WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[ManilaTC]

Should be a Tropical Storm once the next warnings go out.

637
TXPQ27 KNES 261517
TCSWNP

A. 26W (NONAME)

B. 26/1430Z

C. 4.2N

D. 156.3E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS <-- 35kts / 65kph

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM ORGANIZTION HAS IMPROVED AND MORE DEEP CONVECTION
BUILDING AROUND LLCC. WITH DT=2.5 BASED ON 5/10 BANDING. MET=2.0 AND
PAT=2.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON

[cycloneye]

Guam NWS local Statement.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 AM CHST TUE NOV 27 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN NUKUORO ATOLL AND SAPWUAFIK /NGATIK/ ATOLL IN POHNPEI
STATE...AND LUKUNOR AND ITS SURROUNDING ATOLLS...LOSAP...CHUUK
LAGOON ISLANDS AND PULUWAT IN CHUUK STATE.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.1 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
445 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF
40 TO 50 MPH WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE CENTER OF TD 26W DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS TD 26W MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST. VERY HIGH TIDES DUE
TO THE FULL MOON WILL ADD TO ANY INUNDATION PROBLEMS IN THE COMING
DAYS AS 26W INTENSIFIES.

...NUKUORO...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE
ATTEMPTED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SETTLED DOWN. REMAIN IN SHELTER
THIS MORNING OR UNTIL WINDS HAVE SETTLED DOWN. KEEP INFORMED ON THE
LATEST BULLETINS FROM POHNPEI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
WEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SUBSIDE
TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH FURTHER THIS EVENING AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET AND WILL CAUSE
SURF TO BUILD ALONG WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SHORES. INUNDATION OF 2 TO
3 FEET IS POSSIBLE AT HIGH TIDE FROM THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...LUKUNOR AND NEARBY ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT. INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL SHOULD NOT BE
ATTEMPTED UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SETTLED DOWN. SEEK SUITABLE
SHELTER FIRST THING THIS MORNING. PREPARATIONS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
SHOULD BE COMPLETED THIS MORNING. REMAIN IN SHELTER THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEEP INFORMED ON THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL
PASS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN MORTLOCKS AND THE CENTER OR EYE
COULD PASS ACROSS SOME OF THE ISLANDS. IF STRONG WINDS ARE FOLLOWED
BY A RAPID REDUCTION IN WIND SPEED...DO NOT GO FAR FROM SHELTERS AS
STRONG WINDS COULD PICK UP AGAIN VERY RAPIDLY.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W WILL BUILD TO 9 TO 12 FEET AND WILL CAUSE
SURF TO BUILD ALONG ALL REEFS. INUNDATION OF 4 TO 5 FEET IS POSSIBLE
AT HIGH TIDE AND STORM SURGE WILL AFFECT ALL EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 5 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

...LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. AVOID
INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL TO ISLANDS TOWARD THE SOUTH. IF THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W SHIFTS JUST A LITTLE NORTHWARD...A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LOSAP AND CHUUK LAGOON. PRACTICE
YOUR TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN AND GO OVER SUPPLIES TO MAKE SURE YOU
HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS. IDENTIFY A SUITABLE
SHELTER IN CASE IT BECOMES NECESSARY.

...WIND INFORMATION...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH TODAY WILL SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE
EAST AND INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
WAVES GENERATED BY TD 26W WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET WEDNESDAY AND
WILL CAUSE SURF TO BUILD ALONG EASTERN AND SOUTHERN REEF EXPOSURES.
INUNDATION OF 1 TO 2 FEET COULD OCCUR AT HIGH TIDE.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AT THIS TIME...MUDSLIDES ARE NOT EXPECTED ON THE HIGH
ISLANDS OF CHUUK LAGOON.

...PULUWAT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM CHUUK EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICE OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FAIRLY CLOSE TO PULUWAT EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER
THIS MORNING.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT SCHEDULED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 900 AM CHST TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

ZIOBRO

[ManilaTC]

803
TPPN10 PGTW 261809

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (SE OF CHUUK)

B. 26/1730Z

C. 4.2N

D. 156E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .40 WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm BOPHA

TS 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 19:15 UTC, 26 November 2012
<Analyses at 26/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N4°05'(4.1°)
E156°20'(156.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°00'(4.0°)
E154°35'(154.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°05'(4.1°)
E152°00'(152.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°05'(4.1°)
E148°30'(148.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

[supercane4867]

The 24th named storm of the season!

[cycloneye]

Is that JMA track too far south? JTWC track is more north at days 4-5.

[ManilaTC]

JMA track is putting it dead west, while JTWC and KMA agree to a more WNW track after 4-5 days.

** WTKO20 RKSL 261800 ***
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 1224 BOPHA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261800UTC 4.1N 156.0E
MOVEMENT W 5KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 271800UTC 4.9N 153.8E WITHIN 80NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT
48HR
POSITION 281800UTC 5.3N 150.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 291800UTC 5.3N 146.4E WITHIN 215NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 60KT
96HR
POSITION 301800UTC 5.6N 142.5E WITHIN 295NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 70KT
120HR
POSITION 011800UTC 6.5N 138.8E WITHIN 380NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 74KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


** WTPN31 PGTW 262100 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 4.2N 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.2N 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 4.3N 155.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 4.4N 153.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 4.5N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 4.6N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 4.9N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 5.4N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 6.7N 138.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 4.2N 155.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.//

[cycloneye]

JTWC forecast track at 2100z warning is more south than the 1500z one at days 4-5.

1500z




2100z

[ManilaTC]

Looks like JTWC relocated the center further south, notice the disparity in the previous track.
JMA had a good handle on its center all throughout the initial stages hehe...

[supercane4867]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 NOV 2012 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 4:11:47 N Lon : 155:51:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1006.9mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 3.1 3.3

Center Temp : -76.2C Cloud Region Temp : -62.3C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

[supercane4867]

The CMA forecasts it to become a 45m/s strong typhoon (approx.90kts)

[cycloneye]

Looking more and more impressive as time goes by.

[supercane4867]

Bopha is wrapping up in a hurry


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 NOV 2012 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 4:12:58 N Lon : 155:40:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 /1000.8mb/ 49.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.5

Center Temp : -79.4C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

[cycloneye]

NRL changed to Bopha so expect JTWC to upgrade at 0300z warning.

[euro6208]

The 24th named storm of the season!

i have a feeling this will start rapidly intensifying..

we can all agree that this will develop into a very strong typhoon...

[cycloneye]

The last time a Typhoon appeared on late November at WPAC was in 2009.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 270100
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 AM CHST TUE NOV 27 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA (26W) NEARLY STATIONARY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA
(26W) WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.4 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE
155.8 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NUKUORO
150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
270 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
500 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA (26W) IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOPHA
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...4.4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
155.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 006
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 4.4N 155.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.4N 155.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 4.7N 154.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 4.8N 153.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 4.9N 151.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 5.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 5.1N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 5.7N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 7.0N 138.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 4.5N 155.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTIVE COVER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE
INTENSITY FOR THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS MAKING IT A
TROPICAL STORM. THIS IS BASED ON 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD INDICATING 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT
SOURCE ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE LLCC, PROVIDING
FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (05 TO 10
KNOTS). TS 26W IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND REMAINS ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK
UNDER ITS INFLUENCE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD UNDER THE
IMPROVING STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. A STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF
THE SYSTEM THROUGH TAU 72 IS EXPECTED UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
LOW VWS, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS 26W WILL REMAIN ON A STEADY TRACK
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96. A MORE MERIDIONAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY TAU 120 ALLOWING A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR AS THE STR SHIFTS EASTWARD. INTENSITY WILL
STEADILY INCREASE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD
TRACK, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND ECMF. BOTH INDICATE A MORE WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK INTO THE STR. THIS FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, KEEPING THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
THAN DEPICTED BY GFS AND ECMF. CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS LOW AS THE LLCC REMAINS WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGION OF THE
STR.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

SST gets warmer along the track...



insane amount of potential....