SIO: Claudia - Post-Tropical

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Hurricane_Luis
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Storm

#41 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:22 pm

Intense Tropical Cyclone Claudia

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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#42 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:37 pm

Cool SSTs ahead
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#43 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 4:40 pm

Continues to weaken and expect to become ex-tropical by 96HR

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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#44 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:10 am

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WTXS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 73.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 73.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 22.5S 73.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 25.1S 73.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 28.1S 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 31.7S 78.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 73.1E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 775 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEEN
STEADILY DECLINING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LLCC SHOWS
INDICATIONS OF AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWARD. AN OLDER 110438Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED WINDS ALONG THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM WERE AT STORM FORCE INTENSITIES, WITH
DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES SUPPORTING THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) HAVE BEEN DECREASING QUICKLY AS TC
03S TRACKS SOUTHWARD, AND ARE CURRENTLY NEAR 24 TO 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE (20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOP SHOWS DRY
AIR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO
WRAP TOWARDS THE CENTER. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED STR TOWARDS THE MID-
LATITUDES, WHERE INCREASING INTERACTION STARTS THE EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION PROCESS BY TAU 36. THE STEADY DECREASE IN SSTS AND
INCREASE IN VWS, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE MID-LATITUDES, WILL
LEAD TO THE FULL TRANSITION OF TC 03S TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY
TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EGRR TRACKER, WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE
WESTERN MOST OUTLIER. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT HIGH CONFIDENCE
REMAINS IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED JUST EAST
AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
120300Z AND 121500Z.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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euro6208
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Intense Tropical Cyclone

#45 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:04 pm

Image


WTXS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 27.6S 75.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 27.6S 75.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 30.2S 77.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 28.3S 75.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S
(CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1215 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
RECENT INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LACK OF
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND INCREASING INTERACTON WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE, THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/


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