WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

[mrbagyo]

it really needs convection.

my wild guess... slight El NINO.
remember joan and ivan in northern hemisphere &
cyclone susan and ron in southern hemisphere
all are cat five
I won't be surprised if Evan will have a twin...

There's obviously no El-nino, ENSO has been neutral and slightly negative in the past weeks

what i mean slight is borderline none to very weak El NINO. still the SST's are above normal in the tropical pacific.
I'm also wondering what preturbs systems like this and bopha at such low latitude... i'm not familiar with rossby or cckw.
after all, it's just a guess..

lots of rain coming in areas already devastated by bopha...

[euro6208]

[supercane4867]

Very messy windfield, where is the LLC?

[stormstrike]

still, models are in tight agreement with the development of a system including Euro...



Euro model indicating a system on Christmas Day...



i wonder if this will push through...because right now it definitely looks disorganized and shear is still quite high..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think it will be weak... Though another burst of convection came...

[supercane4867]

If there's any chance of significant development it will occur in the S.China Sea

[dexterlabio]

not sure if this even has a chance of bombing out in the SCS. at this time of the year, conditions in that area is not perfect to support TC development...mainly because of the cold and dry northeast monsoon, and and I'm not also sure if SST in the SCS is pretty warm to allow storms to intensify.


IMO this could be a TD or a TS when it nears Visayas. Even it won't be a really really strong storm, both GFS and Euro are indicating a very broad area of convection associated with its circulation. So I must say a huge rainmaker for the whole country this Christmas.

[euro6208]

Guam enjoys yet another year without a direct tropical cyclone hit...

[euro6208]

not sure if this even has a chance of bombing out in the SCS. at this time of the year, conditions in that area is not perfect to support TC development...mainly because of the cold and dry northeast monsoon, and and I'm not also sure if SST in the SCS is pretty warm to allow storms to intensify.


IMO this could be a TD or a TS when it nears Visayas. Even it won't be a really really strong storm, both GFS and Euro are indicating a very broad area of convection associated with its circulation. So I must say a huge rainmaker for the whole country this Christmas.

the south china sea is about as warm as any area of the wpac...if not even warmer...

[dexterlabio]

^pretty warm indeed. won't be surprised if this will pull off a Bopha once in the SCS, but it may also end up with the same fate...dying out to sea because of the cold surge.

[stormstrike]

Latest model run..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Way more Organized...



High chance of development in the next 3-5 days... Hope that it'll not be that strong...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS on December 25, 18 UTC



Wet Christmas for the Visayas, Southern Luzon and parts of Mindanao...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

PAGASA says it won't become a cyclone... (News/Media believes what PAGASA says)

[stormstrike]

Way more Organized...



High chance of development in the next 3-5 days... Hope that it'll not be that strong...

it's still sheared as of the moment..... convection is somehow detached from the center....windshear is quite high on its SE quadrant..

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Way more Organized...



High chance of development in the next 3-5 days... Hope that it'll not be that strong...

it's still sheared as of the moment..... convection is somehow detached from the center....windshear is quite high on its SE quadrant..

The disturbance has a weird center...

[supercane4867]

Center relocated
6.3N-146.5E

[Meow]

PAGASA says it won't become a cyclone... (News/Media believes what PAGASA says)

Tropical cyclones seldom follow what the PAGASA estimates.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3N 156.6E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF
THE LLCC. A 210346Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 201934Z WINDSAT PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS, POSITIONED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURGE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHUUK SHOW SUSTAINED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SLP VALUES NEAR
1004MB WITH ABOUT A 2-MB 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT,
EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAK TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
BASED ON THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LACK OF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[supercane4867]

LOL