WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

[supercane4867]

Pressure in Chuuk amd Pohnpei has been falling steadily in the past 6 hours

http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/PTKK.html
http://w1.weather.gov/obhistory/PTTP.html

[dexterlabio]

It's interesting how GFS is very consistent with an early recurve scenario. If it weren't performing well I would disregard it right away, but I was impressed on many occasions with the GFS this year so I am putting some weight on their solution.

So now, it's either a very strong STR will dominate and affect its track (Euro, NOGAPS, Canadian) OR a very strong frontal system/digging trough will make way for this storm to recurve right ahead (GFS).

[cycloneye]

WTPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 4.5N 156.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.5N 156.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 5.0N 155.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 5.4N 153.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 5.8N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 6.2N 151.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 7.0N 147.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 8.0N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 9.3N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 4.6N 155.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. //
NNNN

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is the latest public adv from Guam.

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/data/GUM/TCPPQ1

and yes those islands are small, one of them has a population of about 370 people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nukuoro

[RobWESTPACWX]

It's interesting how GFS is very consistent with an early recurve scenario. If it weren't performing well I would disregard it right away, but I was impressed on many occasions with the GFS this year so I am putting some weight on their solution.

So now, it's either a very strong STR will dominate and affect its track (Euro, NOGAPS, Canadian) OR a very strong frontal system/digging trough will make way for this storm to recurve right ahead (GFS).

I just think this area is way to far south to be effected by Mid-lat systems. Its to far south really to develop in to a tropical at that as well. I agree with GFS being the model of choice lately though, this time I think Im going to step away from old reliable.

[RobWESTPACWX]

MIMIC imagery shows clear circulation of 26W. Nice link to check out


http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... npage.html

[mrbagyo]

superb radial outflow.
. euro now pointing this to Bicol peninsula.

here are some destructive late november - early december typhoons that hit the Philippines

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/198722.html.en
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/200621.html.en
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary/wnp/s/200427.html.en

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W (TWENTY-SIX) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 4.7N 155.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 4.7N 155.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 5.1N 154.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 5.4N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 5.7N 151.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 5.9N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 6.3N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 7.4N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 8.7N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 4.8N 155.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHUUK, FSM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

JTWC warning #2 at 0300z: euro6208,Guam is at the edge of cone.

26W is tracking more to the south thus Guam is no longer in the cone...but our neighboring islands might face the brunt...

[dexterlabio]

I just think this area is way to far south to be effected by Mid-lat systems. Its to far south really to develop in to a tropical at that as well. I agree with GFS being the model of choice lately though, this time I think Im going to step away from old reliable.

Thanks for your insights! Well pro mets like you are the ones that can tell when not to follow the models.

[euro6208]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1006.6mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.8 2.8

could this get upgraded to our 24th tropical storm later today?

[euro6208]

TROPICAL STORM WARNING ...NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH ...LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK /LAGOON/ IN CHUUK STATE

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know what population the small island of Yap has? I ask because is one of the islands that may get a direct hit from soon to be named Bopha.

[supercane4867]

Does anyone know what population the small island of Yap has? I ask because is one of the islands that may get a direct hit from soon to be named Bopha.

6300 according to wikipedia

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know what population the small island of Yap has? I ask because is one of the islands that may get a direct hit from soon to be named Bopha.

6300 according to wikipedia

Thank you for the answer.

[RobWESTPACWX]

Here is a look at my video update for today guys, its keys in on the TD about 1 minute in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Edr00TMGnnw

[supercane4867]

Looks like It's trying to build a CDO

[euro6208]

Does anyone know what population the small island of Yap has? I ask because is one of the islands that may get a direct hit from soon to be named Bopha.

6300 according to wikipedia

Thank you for the answer.

that is the 2003 population since then it has increased to over 7300 according to the 2010 census...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 261542
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 AM CHST TUE NOV 27 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W CONTINUING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NUKUORO IN POHNPEI
STATE AND LUKUNOR IN CHUUK STATE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LOSAP AND FOR CHUUK LAGOON ISLANDS IN CHUUK STATE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 4.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 155.1 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH OF NUKUORO
95 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LUKUNOR
215 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LOSAP
260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI
290 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK AND
445 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PULUWAT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH
BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS
MORNING.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...4.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 155.1
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 500 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 800 AM CHST.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

JMA:

TD
Issued at 16:00 UTC, 26 November 2012

<Analyses at 26/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N4°05'(4.1°)
E156°40'(156.7°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 27/15 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N4°05'(4.1°)
E154°55'(154.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)