHOW THE
STORM GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER BEFORE THE SHEAR ARRIVES...SO THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.

VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE DATA GIVE A MORE CERTAIN MOTION ESTIMATE OF
280/5...A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. A WEAK RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT TIME...WITH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE DEPTH
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING
APPARENT. THE GFS MODEL HAS JOINED THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A DEEPER
STORM...WHICH FEELS THE EFFECT OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND CAUSES
ROSA TO SLOW DOWN OR EVEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. SINCE THE
GFS FORECAST MADE SUCH A LARGE CHANGE AND IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MORE
WESTWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY
CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A FAIR
AMOUNT...BUT IS WELL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 14.6N 117.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 14.9N 118.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 15.0N 119.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 15.0N 119.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 14.5N 120.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 124.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#12 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 4:10 pm

Rosa, stuck deep in the dark shadows.
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#13 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 30, 2012 6:14 pm

Wow that was literally quick. It went from 50% to a TD -_____-.
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:40 pm

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ROSA HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE
SEEN IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ESTIMATES
REMAIN 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE VALUES. WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF ROSA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW
IN THAT SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOW WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM. AFTER 24 HOURS...A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO
WEAKENING AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

A 2231 UTC AMSU PASS SHOWED THAT ROSA IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE
EAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
275/04. ROSA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF...UKMET...
AND NOGAPS SHOW A WEAKENING ROSA TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY
4. ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW A DEEPER REPRESENTATION OF
ROSA TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN RESPONSE TO A MID-
LEVEL CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
GIVEN THAT ROSA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE
FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING...THE GFS/GFDL SEENARIO SEEMS A LITTLE
LESS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF A FEW
OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THAT THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...BUT STILL SHOWS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO
PROVIDE SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT CYCLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 14.5N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 14.6N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 14.7N 118.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 14.8N 118.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 14.9N 119.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 14.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#15 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Oct 31, 2012 8:21 pm

Now at 45 knots.
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#16 Postby Extratropical94 » Thu Nov 01, 2012 12:08 am

50 knots:


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012

...ROSA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 118.1W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ROSA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.1 WEST. ROSA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 01, 2012 9:46 am

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ROSA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS
ORGANIZED WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...BANDING
FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING ON
THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 35 TO 55 KT...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY
TO 45 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A SLOW
WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE STORM COULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 48H DUE
TO STRONG WIND SHEAR...AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT END UP FARTHER SOUTH
THAN FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION CALLS FOR BASICALLY THE
SAME GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT
IN ABOUT 72H DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON
THE STORM DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36H OR
SO DUE TO NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW TO THE
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH INFLUENCES HOW QUICKLY ROSA TURNS
TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THE LONGER RANGES...SO
THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.9N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.8N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 13.6N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 13.5N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 14.2N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 15.5N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 01, 2012 3:43 pm

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
200 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2012

THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH ROSA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS...AND THIS VALUE REMAINS THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...ROSA HAS TEMPORARILY MISSED THE STRONGEST SHEAR.
HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A LARGE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 48H AND CAUSE
ROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THUS THE
NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE BELOW
THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.

MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT ROSA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD
TODAY...AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTHWARD RECENTLY. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LITTLE NET MOTION
WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD
THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKE LOOKING AT A BROKEN RECORD
SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY THE SAME GFS-BASED GUIDANCE ON THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...AND THE GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET/HWRF ON
THE LEFT SIDE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE HFIP
CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW IN CLOSER
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE
AIDS...RESULTING IN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 118.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 13.3N 118.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 13.1N 118.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 13.3N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 119.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 15.5N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 02, 2012 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
200 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012

THE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...AN INDICATION
THAT MODERATE-TO-STRONG SHEAR IS BECOMING DETRIMENTAL TO THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM 1805 UTC DID SHOW QUITE A FEW
WIND VECTORS OF 35 KT OR GREATER...SUGGESTING PEAK WINDS OF 40 KT.
THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...ROSA WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY...AND TO A
REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS.

ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW THAT ROSA HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER
TO THE SOUTHWEST...235/3. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
NOTICEABLY SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE 6H AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND...STAYING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 12.6N 119.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.6N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1800Z 13.1N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 3:39 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
200 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012

THE END APPEARS TO BE NEAR FOR ROSA. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SWIRL
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUE
TO BE SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST OF ROSA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SO
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12
HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS
AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN ONLY
24 HOURS.

ROSA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/3. MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW
CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
FORECAST...AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 12.7N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 12.9N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 04/1800Z 13.2N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 13.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 13.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 14.6N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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