WPAC: Wukong - Remnants

[dexterlabio]

if this storm can't just go away, i'd rather see it coming to the north than down south. a lot of people in Mindanao don't even have a roof to shelter them from rains this Christmas. this month has really become a surprise for the Philippines.

[Meow]

if this storm can't just go away, i'd rather see it coming to the north than down south. a lot of people in Mindanao don't even have a roof to shelter them from rains this Christmas. this month has really become a surprise for the Philippines.

Surprises, actually.

[stormstrike]

if this storm can't just go away, i'd rather see it coming to the north than down south. a lot of people in Mindanao don't even have a roof to shelter them from rains this Christmas. this month has really become a surprise for the Philippines.

a little bryt syd here is that majority of the convection from this system is situated at the northern quadrant..
just look at the satellite image..

[stormstrike]

BTW... what's the meaning of this? is JTWC going to upgrade 93W because of this?
they all indicate 25-kt winds...

[dexterlabio]

i don't know, i guess an upgrade to HIGH if not yet a TD?

[dexterlabio]

it is forming another CDO again. i really hate to say this but this already has the look of a tropical depression, at least...




by the way, for the newcomers...if you're going to post pictures, don't forget to upload it first to photobucket or other related sites. direct link of pictures update from time to time and if you post it here, the picture also changes. so please upload first before posting to save these pictures for keeping. Merry Christmas, everyone.

[mrbagyo]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.4N 133.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 70 NM WEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY REVEALS AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING AND
CONVERGENT WINDS INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHEAST MONSOON ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 232249Z PARTIAL SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED FROM THE LLCC AND IS
LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT AREA OF THE NORTHEAST MONSOON.
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS A STRONG MONSOON SURGE EVENT WITH 25 TO
30 KNOT WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC AND CONCURS WITH THE POOR
DEFINITION WITH ONLY 05 TO 10 KNOTS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT IT BEING OFFSET BY
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO
15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[stormstrike]

next JTWC advisory would either be a TCFA or a minor Tropical Depression.....

[Meow]

TS strength

[dexterlabio]

huge ball of convection right now at the center. NRL page has the intensity now at 20kts. maybe there will be a TCFA soon.

[Meow]

huge ball of convection right now at the center. NRL page has the intensity now at 20kts. maybe there will be a TCFA soon.

They already did.



WTPN21 PGTW 241530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 131.5E TO 12.5N 124.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
241500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
130.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING AND ADJACENT TO AN AREA OF CONVERGENT,
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS. A 241138Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC AND
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS POSITIONED NEAR THE LARGE CLUSTER OF
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS SHIFTED NORTH
AND IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE
AREA SHOWING STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC
AND WEAKER 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251530Z.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

the dmax is still early morning tomorrow, isn't it? so i guess this is a stage of development right there.

[dexterlabio]

They already did.



WTPN21 PGTW 241530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3N 131.5E TO 12.5N 124.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
241500Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
130.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N
133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 280 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF TROUGHING AND ADJACENT TO AN AREA OF CONVERGENT,
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS. A 241138Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC AND
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS POSITIONED NEAR THE LARGE CLUSTER OF
PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS SHIFTED NORTH
AND IS BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED UPON RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE
AREA SHOWING STRONG (20-25 KNOTS) NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE LLCC
AND WEAKER 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251530Z.//
NNNN

haha i should have known. but it feels like they should have issued it earlier. the warm seas east of the Philippines really got some surprises.

[supercane4867]

93W is wrapping up nicely...I might have downcasted it somewhat...

[stormstrike]

too bad wind shear is still a party pooper for 93W

[xtyphooncyclonex]

too bad wind shear is still a party pooper for 93W

No... Wind shear over Visayas yesterday was 30 knots, it decreased to 20 knots.

[mrbagyo]

Philippine sea doing its thing again despite some not so favorable wind shear... that's a lot of rain. western visayas ( Samar , and especially Leyte is very prone to nasty landslides and flash flood) I hope they are well prepared for this one.

[supercane4867]

Currently 93W is in a sweet spot with decreasing shear, but the overall environment will prevent any significent strengthening

[dexterlabio]

don't be too reliant of the shear though, because this system is also relying on both the poleward exhaust and warm sea surface temperature. it's like chopping off the cloud tops but the convection keeps on regenerating. there were some systems this year that managed to develop in spite of unfriendly shear, one is Doksuri. IMO it will be finished big time when it ingest some cold and dry air from the north.

but i like that spirit, maybe our positive thoughts can help.

[supercane4867]

don't be too reliant of the shear though, because this system is also relying on both the poleward exhaust and warm sea surface temperature. it's like chopping off the cloud tops but the convection keeps on regenerating. there were some systems this year that managed to develop in spite of unfriendly shear, one is Doksuri. IMO it will be finished big time when it ingest some cold and dry air from the north.

but i like that spirit, maybe our positive thoughts can help.

Doksuri remained a weak and decoupled storm throught out its life, and this one should end up with the same if it becomes anything...