WPAC: BOPHA - Remnants

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Re:

#741 Postby francis327 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:21 am

dexterlabio wrote:for all our experts, what do you think about the chance of Bopha affecting the Philippines again? Actually I was thinking the same idea as ozonepete the past days, but that idea is only if Bopha regained a stronger intensity and then would be steered northeastwards. People in the northern Philippines probably thinks this storm is over now as we aid the typhoon victims from the south.


What concerns most is amount of rain pouring over Northern Luzon instead of the storm intensity. Forecast as of now indicates that this storm "might" not be directly go into Northern Luzon but the moisture absorb into the storm will definitely means more rain over Northern Luzon especially on the east board.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm

#742 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:41 am

^yeah rain is always the concern for the folks in the Philippines. but as this storms restrengthens, there will be a stronger steering in the upper levels causing it to move along a more definite path, and this storm is located along the western periphery of the ridge, so that path could either be to the north or northeast.
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#743 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:51 am

hmm i did a research and the only other tropical cyclone that tracked across Mindanao and recurved to the NE is Dot, but was only a Tropical Storm at peak strength and it happened during May. am trying to know if a track like that happened before because it is very unusual for me.
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Meow

Re:

#744 Postby Meow » Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:25 am

francis327 wrote:JMA somewhat have it continue to weaken in 24 hours

WTPQ50 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1224 BOPHA (1224) UPGRADED FROM STS

But it is now a typhoon, right?
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Meow

#745 Postby Meow » Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:30 am

Bopha is incredibly strong in the South China Sea, especially in December.

Image

Image

JMA: 70 knots
JTWC: 80 knots
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Meow

#746 Postby Meow » Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:54 am

The JMA reports that Bopha’s wind speed intensified to 80 knots at 09Z... The agency seldom changes intensity at 09Z.

Image

TY 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 09:45 UTC, 7 December 2012

<Analyses at 07/09 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°05'(15.1°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/09 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 09/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°50'(16.8°)
E116°55'(116.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 10/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E117°35'(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)

The JMA has to handle both Bopha and the earthquake right now. How busy people in the JMA are!
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Severe Tropical Storm

#747 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2012 4:58 am

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 047
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 26W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 15.6N 116.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 16.5N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 17.0N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.0N 118.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 15.8N 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 14.5N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 12.6N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 115.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNI
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I don't believe it

#748 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Dec 07, 2012 7:54 am

This is nuts, Typhoon Bopha looks like its undergoing RI (most likely explosive intensification) and I estimate the strength currently at 135 knots! This is an unbelievable comeback from being near dead. I don't know if I've ever seen such a comeback like that. It reminds me a bit like Hurricane Micheal in the Atlantic this year because of the forecasts. Its now got an extremely impressive structure with thick bands of -75ºC cloud tops surrounding the eye that is pretty much cleared and circular. Too bad the NRL is down again :( . When I was writing this I first was going to write 120 knots for appearance but since then it looks very close to category 5 status once again. I was going to mock that raw T number from ADT of 7.0 (hours ago) but now it certainly fits!

It would be ridiculous if this hit the northern part of the Philippines now, what super typhoon has done that!? For those agencies to get the forecast this close so wrong (off by over 100 knots is possible) is shocking. Instead of slowly weakening and then dissipating it just went through one of the fastest rates of strengthening I've seen this year. That's why I love the science :cheesy: .

ozonepete wrote:The latest JTWC forecast track for Bopha has it slowing down and gradually weakening over the next few days in the South China Sea (first attachment below.) But I don't see it that way at all. Look at the latest satellite presentation - it sure looks to be intensifying again and the CIMSS ADT numbers are already at 70 mph and 991 mb (not shown). With high SSTs and pretty low shear (attached) I can see Bopha easily getting back up to a 100 knot typhoon which would put it in the 960 mb pressure area. Now look at the CIMSS steering charts based on strength: for a weak TC, pressure at or greater than 1000mb, you can see weak steering currents and then the JTWC track justifies. But the CIMSS steering winds chart for a 100 knot TC with a central pressure anywhere near 960 mb indicates a path to the north and northeast. Supporting that steering scenario are the appearance of the jet stream on the satellite image posted here and the upper air progs (not shown). So it sure looks like Bopha could do a pretty sharp recurve right into the northwestern Philippine coast given the strengthening that is visible on the latest satellite images already and the potential for more strengthening given the favorable environment it's in.

This is 100% spot on. Here Bopha was right on death's doorstep...
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Meow

#749 Postby Meow » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:00 am

The JMA reported that Bopha is stronger than Vicente in the South China Sea. :eek:

Image

TY 1224 (BOPHA)
Issued at 12:50 UTC, 7 December 2012

<Analyses at 07/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N15°25'(15.4°)
E116°00'(116.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°20'(17.3°)
E117°00'(117.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE Slowly
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05'(17.1°)
E117°50'(117.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°20'(16.3°)
E117°55'(117.9°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
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Re:

#750 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:00 am

Meow wrote:Bopha is incredibly strong in the South China Sea, especially in December.
Image
JMA: 70 knots
JTWC: 80 knots


OMG!!!I never expected Bopha could become like this in the S.China Sea, that's at least 120kts :eek:
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#751 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Dec 07, 2012 8:32 am

i hate it when storms like this go in a weak steering environment, the more they become unpredictable. and it gives me a bad flashback of Parma in 2009.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#752 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 10:50 am

:double: killer storm bopha strengthens yet again to a category 3!
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#753 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 10:53 am

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 943.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

supports at least a category 4 typhoon....!
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#754 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 10:58 am

Image

Category 3 bopha! and strengthening to a category 4?


WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 048
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 15.4N 116.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 116.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 16.5N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 17.2N 117.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 17.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.6N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 14.2N 115.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 12.3N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 116.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 29
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN


PROGNOSTIC REASONING


WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 48//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MAINTAINS AN 11NM EYE. A 071145Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION COMPLETELY WRAPPING AROUND
THE EYE AND A SMALL BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110
KNOTS BASED UPON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM KNES, PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TY 26W HAS MAINTAINED A POINT SOURCE ANTI-
CYCLONE OVER ITSELF WHICH IS PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A STRONG JET MAX TO THE NORTHEAST LOCATED SOUTH
OF JAPAN. LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) CONTINUES TO
ACT UPON THE SYSTEM. TY 26W IS TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FORECASTED
INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN INCREASED DUE TO THE CONTINUED RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST ALONG
THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER TAU
36, THE STEERING WILL BECOME VERY WEAK AS A COL BETWEEN TWO DEEP-
LAYERED STRS DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. BY TAU 48, THE WESTERN LOBE
OF THE STR WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE, ALONG WITH
THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS, DRIVING THE SYSTEM
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, PICKING UP SPEED. INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS TY 26W CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 24, TY 26W WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL PROCEED SOUTHWEST PICKING UP SPEED
AS IT TRACKS ALONG WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS A SURGE IN THE MONSOON
FLOW BRINGS IN COLD DRY CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR SLOW WEAKENING TO 50 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODELS NOW ALL
SHOW A SLOW LOOP IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH A LARGE VARIANCE IN
THE EXTENT AND THE TIMING OF THE LOOP. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST
LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, BUT FAVORS THE
NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTION, DUE TO CONSENSUS BEING PULLED NORTH BY
WBAR. DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, LARGE VARIANCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS, AND UNDETERMINED INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON
SURGE, OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#755 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:02 am

This has never happened before- A typhoon undergoing RI in the month of December at S.China Sea. Late-season storms tend to weaken and dissipate there before they even reach land. What a such amazing storm Bopha is!
Image
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#756 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:05 am

it would be outrageous if bopha makes landfall over luzon...
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#757 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:28 am

I can't even imagine if there's a storm like this in the GOM, in December :double:

Image
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#758 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:35 am

supercane4867 wrote:I can't even imagine if there's a storm like this in the GOM, in December :double:



that is why west pacific typhoons are the greatest and strongest tropical cyclones on earth!
Last edited by euro6208 on Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: BOPHA - Typhoon

#759 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:35 am

Image

despite a moderate environment, bopha has gone through super explosive intensification...unbelievable for a storm in the south china sea and in december! when was the last time we had a strong typhoon in december in the SCS???

based on this imagery, well defined warm eye with a very cold eyewall and surrounding shield, bopha peaked at 145 knots!!!
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#760 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 1:18 pm

JTWC just changed the intensity of the last advisory, Bopha was a 115kt CAT4 at its peak in S.China Sea
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