Here is my early morning cast, hope its useful.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIIR3tNFYm0&feature=g-u[/youtube]
WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 291552
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 AM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN YAP STATE...
RESIDENTS OF NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.4 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
925 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...3.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
147.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
STANKO
WTPQ31 PGUM 291552
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 AM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN YAP STATE...
RESIDENTS OF NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FARAULEP IN YAP STATE.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 147.4 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
385 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
750 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
925 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY
BECOMING A TYPHOON LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...3.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
147.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 AM.
$$
STANKO
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
scary...bopha not strengthening so a more westward track towards the philippines...could this rapidly intensify before landfall? 
we'll see..i hope it's not another Angela or Zeb type of storm...
we'll see..i hope it's not another Angela or Zeb type of storm...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 017
WTPN31 PGTW 292100
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 3.6N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.6N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 3.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 4.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 5.8N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 6.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.8N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 8.9N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 10.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 3.7N 146.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
WTPN31 PGTW 292100
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291800Z --- NEAR 3.6N 146.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.6N 146.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 3.9N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 4.8N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 5.8N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 6.7N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 7.8N 135.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 8.9N 131.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 10.4N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
292100Z POSITION NEAR 3.7N 146.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.
//
Last edited by supercane4867 on Thu Nov 29, 2012 4:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
REGENERATION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 291548Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE 291741Z AMSU PASS AND 291800Z RJTD CENTER FIX
LOCATION, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD
AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING LESS ROBUST DESPITE A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD. THE
SYSTEM IS ABOUT 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS, WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS A VERY FAVORABLE 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. IT
SEEMS THAT THE LOW LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING ITS POTENTIAL
CORIOLIS MAGNITUDE AND THEREFORE LIMITING ANY POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE
BETA PROPAGATION. IN ADDITION TO THESE LIMITING FACTORS SOME SORT OF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER OR NEAR THE LLCC
WHICH MAY BE HINDERING THE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POSSIBLE DIVERGENCE
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE
CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AS
CURRENTLY SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BASICALLY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS WITH THE WBAR,
NOGAPS, AND GFDN DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE JGSM,
ECMWF, AND GFS INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE LATER NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION BASED ON
PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR BROUGHT ON BY A
DEEP, YET BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS
26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITH A FORECAST PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. AFTER THIS TIME ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING
TREND AND THEREFORE IS REFLECTED IN THE TAU 120 FORECAST INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE DEGRADES TO LOW DURING THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEPTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR AT THIS TIME. MODEL
SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY 400NM AT TAU 120 WITH GFDN REMAINING THE
FASTER TRACKER LOCATED OVER THE SULU SEA WHERE THE SLOWER EGRR
TRACKER RESIDES OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
REGENERATION OF CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 291548Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED BY THE 291741Z AMSU PASS AND 291800Z RJTD CENTER FIX
LOCATION, WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM RJTD
AND PGTW/KNES RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE
OUTFLOW IS BECOMING LESS ROBUST DESPITE A POINT SOURCE OVERHEAD. THE
SYSTEM IS ABOUT 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS, WITH LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IS A VERY FAVORABLE 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. IT
SEEMS THAT THE LOW LATITUDE OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING ITS POTENTIAL
CORIOLIS MAGNITUDE AND THEREFORE LIMITING ANY POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE
BETA PROPAGATION. IN ADDITION TO THESE LIMITING FACTORS SOME SORT OF
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE OVER OR NEAR THE LLCC
WHICH MAY BE HINDERING THE OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POSSIBLE DIVERGENCE
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MAY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGE
CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, AS
CURRENTLY SEEN IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK IN AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EASTERN STR. AS THE SYSTEM FINALLY
BEGINS TO GAIN LATITUDE, CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS BASICALLY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN GROUPINGS WITH THE WBAR,
NOGAPS, AND GFDN DEPICTING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE JGSM,
ECMWF, AND GFS INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OFFICIAL
JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE LATER NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTION BASED ON
PREVIOUS MODEL PERFORMANCE AND EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN
THE STR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK
FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR BROUGHT ON BY A
DEEP, YET BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. LIGHT VWS, INCREASED OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SST WILL ALLOW TS
26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITH A FORECAST PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. AFTER THIS TIME ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKENING
TREND AND THEREFORE IS REFLECTED IN THE TAU 120 FORECAST INTENSITY
OF 100 KNOTS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE DEGRADES TO LOW DURING THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEPTH AND POSITION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGHING AND ORIENTATION OF THE STR AT THIS TIME. MODEL
SPREAD IS APPROXIMATELY 400NM AT TAU 120 WITH GFDN REMAINING THE
FASTER TRACKER LOCATED OVER THE SULU SEA WHERE THE SLOWER EGRR
TRACKER RESIDES OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PHILIPPINES.//
NNNN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
Looking a lot better than the past two days. Will JMA upgrade to Severe Tropical Storm on next warning?
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Tropical Storm
JMA Upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm
WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1224 BOPHA (1224) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 03.6N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 04.6N 143.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 020000UTC 05.9N 140.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 07.2N 136.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 300000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1224 BOPHA (1224) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 300000UTC 03.6N 146.3E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 010000UTC 04.6N 143.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 020000UTC 05.9N 140.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 030000UTC 07.2N 136.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =
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supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
Bopha is trying to close up his eyewall, that's a pretty large eye
We should see some real intensification in the next day or two
We should see some real intensification in the next day or two
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139008
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 3.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 4.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 4.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 5.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.3N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.8N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 3.6N 145.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 3.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 3.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 4.0N 144.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 4.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 5.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 6.3N 138.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 7.8N 134.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 9.3N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 11.3N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 3.6N 145.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 730 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 010300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300101
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 AM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
RESIDENTS OF NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...3.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
146.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 300155 AAA
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR WOLEAI
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN YAP STATE...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
RESIDENTS OF YAP ISLAND AND NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA...AS WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
A TYPHOON WATCH FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 11
AM
CHST.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK TAKES BOPHA SOUTH OF NGULU...VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS OF
KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
...WOLEAI AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER LIKELY OVER WOLEAI...BUT
SEAS MAY BE ROUGH ANOTHER DAY OR SO. USE EXTREME CAUTION IN AND NEAR
THE WATER.
...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST TO 30 MPH IN
SHOWERS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST TONIGHT...THEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SHORES THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED AROUND HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
$$
ZIOBRO
WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 292238Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
THE SAME REPORTING AGENCY. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER AND A CONVECTIVE BAND PERSISTING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TS 26W
LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TOWARD THE BASED OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR BROUGHT ON BY A
DEEP, YET BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASED OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILLS ALLOW TS 26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITH
A FORECAST PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TO LOW DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEPTH
AND POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ORIENTATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH FAVOR A TROUGH PATTERN CLOSER
TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS, AND LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
WTPQ31 PGUM 300101
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
1100 AM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
RESIDENTS OF NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU SHOULD
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA...AS WATCHES
MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 1000 AM POSITION...3.8 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
146.2 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 MPH.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 2 PM CHST THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM.
$$
WILLIAMS
000
WTPQ81 PGUM 300155 AAA
HLSPQ1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) LOCAL STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
UPDATED TO CANCEL THE TYPHOON WATCH FOR WOLEAI
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN YAP STATE...
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR
PEOPLE IN WOLEAI IN YAP STATE.
...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
RESIDENTS OF YAP ISLAND AND NGULU IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF
PALAU SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA...AS WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.
A TYPHOON WATCH FOR WOLEAI IN YAP STATE HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 11
AM
CHST.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 1000 AM CHST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 146.2 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF WOLEAI
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FARAULEP
675 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
680 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND
840 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH.
.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK TAKES BOPHA SOUTH OF NGULU...VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS OF
KOROR AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
...WOLEAI AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER LIKELY OVER WOLEAI...BUT
SEAS MAY BE ROUGH ANOTHER DAY OR SO. USE EXTREME CAUTION IN AND NEAR
THE WATER.
...WIND INFORMATION...
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUST TO 30 MPH IN
SHOWERS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EAST TONIGHT...THEN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SHORES THROUGH SATURDAY. COASTAL INUNDATION IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED AROUND HIGH TIDE.
...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM BOPHA LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 3 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.
$$
ZIOBRO
WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR
18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND A 292238Z SSMIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
THE SAME REPORTING AGENCY. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER AND A CONVECTIVE BAND PERSISTING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TS 26W
LIES BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE
SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS IT STEERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE. A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS,
ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TOWARD THE BASED OF THIS DEVELOPING TROUGH AND PASSAGE OVER
VERY WARM WATER, SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE STR BROUGHT ON BY A
DEEP, YET BROAD, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, INCREASED OUTFLOW, AND FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILLS ALLOW TS 26W TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING WITH
A FORECAST PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 96. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES TO LOW DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE DEPTH
AND POSITION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ORIENTATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS, WHICH FAVOR A TROUGH PATTERN CLOSER
TO FORECAST EXPECTATIONS, AND LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN
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NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
severely underestimated...this is already a typhoon...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
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https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
Well...I'm speechless 
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 NOV 2012 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 4:19:57 N Lon : 146:07:49 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.0mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.2 3.2
Center Temp : -38.3C Cloud Region Temp : -53.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 NOV 2012 Time : 023000 UTC
Lat : 4:19:57 N Lon : 146:07:49 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 992.0mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.2 3.2
Center Temp : -38.3C Cloud Region Temp : -53.3C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS
Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
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-
supercane4867
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
euro6208 wrote:severely underestimated...this is already a typhoon...
It has just became a typhoon, I'd say 65kts at most. The JTWC may up it to 60kts in the next advisory
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
000
WTPQ31 PGUM 300336
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTENSIFYING...
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA TRACKING TOWARDS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE
AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
660 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
935 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...3.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 145.7
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM CHST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
$$
WILLIAMS
WTPQ31 PGUM 300336
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262012
200 PM CHST FRI NOV 30 2012
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA (26W) INTENSIFYING...
...TROPICAL STORM BOPHA TRACKING TOWARDS THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NGULU IN YAP STATE AND KOROR
AND KAYANGEL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE
AND SONSOROL IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU.
A TYPHOON WATCH MEANS THAT TYPHOON CONDITIONS INCLUDING SUSTAINED
WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48
HOURS.
AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BOPHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 3.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7 DEGREES
EAST.
THIS IS ABOUT 650 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NGULU
660 MILES SOUTHEAST OF YAP
815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR PALAU AND KAYANGEL
935 MILES EAST OF SONSOROL.
TROPICAL STORM BOPHA IS NOW MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 65 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
BOPHA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TYPHOON
BY TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES
FROM THE CENTER.
REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...3.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND 145.7
DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 11 MPH WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 PM CHST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 8 PM THIS EVENING.
$$
WILLIAMS
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
closeup of bopha's eye...i'd say 80 knots...
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
-
mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3614
- Age: 31
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
euro6208 wrote:
closeup of bopha's eye...i'd say 80 knots...
I'd say an entry level cat 1 for NOW
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3406
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
I am just waiting for it to lift a bit more in latitude coz it will remain lopsided and not that impressive if it stays way below 8N. Yeah but the recent sat imagery hints an eye structure and that's pretty impressive for a TS already IMO...plus the fact that it's not really getting enough energy with it staying at low latitude (lack of Coriolis).
There is also an evident eye structure on IR satloop too. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html
There is also an evident eye structure on IR satloop too. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
stormstrike
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
Latest GFS model skirting east coast of the Philippines then an awkward U-turn way up north just east of Cagayan-Isabela area..
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Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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-
stormstrike
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 159
- Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:37 am
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
BTW it's almost similar to the latest ECMWF model.. by day 5, landfall on the eastern seaboards of PH
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
then by end of forecast.. just east of Northern Luzon coastline...
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
then by end of forecast.. just east of Northern Luzon coastline...
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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-
RobWESTPACWX
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm
Official Announcement from Palau National Emergency Management Office:
The public is urged to tune in to radio and television stations for emergency information and instruction, particularly OTv, T8AA/Eco Paradise, and PNCC Channel 1.
NEC Chairperson/NEMO Director Alonz Kyota has confirmed that the following information can be shared with our members.
CONDITION 3
Typhoon Condition 3 will be declared no later than Saturday, December 1. The announcement will be dependent upon two things: 1) If the storm speeds up and is expected to reach Palau in 48 hours or 2) if it comes within 300 miles of Palau.
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH.
The Palau National Weather Service has advised that Tropical Storm Bopha's closest point of approach will be 39 miles from Koror on December 3 at 1:00am local time. The approximate sustained winds at that time will be 115MPH with gusts up to 145MPH.
SCHOOLS
The Ministry of Education will announce that schools will be open one-half day tomorrow, Friday, 11/30/2012 and will be CLOSED on Monday, December 3, after which assessments will be made and further instructions will follow.
NEMO will issue an official list of shelters for community members to utilize should they feel their homes will not withstand typhoon force winds, right now the following schools have been identified as shelters:
Palau High School.
Koror Elementary School.
Midzenty High School.
Maris Stella High School.
All outlying states' elementary schools.
WATER
The Bureau of Public Works does not intend to shut off water supply, and water will be available until such time it will either be contaminated or pipes are damaged, which will require the water to be shut off.
WE WILL MAKE AN EFFORT TO SHARE INFORMATION WITH YOU AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
To keep track of the storm's progress, please log on to the following sites:
The public is urged to tune in to radio and television stations for emergency information and instruction, particularly OTv, T8AA/Eco Paradise, and PNCC Channel 1.
NEC Chairperson/NEMO Director Alonz Kyota has confirmed that the following information can be shared with our members.
CONDITION 3
Typhoon Condition 3 will be declared no later than Saturday, December 1. The announcement will be dependent upon two things: 1) If the storm speeds up and is expected to reach Palau in 48 hours or 2) if it comes within 300 miles of Palau.
CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH.
The Palau National Weather Service has advised that Tropical Storm Bopha's closest point of approach will be 39 miles from Koror on December 3 at 1:00am local time. The approximate sustained winds at that time will be 115MPH with gusts up to 145MPH.
SCHOOLS
The Ministry of Education will announce that schools will be open one-half day tomorrow, Friday, 11/30/2012 and will be CLOSED on Monday, December 3, after which assessments will be made and further instructions will follow.
NEMO will issue an official list of shelters for community members to utilize should they feel their homes will not withstand typhoon force winds, right now the following schools have been identified as shelters:
Palau High School.
Koror Elementary School.
Midzenty High School.
Maris Stella High School.
All outlying states' elementary schools.
WATER
The Bureau of Public Works does not intend to shut off water supply, and water will be available until such time it will either be contaminated or pipes are damaged, which will require the water to be shut off.
WE WILL MAKE AN EFFORT TO SHARE INFORMATION WITH YOU AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.
To keep track of the storm's progress, please log on to the following sites:
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