SIO: Claudia - Post-Tropical

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SIO: Claudia - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:44 pm

Southwest of Sumatra

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Last edited by supercane4867 on Sat Dec 08, 2012 3:48 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#2 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 03, 2012 7:24 pm

Guys Bopha is impressive but it's not the only thing going on in the world, 98S is looking great and may upgrade to medium soon

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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:48 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.2S 88.0E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 825 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A
031410Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE, SHOW DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THIS LLCC IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SUMATRA
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE SOUTHERN INDIAN OCEAN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LLCC SURROUNDED BY ENHANCED
EQUATORWARD (20-25 KNOT) WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH AND GRADIENT
INDUCED EASTERLIES, FROM TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE, TO THE SOUTH. THE
850 MB VORTICITY ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THE PRESENCE OF A DEFINED LLCC AS
WELL AS SHOWING A WEAKER CIRCULATION APPROXIMATELY 750 NM TO THE
WEST. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS LOCATED BENEATH A
REGION OF DIRECTIONALLY DIVERGENT FLOW, HOWEVER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR
REMAINS STRONG (30 KNOTS AND GREATER) DUE TO ITS POSITION
APPROXIMATELY SIX DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT RANGING FROM
27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND STRONG LEVEL OF VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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#4 Postby Grifforzer » Tue Dec 04, 2012 1:42 pm

RSMC Reunion

The low level circulation center is located near 8.7S 85.6E at 1000 AM UTC, exposed East of the main convective activity. A burst of convection is developing close to the center since 0800 AM UTC. mean sea level pressure is estimated at 1001 hPa, maximum winds at 20-25 knots near the center, locally 30 knots far from the center northward in the monsoon flow and southward due to the gradient effect with the subtropical high pressure. The low level circulation center is moving southward at about 10 knots and it has accelerated during the past 6 hours.

Lower levels environmental conditions are favorable, system being well supplied on both faces, equatorward and poleward. Energetic oceanic content is favorable too. In the upper levels, the diffluent Easterly wind shear is still strong (30-40 knots according to CIMSS data), system being located north of an upper tropospheric ridge.

On and after tonight, system may track south-westward according to the available numerical weather prediction models. The easterly upper level wind shear is forecast to remain moderate to strong until Thursday, and should weaken sharply beyond. However, during the next 48 hours, system should deepen progressively with the lowering of the relative wind shear when the system will track westward. It should intensify more rapidly beyond Thursday.

No other suspect area over the basin.

For the next 24 hours, potential for the development of a tropical depression is good.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#5 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:33 pm

T1.5

TPXS10 PGTW 041839
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 98S (EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 04/1730Z
C. 9.0S
D. 83.0E
E. FIVE/MET7
F. T1.5/1.5 STT: S0.0/06HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. A .30 WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#6 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 04, 2012 10:35 pm

Center exposed

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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:01 am

:lol:

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2S 84.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 82.8E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050247Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOW PERSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS RANGING FROM 1004 TO 1006 MB SUGGEST PRESSURE NEAR THE LLCC IS NEAR 1003 MB. SCATTEROMETRY DATA SUPPORTS A 25 KNOT INTENSITY, AND SLIGHTLY WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COUPLED WITH INCREASED DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW HAVE NOW ALLOWED CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IN A REGION OF DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED LLCC AND INCREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#8 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 10:06 pm

Image

WTXS21 PGTW 060230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2S 79.6E TO 15.1S 75.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 042330Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 79.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S
79.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9S 79.0E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVING
ORGANIZATION. A RECENT 051808Z OSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER RANGED FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH REGIONS OF STRONGER GRADIENT
INDUCED FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC HAS STARTED TO TRACK UNDER THE
AXIS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE (27-29 DEGREES
CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE LLCC,
DECREASING VWS, AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AROUND THE STR,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
070230Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#9 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:20 pm

TXXS22 KNES 052343
TCSSIO
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98S)
B. 05/2330Z
C. 11.2S
D. 79.4E
E. THREE/MET-7
F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS
G. IR/EIR/TMI
H. REMARKS...3-4 TENTHS BANDING ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON MET.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
05/1811Z 11.4S 80.1E TMI
...NEWHARD
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Re: SIO: INVEST 98S

#10 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:10 am

** WTIO30 FMEE 060626 ***

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 4

2.A POSITION 2012/12/06 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 78.2 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/12/06 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 76.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2012/12/07 06 UTC: 14.1 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/12/07 18 UTC: 14.0 S / 72.9 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/12/08 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/12/08 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2012/12/09 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Storm

#11 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:55 am

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
WTXS31 PGTW 061500
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 76.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 76.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.9S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.5S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.0S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.7S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.9S 73.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.7S 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 76.5E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 050221Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTXS21 PGTW 050230 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 9 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
//
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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:05 am

ZCZC 508
WTIO30 FMEE 061210
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/4/20122013
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4
2.A POSITION 2012/12/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 77.0 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/12/07 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.4 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/12/07 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/12/08 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 72.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/12/08 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 72.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/12/09 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/12/09 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 72.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/12/10 12 UTC: 17.4 S / 71.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/12/11 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 71.4 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI = 2.5-
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF A WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON IT
S BOTH SIDES, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED.
SYSTEM SHOWS AN IRREGULAR CDO PATTERN (1.2 TO 1.4 DG DIAMETER) SINCE 0600Z ON METEOSAT7 VISIBLE CH
ANNEL.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRA
CK GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ON SATURDAY, STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN.
THEN ON AND AFTER SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARDS AND TO PRODUCE A NORT
HERLY STEERING FLOW.
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS AFOREMENTION
ED MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE UNTIL SU
NDAY LATE. THIS SCHEDULE SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGULARLY INTENSIFY AND TO REACH TROPICAL CYCL
ONE STAGE ON SATURDAY LATE AND MAYBE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE ON SUNDAY LATE.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT AND NORTH-WEST
ERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REGULARLY STRENGTHEN. SYSTEM SHOULD THEREFORE BEGIN ITS EXT
RA-TROPICALIZATION.
NNNN
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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 4:52 pm

TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S

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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:52 pm

TPXS10 PGTW 070021 COR

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 13.4S

D. 76.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .95 FRAG WRAP YIELDS A DT OF 3.0.
PT AGREES; MET WAS 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
06/2059Z 13.1S 76.6E MMHS
06/2134Z 13.3S 76.7E MMHS
06/2202Z 13.2S 76.3E SSMI


LONG
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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:57 pm

REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 76.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH OVERALL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED UPON THE EIR AND A 061053Z SSMI 85 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED UPON THE OVERALL IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW,
KNES AND FMEE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LLCC IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 03S IS
FORECASTED TO GENERALLY TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE. PAST TAU 36, TC 03S WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
STEERING RIDGE BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS
OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE WESTERLIES. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DIVERGES SLIGHTLY
WITH THE EXTENT OF THE SOUTHERN TURN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO MULTI-MODEL GUIDANCE WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PAST TAU 36.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 9 FEET. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
050221Z DEC 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050230)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
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#16 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:15 am

ZCZC 680
WTIO30 FMEE 070637
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/4/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CLAUDIA)
2.A POSITION 2012/12/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.0 S / 75.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :57 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 90
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/12/07 18 UTC: 14.2 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2012/12/08 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2012/12/08 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/12/09 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/12/09 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/12/10 06 UTC: 16.8 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/12/11 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 74.0 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/12/12 06 UTC: 24.1 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0
THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY, IT SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN O
N VIS IMAGERY AT 0.7Ao ON SPIRAL LOG. LATEST AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES (SAB AT 0530
Z, PGTW AT 0230Z) GIVE A VMAX RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 KT. ADT, THAT BETTER PINPOINT THE CENTER SINCE
0230Z, HAS A 3 HOURLY MEAN TNUM AT 2.9. CONSIDERING ALL ABOVE, FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, SYSTEM CONTINU TO TRACK G
LOBALLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS TODAY.
TOMORROW, STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARDS AND STREN
GTHEN, PRODUCING A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS AFOREMENTION
ED MID LEVEL RIDGE.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE UNTIL SU
NDAY OR VERY FAVOURABLE DUE TO TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS ON SATURDAY. THIS SCHEDULE SHOULD ALLOW THE SY
STEM TO REGULARLY INTENSIFY AND TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. LA
TEST OBJECTIVE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES (00Z RUN OF ALADIN-REUNION AND STIPS SUITE OF 00Z) SUGGEST A MA
X INTENSITY IN THE 70-80 KT RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE THIS ESTIMATION
AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT ASSOCIATED WIT
H STRONGER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD START BY THAT TIME . AT THE END OF THE FORE
CAST PERIOD (TUESDAY -WEDNESDAY), THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICALIZATION.
NNNN
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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby Crostorm » Fri Dec 07, 2012 3:21 am

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Re: SIO: 03S - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:01 am

Image


WTXS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 75.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 75.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.6S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.4S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 16.1S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.1S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.3S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.2S 74.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.7S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 14.3S 75.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A
WELL DEFINED YET SLIGHTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED UPON THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LLCC READILY APPARENT IN THE MSI WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED UPON
CONGRUENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AXIS WHICH IS PROVIDING FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC
03S IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY TRACK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS THE CURRENT STEERING STR RE-ORIENTS AND BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL. AFTER TAU 12, TC 03S WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE DEEP
LAYERED STR AND PICK UP SPEED AS INTENSITIES SLOWLY INCREASE UNDER
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT
TAU 120. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY IN THE MERIDIONAL RE-
ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR CAUSING THEM TO VARY ON TRACK SPEED
AND THE EXTENT OF THE POLEWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS.
THESE LARGE VARIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO LEND TO LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS
16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN


TPXS10 PGTW 071500

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 14.1S

D. 75.3E

E. FIVE/MET7

F. T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .60 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT INDICATE A 2.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/1002Z 13.9S 76.0E MMHS
07/1037Z 14.1S 75.8E SSMI
07/1232Z 14.1S 75.6E SSMS
07/1243Z 14.0S 75.6E SSMS


CASPER
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:17 am

Tropical Cyclone Claudia(03S)
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 11:21 am

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