SIO: Claudia - Post-Tropical

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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Storm

#21 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 2:15 pm

Upgraded to STS

ZCZC 440
WTIO30 FMEE 071823
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/4/20122013
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CLAUDIA)
2.A POSITION 2012/12/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 75.3 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :32 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/12/08 06 UTC: 14.3 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/12/08 18 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/12/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 74.6 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/12/09 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.0 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/12/10 06 UTC: 17.3 S / 75.2 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/12/10 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 75.3 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/12/11 18 UTC: 23.6 S / 74.9 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2012/12/12 18 UTC: 28.2 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=4.0+
DESPITE A STILL EXISTING NORTH-EASTERLY WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT (REFER TO CIMMS DATA) AND AN UPPER LE
VEL OUTFLOW RESTRICTED IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE(IRWP METEOSAT7 IMAGERY) CLAUDIA KEEPS ON R
APIDLY STRENGTHENING (+1T/12H).
IT SHOWS NOW SINCE 1330Z A RAGGED EYE ON INFRARED IMAGERY WITH A WEAKENESS IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QU
ADRANT (RF TO SSMIS F18 1501Z).
SINCE 1630Z EYE IS HOWEVER COOLING AND TEMPORARILY DISAPPEARING UNTIL 1730Z ON INFRARED IMAGERY.
THE MENTIONNED FINAL T-NUMBER IS AN AVERAGE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT EXTENSIONS HAS BEEN RECALIBRATED IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE THANKS TO
THE PARTIAL ASCAT 1649Z SWATH.
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARDS MOTION AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS COLLAPS
ING TO ITS SOUTH. STEERING FLOW BECOMES WEAK. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLO
W WESTWARDS DRIFT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND NOR
TH-EAST OF CLAUDIA AND STRENGTHEN, PRODUCING A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THIS AFOREMENTION
ED MID LEVEL RIDGE. A SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TREND, SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS, IS NOW REFLECTED IN T
HE CURRENT FORECAST.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE UNTIL SU
NDAY OR VERY FAVOURABLE DUE TO TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS ON SATURDAY. THIS SCHEDULE SHOULD ALLOW THE SY
STEM TO REGULARLY INTENSIFY.
LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMERICAL GUIDANCES (00Z RUN OF ALADIN-REUNION AND STIPS SUITE OF 06Z) STILL SUGG
EST A MAX INTENSITY IN THE 70-80 KT RANGE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENT FORECAST IS JUST ABO
VE THIS ESTIMATION AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT ASSOCIATED WIT
H STRONGER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD START BY THAT TIME . EXTRATROPICAL PROCESS
IS EXPECTED TO START BY LATE TUESDAY.
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Severe Tropical Storm

#22 Postby euro6208 » Fri Dec 07, 2012 10:19 pm

Image




WTXS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 75.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 75.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.3S 74.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.3S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.2S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4S 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 25.8S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 31.4S 80.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 75.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT
SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND A 072354Z SSMIS PASS. THE
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE. TC 03S HAS CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS. RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A DEVELOPING EYE
FEATURE ALSO EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY,
INCLUDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO
AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE PICKED UP BY A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE BY
TAU 12. TC 03S WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT INTERACTS
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR-TERM, SUPPORTED BY STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. AFTER THE SYSTEM CRESTS THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS, PASSAGE OVER
COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN
STEADY WEAKENING. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST, WITH EACH DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
ORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 080000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z AND 090300Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Severe Tropical Storm

#23 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 12:06 am

TPXS10 PGTW 080316

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA)

B. 08/0230Z

C. 14.3S

D. 75.0E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.0/5.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. A MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
AND EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS A DT OF 5.0. PT AGREES AND MET IS 4.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/2124Z 14.1S 75.3E MMHS
07/2354Z 14.1S 75.2E SSMS


NEWCOMER
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#24 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 1:32 am

That suggests an intensity of about 85-90 kt.
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Severe Tropical Storm

#25 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:13 am

ZCZC 395
WTIO30 FMEE 081244
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/4/20122013
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CLAUDIA)
2.A POSITION 2012/12/08 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 74.6 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 953 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 220 SW: 330 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/12/09 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 74.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/12/09 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/12/10 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/12/10 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.9 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/12/11 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.4 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2012/12/11 12 UTC: 21.4 S / 73.1 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/12/12 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 74.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/12/13 12 UTC: 33.3 S / 81.0 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=5.5-
SHORTLY AFTER 0600Z, CLAUDIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THEN DT HAS STABILISED AROUND 5.5. AFTER 0
930Z, DVORAK SIGNATURE HAS DEGRADED. FROM 1100Z, DT HAS AGAIN IMPROVED AND HAS REACHED 6.5 JUST AT
1200Z. 6 HOURS AVERAGE DT IS 5.5-. CURRENT INTENSITY IS FIXED AT 85KT JUST BELOW THE INTENSE TROP
ICAL CYCLONE STAGE THAT SHOULD BE ACHIEVED SO IMMINENT.
THE SYSTEM KEEP A SLOWLY WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK AS STEERING MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW REMAINS WEAK.
IN THIS CONTEXT, CLAUDIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS DRIFT TODAY. EXCEPT ARPEGE, NWP MODELS ARE IN GO
OD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SUNDAY, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXISTING EAST OF
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN, PRODUCING A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE CLAUDIA SHOUL
D TRACK SOUTHWARD.
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP ON BEING FAVOURABLE UNTIL SU
NDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (ALADIN 00Z AND STIPS 06Z) SUGGEST A M
AXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE RANGE OF 90/100 KT WITHIN SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
ON AND AFTER MONDAY, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARD BY GETTING AROUND MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURES AND SO TO EVOLVE OVER MARGINAL HEAT OCEANIC CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER VERTIC
AL NORTHERLY WINDSHEAR. A WEAKENING TREND MIGHT START BY THAT TIME. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDA
Y, SYSTEM SHOULD CURVE SOUTH-EASTWARD AND START ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL PROCESS WITH WINDS THAT COULD R
EMAIN STRONG.
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:15 am

Eye showing up

Image
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:55 am

Image

Powerful category 3 cyclone claudia...


WTXS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.5S 74.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5S 74.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.3S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6S 74.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.1S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.8S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.2S 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 29.3S 77.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 36.1S 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 74.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS WITH IMPROVED CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10-NM ROUND
EYE, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES
TO THE SOUTH. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD AS IT TRACKS
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC
03S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU
24 BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER
SST. AFTER TAU 72, TC 03S WILL TRACK OVER VERY COOL SST (LESS THAN
24C) AND WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. TC 03S IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 96 AND SHOULD COMPLETE
ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THE JTWC FORECAST IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 32 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z AND 091500Z.//
NNNN
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#28 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 12:01 pm

Luckily no land is in the way.
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 3:45 pm

Claudia is having some great time for sure

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 DEC 2012 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 14:43:44 S Lon : 74:32:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 946.0mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -23.8C Cloud Region Temp : -72.4C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE
Image
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 3:47 pm

Already reached intense strength

WTIO30 FMEE 081845
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/4/20122013
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 4 (CLAUDIA)
2.A POSITION 2012/12/08 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6 S / 74.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR
DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :22 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 220 SW: 300 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 180 SW: 220 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/12/09 06 UTC: 15.2 S / 74.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2012/12/09 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 74.2 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2012/12/10 06 UTC: 17.1 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2012/12/10 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 73.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2012/12/11 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/12/11 18 UTC: 22.7 S / 73.0 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/12/12 18 UTC: 29.5 S / 75.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
120H: 2012/12/13 18 UTC: 34.1 S / 82.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby euro6208 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:57 pm

Image

claudia with 105 knot 1 min ...


WTXS31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 15.0S 74.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 74.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.0S 74.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.4S 74.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.2S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 21.4S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 26.4S 75.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 32.1S 80.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A WELL-FORMED EYE THAT HAS NOW
EXPANDED TO APPROXIMATELY 15 NM IN DIAMETER. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE. THE
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 TO 115 KNOTS FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
NEARLY UNDER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH WEAK (05-10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.
THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS, AFTER WHICH RAPIDLY DECREASING SST VALUES AND
INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL
START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 72, TC 03S WILL BEGIN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
POLEWARD OF 25 DEGREES SOUTH. EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 34
FEET.NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z AND 100300Z.
//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 08, 2012 10:59 pm

euro6208 wrote:claudia with 105 knot 1 min ...


It was 110kt, now weakening
Image
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#33 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:50 am

Possible EWRC

Image
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#34 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 2:22 pm

Category 4-equivalent from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

Image
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#35 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Dec 09, 2012 3:45 pm

TXXS22 KNES 091808
TCSSIO

A. 03S (CLAUDIA)

B. 09/1730Z

C. 15.8S

D. 74.2E

E. ONE/MET-7

F. T6.0/6.0[/size]/D1.0/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE PAST 6HRS WITH
A DT INCREASE FROM 5.0 TO 6.5 HOWEVER FT AND CI EQUAL 6.0 DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS. SYSTEM HAS AN OW EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED BY WHITE. FT
IS BASED ON CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SWANSON
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#36 Postby greenkat » Sun Dec 09, 2012 5:27 pm

I know someone named Claudia :lol:
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Hope this helped ;)

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#37 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 5:48 pm

Looks to be about 120 kt based on all that data.
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:40 pm

dvorak down to 5.5 and eye becoming cloud filled...looks to be 105 knot right now...
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:45 am

Image


WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 17.6S 73.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 73.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.3S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.3S 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.7S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.6S 75.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 32.2S 80.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 37.7S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 73.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TC 03S HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A 10-NM EYE, THEREFORE,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 105 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT. TC 03S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND TO
ACCELERATE AS IT ENTERS MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR, WHICH INDICATES A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD
TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. TC 03S SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 DUE
TO COOL SST AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 60, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT
BY TAU 96. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT TC 03S WILL WEAKEN
BELOW 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO COMPLETING ETT DUE TO VERY COLD SST (LESS
THAN 20C BY TAU 72) AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOTS).
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:17 am

Image
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