ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#1 Postby tolakram » Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:11 pm

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201211301752
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2012, DB, O, 2012113012, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912012
AL, 91, 2012113012, , BEST, 0, 247N, 429W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Image

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012

CORRECTED TO ADD SYSTEM

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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#2 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:26 pm

Valarie in the making? :D
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#3 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:39 pm

I hope! It would be funny cause my sisters name is Valerie! :lol:
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#4 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:01 pm

Well organized already. Wouldn't be surprised to see this designated overnight. It should be around for a few more days if not.
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#5 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:20 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:40 pm

Up to 30%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

THIS IS THE LAST REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OF THE 2012
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE NEXT REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON JUNE 1 2013. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED IF A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM
FORMS DURING THE OFF-SEASON.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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#7 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:54 pm

I'd say it should be higher than that.

Could the cold air to the northwest influence this storm like it did with Sandy?
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#8 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:03 pm

The 0Z SHIPS analyzed with 57 knots of wind shear atop the circulation of 91L. Combine that with DMIN and the storm isn't expected, nor does, look very healthy right now. However, the storm has a few more days to organize over sea surface temperatures warmer than 20C and lowering shear down (down to 30 knots by 48 hours). The SHIPS brings the storm up to near hurricane intensity before transitioning it into an extratropical cyclone between 72 and 96 hours out. As of right now, I'd say this has a 50% chance of becoming Valerie.

On the heels of Valerie, the GFS and others forecast a similar system to develop in five short days. And yes, it is warm-core. But that is for another thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 1:02 am

Up to 40%

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1350 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ANOTHER SPECIAL
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY
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Re:

#10 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Dec 01, 2012 3:52 am

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:On the heels of Valerie, the GFS and others forecast a similar system to develop in five short days. And yes, it is warm-core. But that is for another thread.


That would be interesting if after the official end of the 2012 season, we get Valerie and William.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:37 am

Up to 50%


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
830 AM EST SAT DEC 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1150 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW
IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IF NECESSARY...ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 01, 2012 8:50 am

The low continues exposed but the big question is will the shear go down to allow 91L to develop before the front gets to it?

Image
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#13 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:32 am

How will the front play into the development? Could it allow for rapid deepening on transition?
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Re:

#14 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:54 am

CrazyC83 wrote:How will the front play into the development? Could it allow for rapid deepening on transition?


The front will shear it apart and absorb it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 01, 2012 7:19 pm

No change!

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
715 PM EST SAT DEC 1 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 1080 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE
THIS MORNING. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...HOWEVER...IS STILL
POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

IF NECESSARY...ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE
ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
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#16 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Dec 01, 2012 9:18 pm

Big burst of convection firing atop 91L's low-level circulation. If it can persist and expand we may have something here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:05 am

Down to 40%

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
850 AM EST SUN DEC 2 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 1050 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ACQUIRE FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY OR MONDAY...AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. IF NECESSARY...ANOTHER
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM THIS
EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby wxman57 » Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:10 am

It already appears to be attached to the front.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 02, 2012 8:13 pm

The time has ran out, but I belive it was briefly a subtropical storm before becoming frontal

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN
ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN AZORES IS PRODUCING AN AREA
OF GALE-FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS IN THE
PROCESS OF ACQUIRING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND DEVELOPMENT INTO
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE
...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby tolakram » Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:08 am

I was fully expecting to see a seasonal grand finale post here. *cough* :)
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