EPAC: ROSA - Post-Tropical

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brunota2003
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#21 Postby brunota2003 » Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:41 pm

You are the weakest link, Rosa. Goodbye. :lol:
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Depression

#22 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 03, 2012 9:35 pm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
800 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012

ROSA IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS A
TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS. IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN
SOON...ROSA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. EVEN IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
QUICKLY SHEARED OFF DUE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE
AND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT STEERED BY
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT ROSA...OR
ITS REMNANT LOW...WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD AND
SLOW BIAS...AND SINCE ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 12.7N 121.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 12.9N 121.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0000Z 13.2N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1200Z 13.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 13.9N 122.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Tropical Depression

#23 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2012 9:54 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
700 AM PST SUN NOV 04 2012

DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION OF ROSA OF THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS RECENT
INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY AS STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOVE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB
AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 25 KT. THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK DEMISE OF ROSA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ROSA APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE UPDATED TRACK
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF
MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 12.5N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 12.6N 121.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1200Z 12.9N 121.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 13.0N 122.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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Re: EPAC: ROSA - Post-Tropical

#24 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 04, 2012 3:34 pm

Last advisory written


BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
100 PM PST SUN NOV 04 2012

...ROSA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 121.5W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.5 WEST. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 1 MPH...2 KM/H. A SLOW
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON ROSA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172012
100 PM PST SUN NOV 04 2012

ROSA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME...AND
THE SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAS
SINCE DISSIPATED. THE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND NO
LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BASED ON THIS...ROSA IS
DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS
SYSTEM. A 1724 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE
AROUND 25 KT. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ROSA HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH TODAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 12.6N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 05/0600Z 12.9N 121.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/1800Z 13.2N 122.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0600Z 13.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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