SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#21 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:31 pm

Evan has slow down alot, now pounding the Samoa
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#22 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 1:49 pm

Big shift west at 96HR

Image
Fiji watch out
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#23 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:33 pm

Developing eye

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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#24 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:09 pm

Image

Category 1 Evan pounding the Samoan Islands!

WTPS31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 171.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 171.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 14.1S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 14.3S 170.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 14.5S 171.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 14.9S 173.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 16.2S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 17.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 171.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04P (EVAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING ORGANIZATION OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, INCLUDING THE FORMATION OF A 9 NM DIAMETER EYE.
TC 04P IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE, BUT ITS FORWARD MOTION IS BEGINNING TO SLOW. THE
CYCLONE LIES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A ZONE OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 04P IS ENTERING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH
THE CURRENT NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE WEAKENING AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.
THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE
AFTER TAU 36 AND PUSH THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS (ECMWF, GFS) DEPICTING A SHARPER
POLEWARD TURN PRIOR TO TAU 96. HOWEVER, THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING RELATIVELY
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.//
NNNN
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http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/

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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#25 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:18 pm

Image

Evan is so small, the samoas could barely fit inside his circulation...
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#26 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:23 pm

Image
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#27 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:28 pm

WTPS11 NFFN 130000
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/0211 UTC 2012 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 171.5W AT 130000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR GMS VIS
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
6 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.
DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 24 HOURS WITH PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. CLOUD FILLED EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE CYCLONE LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW DEVELOPING.
SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARDS BY A WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 1.1 WRAP, YIELDING DT OF 4.0, MET
AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS
GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARDS WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 131200 UTC 13.9S 170.9W MOV E AT 03 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 14.0S 171.2W MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 14.4S 172.2W MOV WSW AT 03 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 14.9S 173.7W MOV WSW AT 05 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 140800 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#28 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:36 pm

euro6208 wrote:Image


The inner core is becoming more asymmetric, maybe due to land interaction
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#29 Postby madness » Thu Dec 13, 2012 5:45 am

Link to Nadi TC threat map
http://www.met.gov.fj/aifs_prods/65648.html

Nadi forecast is for a category 4 system to approach the main island of Fiji
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#30 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:07 am

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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#31 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 10:51 am

Terrible situation for the Samoas

Issued by The National Weather Service
Pago Pago, AS
Thu, Dec 13, 2012, 2:58 AM SST

... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUTUILA AND AUNUU...
... A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MANUA AND SWAINS ISLAND...


... WINDS...

TUTUILA AND AUNUU... TODAY... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 TO 95 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 120 MPH WILL INCREASE TO 85 TO 110 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 130 MPH BEFORE THURSDAY NOON.

MANUA AND SWAINS ISLAND... TODAY... STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH 40 TO 50 MPH TONIGHT.

... STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDES...

AS TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN MOVES CLOSER TO AMERICAN SAMOA WATERS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... COMBINED SEAS AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL PRODUCED HAZARDOUS AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL COASTAL WATERS AND SHORES OF AMERICAN SAMOA.

... INLAND FLOODING...

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN UPON AMERICAN SAMOA WILL BE FROM LONG DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN... ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN PASSING SQUALLS. HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Tropical Cyclone

#32 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:04 am

Very impressive CDO with the eye begins to clear out, could reach 90kts before leaving the islands

Image
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Meow

#33 Postby Meow » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:51 am

Evan has been a severe tropical cyclone for long time.


WTPS11 NFFN 131200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 13/1402 UTC 2012 UTC.
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVAN 04F CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 171.3W AT 131200 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR GMS IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT
04 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 80 KNOTS BY 141200 UTC.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
AND ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTENT PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
INTENSIFY BUT EYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED IN THE LAST 3 HOURS. CYCLONE
LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW GOOD TO THE SOUTH.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBD CENTRE LG SURROUND YIELDING
DT OF 4.5. MET = 4.0, PT = 4.5. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARDS FOR THE
NEXT 6 HOURS BEFORE RECURVING IT WESTWARDS.
FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 140000 UTC 13.9S 171.6W MOV W AT 02 KT WITH 70 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 14.1S 172.6W MOV W AT 03 KT WITH 80 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 14.4S 174.2W MOV WSW AT 07 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 14.9S 176.0W MOV WSW AT 09 KT WITH 85
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE
EVAN WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 132000 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#34 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 4:02 pm

Up to 100kts

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 008
WTPS31 PGTW 132100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (EVAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 13.4S 171.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4S 171.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 13.2S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 13.2S 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 13.6S 174.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.2S 176.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.5S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.0S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.3S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 13.4S 171.9W.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 30 FEET.
AT 121318 TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED 79 NM NW OF PAGO_PAGO.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND 142100Z.
Image

Heading for Nadi
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#35 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:24 pm

This won't be a Category 3-equivalent for long.

Image
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#36 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:30 pm

PINHOLE EYE ALERT

Image
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#37 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 13, 2012 7:41 pm

This is beginning to remind me of Cyclone Val. Val was a slow-moving Category 4 that pounded Samoa and American Samoa for 5 days in December 1991.

(Note: Samoa and American Samoa are both obscured by Val's track. They're located around where the loop occurs.)

Image
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#38 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:17 pm

Footage from Apia. (Samoa's capital)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS_hjcGGAzg[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZR6a35EFlg[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9Nwf68Hv8Y[/youtube]
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#39 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Dec 13, 2012 8:24 pm

Vaigaga (Near Apia)

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1CZyz-MEWJM[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyJ4uvreE0s[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gh6cscP66N0[/youtube]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePtRT3fCp_U[/youtube]
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Re: SPAC: Evan - Severe Tropical Cyclone

#40 Postby euro6208 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 9:32 pm

horrible for the Samoan Islands...Evan doesn't want to go away soon so now it's doing a U-turn...
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