SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

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SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:36 am

Image
16.1S 154.1W
Last edited by supercane4867 on Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:08 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 92P

#2 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 9:46 am

3 invest in the SPAC...

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 09/0822 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTRE [1002HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 15.0S 153.0W AT
090900UTC MOVING SLOWLY WEST. POSITION FAIR BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES
CELCIUS.

SYSTEM LIES IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND JUST WEST OF AN
UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED MUCH IN THE PAST
24 HOURS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND FURTHER DEVELOPING AND
MOVING IT SOUTHWEST WARDS.
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 92P

#3 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 09, 2012 11:19 am

since you are still a newbie, can you at least give the coordinates/location as to what area it's near too so we can have a better sense of where it is...the south pacific is huge...it's weird just staring at a picture without any information...thanks :D
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Re: SPAC: INVEST 92P

#4 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:07 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD03F CENTRE [1001HPA] ANALYSED NEAR 17.4S 155.8W 
AT 092100UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS IMAGERY AND 
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. 
 
SYSTEM LIES IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH. LLCC PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
SOUTH.   
 
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARDS 
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. 
 
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#5 Postby euro6208 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 9:49 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.8S 156.9W,
APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OF THE CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE WITH WEAK BAROCLINICITY AND
IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL, COLD-CORE LOW. A 100445Z CORIOLIS IMAGE INDICATES
WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL
DEEP MOISTURE CORE WITH A DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. RECENT SCATTEROMETERY DATA INDICATES 30 TO
35 KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT
CORE WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SLP VALUES
AS LOW AS 1002MB SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
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Re: SPAC: TD 03F

#6 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Mon Dec 10, 2012 3:17 pm

Tropical Deppresion 03F

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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 8:06 pm

It appears to be subtropical

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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#8 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Dec 10, 2012 11:49 pm

:roll:

Special Weather Bulletin Number FIVE for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 03F
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 11/0336 UTC 2012 UTC.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [999HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 17 DECIMAL 9
SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 5 WEST OR ABOUT 55 NAUTICAL MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 180 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF MAUKE AT 1103000
UTC. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 05 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR.
AT THIS STAGE 03F IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER SOUTHERN COOKS WATERS
. THE SQUASH ZONE BETWEEN THE INTENSE
SUBTROPIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F DIRECTS
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER SOUTHERN COOKS.

FOR THE WHOLE OF SOUTHERN COOKS GROUP:
EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS WITH AVERAGE SPEED OF 35 KNOTS AND MOMENTARY
GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO EASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER LAND
FROM LATER TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:02 am

JTWC first mentioned this area as a subtropical cyclone...tropical depression from RSMC? i think not...
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#10 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:13 am

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.8S
156.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 159.0W, APPROXIMATELY 425 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CLEARLY SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE WITH WEAK
BAROCLINICITY AND IS LOCATED JUST EQUATORWARD OF THE STR AXIS UNDER
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL, COLD-CORE LOW. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOP SHOWS A STRONG INFLUX OF DRY COOL AIR ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER, WITH A STEADY
WEAKENING OF THE WARMER TROPICAL MOISTURE LOCATED ALONG THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE AREA. AN OLDER 102131Z OSCAT PASS CROSSED
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LLCC INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 10:53 am

euro6208 wrote:JTWC first mentioned this area as a subtropical cyclone...tropical depression from RSMC? i think not...

RSMC besides the NHC don't have a classification for substropical cyclone, it has to be either tropical or non-tropical
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:06 am

supercane4867 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:JTWC first mentioned this area as a subtropical cyclone...tropical depression from RSMC? i think not...

RSMC besides the NHC don't have a classification for substropical cyclone, it has to be either tropical or non-tropical


nope you are wrong...NHC classifies subtropical cyclones too...something that we in the wpac don't see...that's why they have a little bit of increase in their numbers...
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:23 am

euro6208 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
euro6208 wrote:JTWC first mentioned this area as a subtropical cyclone...tropical depression from RSMC? i think not...

RSMC besides the NHC don't have a classification for substropical cyclone, it has to be either tropical or non-tropical


nope you are wrong...NHC classifies subtropical cyclones too...something that we in the wpac don't see...that's why they have a little bit of increase in their numbers...


Well what I meant is RSMCs don't classify subtropical cyclone, only besides the NHC. Sorry for my horrible grammar
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:05 pm

Special Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN for Southern Cooks ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Dec 11/1256 UTC 2012 UTC.

THE GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY INFORCE FOR SOUTHERN COOKS IS NOW CANCELLED.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL
4 SOUTH 159 DECIMAL 0 WEST OR ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES EAST-NORTHEAST
OF AITUTAKI OR ABOUT 140 NAUTICAL MILES NORTHWEST OF MAUKE AT 1112000
UTC. THE SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING. POSITION FAIR. AT THIS STAGE 03F IS
NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN COOKS
WATERS.
FOR THE WHOLE OF SOUTHERN COOKS GROUPWINDS EASING TO 25 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. SEAS VERY ROUGH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SOUTHEASTERLY SWELLS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN FOR SOUTHERN COOKS AND THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE ROUTINE BULLETIN AT OR BEFORE 111430 UTC.
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Re: SPAC: 03F - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 10:12 pm

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9S
159.0W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5S 160.2W, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY TRACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, WITH THE ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IMPROVING. A RECENT 112222Z OSCAT
PASS INDICATED WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WERE BETWEEN 25
TO 30 KNOTS, WITH A SLIGHT EAST-WEST ELONGATION OF THE LLCC. A LACK
OF CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY INTO THE CENTER HAS BEEN HAMPERING THE CIRCULATION FROM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A COLD-CORE LOW, WHICH IS STIFLING THE OUTFLOW
AND POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS AT
MODERATE LEVELS (10 TO 15 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
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