WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

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supercane4867
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WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

#1 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:47 am

Image

15kts 1010mb 3.0N 167.0E
Last edited by supercane4867 on Fri Dec 28, 2012 11:59 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:00 am

We now have an invest, just one reason to be wary of that system being hinted by the GFS.

I can't believe it is starting to materialize. For all I know the atmospheric condition during mid or late December becomes hostile for any TC activity, that's why it's hard to even think this has a chance.

Have we had any tropical cyclones coming at Christmas time before, in the Western Pacific? I know there was one, the small but fierce Tracy, who tore down parts of Australia around Christmas time...but nothing I heard of from WPAC.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:37 am

Image

East of Kosrae...

93W Floater
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:39 am

I am quite impressed on how organize and deep the convection of this system...it has a long journey to develop...we might see a strong typhoon out of this :eek:

Next name on the list: Wukong - King of the Monkeys...maybe king of typhoons for this year???
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:00 am

The center was relocated at the new blob of convection

5.8N 167.8E
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:03 am

dexterlabio wrote:We now have an invest, just one reason to be wary of that system being hinted by the GFS.

I can't believe it is starting to materialize. For all I know the atmospheric condition during mid or late December becomes hostile for any TC activity, that's why it's hard to even think this has a chance.

Have we had any tropical cyclones coming at Christmas time before, in the Western Pacific? I know there was one, the small but fierce Tracy, who tore down parts of Australia around Christmas time...but nothing I heard of from WPAC.


I googled and found "Typhoon Quantico" which slams the PI on December 25 1918
Image
On December 25, 1918, typhoon Quantico following an abnormal, track hit central Philippines.

The typhoon was first moving west by north, then inclining northward as to be moving decidedly NNW, to the east of central part of the country, and finally recurving backward not only to west by north but to west by south and even to WSW. The typhoon followed a sudden southward migration. It was considered as very unsual, anomalous and surprising in all of the Weather Bureau history of that time.

The forecasters with their technology of that time, noted the fact that the typhoon was moving very slowly from 2pm of December 23 to 6pm of December 24, should be taken in 99 percent of the cases as a sign that the typhoon was recurving northeastward, yet the opposite happened. The typhoon approached the country the following day on December 25.

The areas that suffered the most from the effects of this typhoon were Sorsogon, Albay, Romblon, the northernmost part of Samar and the southern part of Catanduanes.

Also called the "Christmas Typhoon", the typhoon was named Quantico in memorial to the interisland steamer of that name that was cast ashore and wrecked in Tablas Island (Romblon) that dreadful Christmas night with the loss of 21 lives.


References:
The Quantico typhoon, December 25, 1918 by Rev. Jose Coronas, S.J., Manila: Bureau of printing, 1919 Philippine magazine, Volume 34, Number 1, January 1937
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:08 am

Washi part II? Hopefully it won't turn out like this, Mindanao already had enough this year

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#8 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:13 am

that's very interesting @Christmas typhoon of 1918. let's see what this invest will do in the next few days. looks like another rare system brewing. :roll:

to think that the Philippines has enjoyed a really good year from strong tropical cyclones then here comes December with Bopha on the first week and this possible cyclone. for goodness' sake i hope the people from the south will be spared this time.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:17 am

dexterlabio wrote:Have we had any tropical cyclones coming at Christmas time before, in the Western Pacific? I know there was one, the small but fierce Tracy, who tore down parts of Australia around Christmas time...but nothing I heard of from WPAC.


there are many but there in the back of my brain...i forgot their names...
Last edited by euro6208 on Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby mrbagyo » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:18 am

this can make bopha appear like the 3rd round right hand from Marquez that floored Pacquiao, and this system will be the final punch of the 6th
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Re:

#11 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:21 am

dexterlabio wrote:to think that the Philippines has enjoyed a really good year from strong tropical cyclones then here comes December with Bopha on the first week and this possible cyclone. for goodness' sake i hope the people from the south will be spared this time.


what is weird is that this is completely normal for any year (wpac standards) for any area over here but to see them develop and threaten land is never old...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#12 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:35 am

euro6208 wrote:
there are many but there in the back of my brain...i forgot their names...


i know there are a lot but not sure with storms making landfall christmas time. oh yeah,maybe that Guam super typhoon in 1997? for PI though so far I learned only recently about the 1918 christmas typhoon.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#13 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:39 am

Image

Image

Image
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Meow

#14 Postby Meow » Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:15 pm

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 167E WEST SLOWLY.
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Re:

#15 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:18 pm

Meow wrote:LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 167E WEST SLOWLY.

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#16 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 6:21 pm

Don't see much organization right now

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#17 Postby HurricaneBill » Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:43 pm

Christmas typhoons:

1947 Typhoon Jean 95KT (struck the Philippines on Christmas Day)
Image

1959 Super Typhoon Harriet 130KT
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1963 Super Typhoon Susan 135KT (Impacted the Northern Marianas on 24th and 25th)
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1977 Typhoon Mary 95KT
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1981 Typhoon Lee 95KT (struck the Philippines on Christmas Day)
Image

1989 Typhoon Jack 125KT
Image

1993 Typhoon Nell 70KT
Image

1996 Typhoon Fern 80KT
Image

2001 Super Typhoon Faxai 155KT
Image
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#18 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:05 pm

incredible!...thanks HurricaneBill...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#19 Postby euro6208 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:19 pm

Image

well well...wind shear has increased so development is unlikely in the short term...the longer it stays weak, the more west it goes...

Image

vorticity is good...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#20 Postby dexterlabio » Tue Dec 18, 2012 11:00 pm

got to like those info. so Christmas typhoons really happen after all.

the GFS hints solid intensification near PI and hitting Samar then maybe Catanduanes, all the way to Southern Luzon. NOGAPS and CMC show a Bopha-like track towards Southern Visayas and Mindanao.
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